Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.
QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.
Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.
Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.
Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.
Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.
It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.
Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.
Job openings and voluntary quits jumped by the most in over a year, layoffs and discharges plunged.
Trump’s tariffs — a tax on profit margins of US & foreign companies — will push in the same direction as Biden’s taxpayer-and-debt-funded incentives.
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