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CMBS
Finance

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever

November 30, 2024

Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion.

tax receipts
Finance

Federal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3

November 29, 2024

The magnitude and speed of the ratio’s 2-year spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.

Price
Finance

Inflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High

November 27, 2024

Core services inflation is the biggie, and it’s going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.

New Single-Family Houses
Finance

Inventory of New Single-Family Houses Jumps to Highest since 2007. Unsold Spec Houses Jump to Highest since 2009 as Sales Suddenly Plunge

November 26, 2024

Bring on the supply. Homebuilders may need to do some serious price cutting to move their inventory.

EVs
Finance

Americans Buy Ever Bigger, More Powerful, More Fuel-Efficient Trucks, SUVs & Cars. EVs Escalate the Horsepower War

November 25, 2024

“The roughly linear increase in specific power” of ICE vehicles over the past 50 years “does not appear to be slowing”: EPA.

Price
Finance

US Treasury Debt Held by Foreign Investors: Ravenous Appetite for Juicy Yields, Juicy Compared to their Stuff at Home

November 18, 2024

Will foreign investors buy the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt? Increasingly crucial question. But yield solves demand problems.

Price
Finance

Auto-Loan Balances, Burden, Subprime & Prime Delinquency Rates, and Subprime Dealer America’s Car-Mart in Q3 2024

November 16, 2024

Subprime is always in trouble, and now, after the reckless-subprime lending era, more so. Prime is in pristine shape. Car-Mart joins our Imploded Stocks.

Price
Finance

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Oct. 2024: Single-Family Prices Drop Most in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa. Condo Prices Hit 3-Year Low

November 15, 2024

Toronto single-family prices -19% from peak, back to Oct. 2021. In Montreal, Quebec City, Edmonton, and Winnipeg, prices near all-time highs.

Price
Finance

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, the Burden of Housing Debt, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q3 2024

November 14, 2024

HELOC balances surged, mortgages not so much, and incomes grew a lot faster than housing debt.

Finance

After More Up-Revisions, “Core” PPI & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Get Much Worse, Accelerating All Year

November 14, 2024

But goods prices are relatively tame. Energy prices plunge.

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