In a resilient performance amid volatile energy markets, ExxonMobil (XOM) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed Wall Street estimates, driven by unprecedented production levels that mitigated the impact of declining oil prices. The company’s focus on high-margin assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana underscored its operational strength, even as broader industry headwinds persisted. This result highlights how U.S. oil majors are navigating a landscape of lower commodity prices through efficiency and volume growth.ExxonMobil’s Q4 2025 Earnings BreakdownExxonMobil announced Q4 2025 earnings of $6.5 billion, or $1.53 per share on a GAAP basis, representing a 14% decline from $7.6 billion in Q4 2024.
Excluding identified items, adjusted earnings reached $7.3 billion, or $1.71 per share, beating analyst expectations of $1.68 per share.
Revenue for the quarter was $82.31 billion, slightly down 1.3% year-over-year but above forecasts of $81.43 billion.
The standout factor was production: Exxon achieved an annual upstream output of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), its highest in over 40 years.
Quarterly Permian production hit a record 1.8 million boe/d, while Guyana’s gross output reached 875,000 boe/d.
These volumes helped offset weaker crude realizations, with cash flow from operations at $12.7 billion and free cash flow of $5.6 billion.
For the full year 2025, earnings totaled $28.8 billion, down from $33.7 billion in 2024, reflecting broader price pressures.
Shareholder returns remained robust, with $37.2 billion distributed, including $20 billion in share repurchases.
Exxon also advanced sustainability goals, reducing greenhouse gas intensity by over 20%.
Comparing U.S. Majors (Exxon and Chevron) to European Peers (Shell and BP)
U.S.-based Exxon and Chevron demonstrated relative strength compared to their European counterparts, Shell and BP, in 2025, benefiting from diversified portfolios and aggressive production ramps. European firms faced steeper profit declines amid refining weakness and transition-related costs. Below is a comparative overview of Q4 2025 and full-year results:
|
Company
|
Q4 2025 Adjusted Earnings
|
Q4 2025 Revenue
|
Full-Year 2025 Earnings
|
Key Highlights
|
YoY Change (Full Year)
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ExxonMobil
|
$7.3B ($1.71/share)
|
$82.31B
|
$28.8B
|
Record 4.7M boe/d production; beat estimates
|
-14.6%
|
|
Chevron
|
$3.0B ($1.52/share)
|
$46.87B
|
$12.3B
|
Record 3.723M boe/d production; 12% YoY growth
|
-30.5%
|
|
Shell
|
$3.66B (missed estimates)
|
Not specified
|
$23.72B
|
LNG margins down; dividend up 4%
|
-16%
|
|
BP
|
Results pending (Feb 10, 2026)
|
Not available
|
Not available
|
Flat production; $4-5B impairments expected
|
Underlying ETR ~42%
|
Exxon and Chevron’s U.S.-centric operations provided a buffer against global price volatility, with both achieving record outputs
Chevron’s Q4 adjusted earnings beat expectations despite a 10% revenue drop, fueled by 16% U.S. production growth and cost reductions.
In contrast, Shell’s full-year profit fell 16% due to narrower LNG and refining margins, though it extended share buybacks.
BP’s preview indicates flat Q4 production and significant impairments in gas and low-carbon segments, with net debt expected at $22-23 billion.
Overall, U.S. majors emphasized upstream efficiency, while Europeans grappled with diversification challenges.
What Investors Should Watch in Q1 2026
As the industry enters Q1 2026, investors face a mixed outlook shaped by policy shifts, supply surpluses, and geopolitical risks. Key considerations include:Supply-Demand Dynamics: The IEA forecasts a 3.8 million boe/d global surplus in Q1, potentially pressuring prices.
OPEC+ has paused output increases, but non-OPEC growth (e.g., from the U.S., Brazil) could add 1.2 million boe/d.
Watch for Brent around $55-65/barrel, with volatility in the $56-66 range early on.
Policy and Geopolitical Shifts: U.S. policy changes under new administration could boost domestic production and LNG exports, but tariffs and Venezuela developments may disrupt flows.
Monitor Middle East tensions and fiscal dominance trends, which could elevate costs.
Capital Discipline and Costs: Majors like Exxon are prioritizing returns over growth, with steady demand supporting fundamentals.
Rising operational costs and digital transformation will be critical; look for firms advancing LNG (e.g., 80+ bcm new capacity, led by U.S.).
Sustainability and Transition: Investors should evaluate GHG reductions and low-carbon investments, as regulatory pressures mount.
Overall, Q1 2026 may test resilience, but disciplined operators with strong U.S. assets could offer value amid potential oversupply. Investors prioritizing long-term stability over short-term swings may find opportunities in majors like Exxon and Chevron.
Sources: theenergynewsbeat.substack.com,
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