Activist-made climate graphic misuses smoothed proxy data to exaggerate modern warming, with IPCC silence fueling ongoing alarmism and misinformation.
Introduction: Unmasking a Climate Myth
One of the most influential and deceptive climate graphics circulating today did not originate in any peer-reviewed scientific publication.
Instead, after a thorough investigation, I traced its roots to a 2018 activist document titled “Don’t Mention the Emergency?“ published by the Climate Emergency Declaration group. [emphasis, links added]
On page 7 of this document, a graphic dramatically juxtaposes heavily smoothed temperature proxy reconstructions with modern instrumental temperature data, falsely presenting today’s warming as unprecedented and alarming.
Further investigation revealed that this misleading graphic was inspired by a 2013 blog post, “The two epochs of Marcott” from OurChangingClimate.
This blog relied heavily on the Marcott et al. (2013) reconstruction, which explicitly warned about significant limitations in its data:
Despite Marcott’s clear admission of these critical limitations, climate activists, media, and even the IPCC repeatedly employ distorted visualizations of this reconstruction, fueling unjustified alarmism.
Why have the authors and the IPCC remained silent when confronted with such blatant misuse of their data?
My Investigations into Climate Data Manipulation
In previous detailed analyses, I’ve exposed similar deceptive practices, highlighting fundamental flaws and intentional oversights in climate reconstructions.
In one piece, I revealed how smoothing techniques erase natural climate variability, artificially inflating perceived modern warming.
Another investigation critically examined speleothem proxies from Moondyne Cave in Australia, emphasizing severe discrepancies between proxy-derived temperature records and instrumental measurements.
These inconsistencies question the reliability of widely cited climate reconstructions.
I have also systematically evaluated proxy limitations: spanning ice cores, tree rings, corals, paleosols, and plant stomata, revealing substantial uncertainties and inherent inaccuracies undermining confident claims about historical climate conditions.
This comprehensive analysis consistently demonstrates that proclamations of unprecedented warming rely on deeply flawed interpretations of proxy data.
Understanding Climate Proxy Reconstructions
Climate proxy reconstructions use natural archives, such as tree rings, ice cores, coral growth, and cave formations (speleothems) to estimate past climate conditions before modern instruments.
These methods typically involve measuring stable isotopes, chemical compositions, or growth patterns influenced by environmental factors. However, proxies inherently smooth out short-term climate fluctuations, preserving mainly long-term trends.
Marcott’s reconstruction, for example, relies on sediment cores and ice core isotopic data, which are aggregated and statistically smoothed, removing variability shorter than 300 years.
Thus, today’s short-term warming appears artificially exaggerated when compared directly to these heavily smoothed historical datasets.
Who Profits from Climate Alarmism?
The persistent distortion of climate data is not merely accidental… it is actively incentivized. Organizations like the IPCC, significantly funded by government agencies, environmental activist groups, and private foundations, have vested interests in perpetuating a narrative of crisis.
The silence from researchers whose work is frequently misrepresented, such as Marcott, often reflects dependency on continued funding, creating a cycle perpetuating misinformation.
This systemic bias compromises scientific objectivity, transforming science into advocacy rather than unbiased investigation.
Top photo by Femke Schreurs on Unsplash
Irrational Fear is written by climatologist Dr. Matthew Wielicki and is reader-supported. If you value what you have read here, please consider subscribing and supporting the work that goes into it.
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