ENB Pub Note: I believe Tesla will survive and be a significant investment. They are not just a car company, and their technology sets the standard for self driving cars. When looking at investments I look at technology and the charts.
Tesla (TSLA) released its Q1 2025 earnings after market close on April 22, 2025, as scheduled. However, since the current time is 12:01 PM CDT on April 22, 2025, the earnings report has not yet been released, and the market reaction to the earnings cannot be assessed. I can, however, provide insights into the stock’s performance leading up to the earnings and expectations based on available data.
Pre-Earnings Stock Performance
As of the latest real-time financial data, Tesla’s stock price at 12:45 PM CDT on April 22, 2025, is $240.736 USD, reflecting a modest increase from the previous day’s close of $227.5. Throughout the day, the stock has shown some volatility:
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It opened at $230.96 and reached a high of $242.726 and a low of $227.956.
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From 9:30 AM to 12:45 PM CDT, the stock price rose from $234.3 to $240.736, with a peak of $241.991 at 12:00 PM, indicating a positive trend heading into the earnings release.
Over the past month, Tesla’s stock has experienced significant fluctuations:
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On March 24, 2025, it was at $282.3507, but it dropped to $218.79 by April 8 before recovering to $269.36 on April 9.
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The stock closed at $227.86 on April 21, showing a decline of about 14.5% from its March 24 value, reflecting broader market concerns and Tesla-specific challenges.
Over the past year, Tesla’s stock has seen a broader range:
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It started at $183.28 in April 2024, peaked at $404.6 in January 2025, and is now at $240.736, a 31.3% increase year-over-year but a significant 40.5% drop from its January peak.
Analyst Expectations and Market Sentiment
Analysts and investors were bracing for a challenging earnings report due to several factors:
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Tesla reported a 13% year-over-year drop in Q1 2025 deliveries (336,681 vehicles), the largest in its history, attributed to production halts for a Model Y refresh, backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement, and rising competition from Chinese EV makers like BYD [Web ID: 1] [Web ID: 8] [Web ID: 16].
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Wall Street consensus forecasted revenue of $21.345 billion (a $1 billion drop from Q1 2024) and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, down from $0.74 in Q4 2024 [Web ID: 6] [Web ID: 11] [Web ID: 12].
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Options pricing suggested traders expected a 9.3% stock price move in either direction post-earnings, reflecting high volatility [Web ID: 9].
Sentiment on X leading up to the earnings was mixed:
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Some users expressed cautious optimism, noting an upside bias in pre-market trading and hoping for strong guidance from Musk during the earnings call [Post ID: 7].
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Others were bearish, citing a weakening net options sentiment and expecting poor guidance due to ongoing sales declines [Post ID: 2] [Post ID: 4].
Key Factors Likely to Influence Post-Earnings Performance
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Financial Metrics: Investors are focused on automotive gross margins, given Tesla’s cost-cutting measures (average cost per vehicle reduced to below $35,000) and discounts offered to boost sales [Web ID: 11] [Web ID: 12].
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Energy Segment: Tesla deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q1 2025, a potential bright spot that could offset automotive weakness [Web ID: 11].
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Guidance and Innovation: Musk’s commentary on Full Self-Driving (FSD), robotaxis (set to launch in Austin by June 2025), and the affordable vehicle model (expected mid-2025) will be critical. Positive updates could drive a rally, while delays or lack of clarity might exacerbate the stock’s decline [Web ID: 1] [Web ID: 3].
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Geopolitical and Brand Impact: Ongoing protests and Musk’s controversial role in the Trump administration have hurt Tesla’s brand, particularly in Europe (market share dropped to 9.3% from 17.9%) and China (sales down 11.5% in March) [Web ID: 10] [Web ID: 16].
Potential Post-Earnings Scenarios
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Bullish Case: If Tesla exceeds revenue and EPS expectations, provides strong guidance on FSD and new models, and shows resilience in its energy segment, the stock could rally. A 9.3% upward move (as implied by options pricing) would push the stock to around $263.14 [Web ID: 9].
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Bearish Case: If earnings miss expectations, guidance disappoints, or Musk’s comments fail to address brand damage and competition, the stock could drop significantly. A 9.3% downward move would bring it to around $218.34, near its recent low of $218.79 on April 8.
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Volatility: Tesla has historically been volatile post-earnings, with an average move of 12.3% over the past four quarters, ranging from a 22% jump to a 12% slump [Web ID: 9].
Conclusion
As of 12:01 PM CDT on April 22, 2025, Tesla’s stock is at $240.736, showing a slight upward trend on the day but down significantly from its yearly high. The market is poised for a volatile reaction to the Q1 2025 earnings, with analysts expecting a tough quarter but investors hoping for positive guidance on Tesla’s AI and growth initiatives. To assess the actual post-earnings performance, you would need to check the stock price and market reaction after the earnings release later today. Would you like me to provide a follow-up once that data is available?