As California’s push toward a zero-emissions future accelerates, the state’s petroleum refining sector is undergoing a dramatic transformation. With refinery closures already underway and more potentially on the horizon, California is increasingly dependent on imported refined products to meet its massive fuel demand. This shift raises critical questions about supply stability, price volatility, and broader economic repercussions for the West Coast. In this article, we’ll break down the current import volumes for key products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and others, examine the state’s shrinking refinery base, and explore the potential fallout if additional facilities are shuttered.
California’s Refinery Landscape: A Shrinking Footprint
California once boasted over 40 refineries in the early 1990s, but regulatory pressures, high operating costs, and the state’s aggressive climate policies have whittled that number down significantly. As of early 2026, the state has approximately 10 operational refineries with a combined crude oil processing capacity of about 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This represents roughly 9% of the nation’s total refining capacity, making California the third-largest refining state after Texas and Louisiana.
However, recent closures are eroding this base:
Phillips 66’s 139,000 bpd Los Angeles-area refinery ceased operations in December 2025.
Valero’s 145,000 bpd Benicia refinery is slated to shut down by the end of April 2026.
These two facilities alone account for about 17% of California’s refining capacity and 11% of the West Coast’s (PADD 5) total.
Smaller refineries, such as those in Bakersfield and the San Joaquin Valley, continue to operate, but the major players—Chevron’s Richmond and El Segundo, Marathon’s Carson and Wilmington, and PBF’s Martinez—handle the bulk of production. Industry leaders like Chevron have warned that additional regulations could prompt further exits, potentially leaving only six to eight major refineries by the end of the decade. This trend isn’t hypothetical; the state has already lost 60% of its refineries since 1992, with conversions to renewable fuels (like Phillips 66’s Rodeo facility in 2024) further reducing petroleum output.
California’s refineries produce specialized cleaner-burning fuels, such as California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG) and California Air Resources Board (CARB) diesel, to comply with stringent environmental standards. These unique formulations limit the state’s ability to source replacements domestically, as few out-of-state refineries are equipped to produce them.
Current Fuel Demand and In-State Production
California remains a petroleum powerhouse in terms of consumption, ranking as the nation’s second-largest user of refined products behind Texas, accounting for about 9% of U.S. total consumption. In 2023, the state’s daily petroleum demand averaged around 1.78 million bpd, with transportation fuels dominating:Gasoline: Second-largest consumer nationally (after Texas), with demand driven by 27 million licensed drivers.
Diesel (Distillate Fuel): Critical for agriculture, trucking, and shipping.
Jet Fuel: Largest U.S. consumer, supporting major airports and military bases like Travis Air Force Base.
Other Products: Includes heating oil, asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemical feedstocks.
In-state refineries supply the majority of these needs, operating at near-maximum capacity due to high demand and isolation from other U.S. refining hubs (no major pipelines connect California to the Gulf Coast). EIA data shows that California’s refineries processed about 1.64 million bpd of crude at the start of 2025, but actual output of finished products varies.
For instance, Gasoline yield typically accounts for around 46% of refinery output nationally, with distillates at 30% and jet fuel at 11%.
Foreign crude imports (from Iraq, Brazil, Guyana, and Ecuador) supplied nearly two-thirds of refinery inputs in 2024, as domestic production from Alaska and California fields has declined.
Despite strong in-state production, gaps arise from outages, maintenance, or demand spikes, forcing reliance on imports.
How Much Is California Importing Today?
California’s isolation—coupled with its unique fuel specs—means imports are essential to bridge supply shortfalls. Total petroleum product imports hit a four-year high of 279,000 bpd in May 2025, per Kpler data, with about 70% originating from Asia (e.g., South Korea and India). By late 2025, West Coast (primarily California) gasoline imports alone averaged 119,000 bpd year-to-date, totaling over 35 million barrels, according to EIA figures. This marks a record since at least 2004 and reflects the early impacts of refinery reductions.
Breaking it down by product based on CEC and EIA reports for 2024-2025:
|
Product
|
Average Daily Imports (2025 YTD)
|
Annualized Volume (Estimate)
|
Key Sources
|
Notes
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gasoline (Including Blending Components)
|
~119,000 bpd (West Coast total; CA ~80-90%)
|
~43 million barrels
|
Bahamas (40% of ship-borne), India, South Korea, Gulf Coast (via Jones Act reroutes)
|
Imports surged to 5.3 million barrels in March 2025 alone; up 36% YoY. Total Q1 2025: 10.6 million barrels. Record highs post-Phillips closure.
|
|
Diesel (Distillate Fuel Oil)
|
~20,000-25,000 bpd (estimated from quarterly data)
|
~7-9 million barrels
|
Asia (India, South Korea), Middle East
|
Low imports relative to demand; Q1 2025: 2.3 million barrels (down 63% YoY). California often exports diesel (9.3 million barrels in Q1 2025). About 20% of total diesel comes from foreign sources like India.
|
|
Jet Fuel (Kerosene-Type)
|
~30,000-40,000 bpd (estimated; part of total imports)
|
~11-15 million barrels
|
Asia, Gulf Coast
|
California imports ~20% of its jet fuel from abroad (e.g., India). U.S. exports averaged 219,000 bpd nationally in 2025, but CA relies on imports due to high demand (first in nation).
|
|
Other Products (Heating Oil, Asphalt, etc.)
|
~100,000 bpd (part of total petroleum imports)
|
~36 million barrels
|
Various global
|
Includes feedstocks; total petroleum imports averaged 279,000 bpd in peak months like May 2025.
|
These figures highlight California’s growing vulnerability: Gasoline imports have more than doubled since 2023, with seaborne finished gasoline reaching 13 million barrels in 2025.
What Happens If the Remaining Refineries Close?
The scenario—seven refineries remaining, with six slated to close and one likely—overstates the immediate risk but underscores a plausible trajectory. If regulations push Chevron or others out, California could lose another 20-30% of capacity, effectively halving its refining base. EIA forecasts suggest this would exacerbate supply shortfalls, as the West Coast lacks infrastructure to easily import from other U.S. regions.
Projected Supply Impacts:
Short-Term (Post-Valero Closure in April 2026): Loss of 145,000 bpd capacity could reduce in-state gasoline and diesel production by 8-10%. Imports would need to rise by 50-100%, potentially to 400,000+ bpd total petroleum products.
Full Scenario (All Major Refineries Close): A near-total reliance on imports (80-100% of supply) from Asia, the Middle East, and rerouted U.S. sources. Daily needs: 1.78 million bpd, met via tankers (transit times: 2-4 weeks), increasing exposure to global disruptions.
Price Implications:EIA projects a modest West Coast gasoline price increase to $4.19/gallon in 2026 (from $4.09 in 2025), offset by lower crude prices. However, independent analyses warn of steeper hikes: 15-50 cents/gallon short-term, with spikes to $7-8/gallon during outages or geopolitical events (e.g., Middle East tensions).
Diesel and jet fuel could see similar volatility, with premiums 20-30% above national averages. Recent data shows California gasoline is already 40 cents higher in February 2026 ($4.58/gallon) due to early closure effects.
Long-term: $5-8/gallon baseline if imports dominate, per USC studies, though state officials dismiss these as industry-biased.
Economic Fallout: A Potential Western Collapse?
While “economic collapse” might sound alarmist, the ripple effects could be severe for the western U.S., where California supplies 88% of Nevada’s fuel and significant portions for Arizona and Oregon.
We have hit the Point of No Return for the California Energy Crisis
Higher prices would hammer key sectors:
Transportation and Logistics: Trucking costs up 20-30%, inflating goods prices and disrupting supply chains. California’s ports handle 40% of U.S. imports—diesel shortages could slow shipping.
Agriculture: Diesel-dependent farms (e.g., almonds, walnuts) face bankruptcy risks; one farmer noted that equipment operation could become untenable.
Aviation and Military: Jet fuel shortages threaten commercial flights and bases, posing national security risks (e.g., reliance on Russian-sourced Indian imports).
Broader Economy: Lost refinery jobs (8,700 direct, 126,000 indirect) and tax revenues ($21 million annually per closure nationally). Price spikes could add $1-2 billion in annual consumer costs, slowing GDP growth by 0.5-1% in the West.
In a worst-case full shutdown, California would mirror Hawaii’s import-dependent model but at vastly larger scale—vulnerable to storms, wars, or tanker delays. Critics argue this accelerates the EV transition, but with only 10% EV adoption, the pain would hit hard and fast. Policymakers are scrambling for solutions like inventory mandates and pipeline proposals, but without policy reversals, the West’s fuel future looks expensive and precarious.
For the Energy News Beat audience, this isn’t just data—it’s a wake-up call. California’s experiment with rapid decarbonization is testing the limits of energy security, and the costs could soon spill over to the rest of us.
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