The U.S. presidential election promises to dominate global news coverage for the next 24 hours, and oil markets will be watching developments closely after both WTI and Brent banked gains from the OPEC+ decision on Monday.
– The stormy political landscape in the US stands in stark contrast with Europe where several windless days have led to a rebound in natural gas prices, sending TTF futures back to €41 per MWh ($14 per mmBtu).
– In Germany alone, gas-fired generation accounted for more than 60% of the country’s energy mix due to low wind, sending spot electricity prices to their highest since early January, just below €100 per MWh.
– Europe’s gas markets are also following the path of Tropical Storm Rafael after it formed in the Caribbean recently, as its Louisiana-bound trajectory could prompt closures of offshore platforms and liquefaction terminals.
– Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to make landfall in Cuba this Wednesday already as a Category I hurricane, entering the waters of the US Gulf of Mexico around November 7.
Market Movers
– The world’s largest oil producer Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has maintained its $31.1 billion quarterly dividend despite posting a 15.4% year-over-year decline in Q3 earnings, booking a net income of $27.6 billion.
– Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has been unsuccessful with its exploration drive in Canada’s offshore waters, with the Cappahayden South well failing to find commercial volumes of oil and gas.
– Mining giant AngloAmerican (LON:AAL) has agreed to sell its 33.3% minority stake in the Jellinbah metcoal joint venture to Australian power generation firm Zashvin for $1.1 billion, as part of divestment spree.
Tuesday, November 05, 2024
The US presidential election is looming large over the oil markets as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris continue to poll neck and neck ahead of what promises to be a long and tight election night. The decision of the ‘great eight’ of OPEC+ helped push Brent slightly higher, now trading above $75 per barrel, but the market remains focused primarily on the U.S. election.
OPEC+ Postpones Supply Return to December. Eight OPEC+ members that were set to start raising oil production in December have decided to delay the restart by one month, raising the probability that the oil group would not unwind its 2.2 million b/d output cuts in 2025.
Pipelines Become a Worry for US Producers Again. The spread between WTI prices in West Texas and Houston has been widening in the last two months on dwindling pipeline space, with crude evacuation capacity to Corpus Christi already 97% full and Houston filling up quickly.
US Refiner Confirms Closure of Key Plant. US chemicals giant LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) detailed its anticipated plan to permanently shut its 263,776 b/d Houston refinery in Q1 2025, running it at 90% capacity this quarter and then shutting one CDU each month in January-February.
Saudi Economy Returns to Growth. Despite oil production staying put at 9 million b/d, Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated an annual 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024 after four straight quarterly contractions, with 2025 annual growth expected to strengthen to 4.6%.
Price of Iranian Oil Surges on Export Risks. Discounts on Iranian barrels sold to Chinese customers are at their tightest since the Trump-era reinstatement of sanctions on Tehran, as geopolitical tensions and fears of supply disruptions pushed the differential of Iranian Light to -$4 per barrel to Brent.
Environmentalists Set to Block Key US Lithium Mine. Environmental groups have filed a lawsuit challenging the US Interior Department’s approval of Ioneer’s (ASX:INR) Rhyolite Ridge lithium mine in Nevada, the first lithium-mining site in the US, saying it posed an existential risk to a rare breed of buckwheat.
UK Power Prices Soar on Import Needs. Electricity prices in the United Kingdom jumped to £115 per MWh this week, their highest in almost a year, as low wind power generation across the country prompted the country’s generators to import more, mostly from nuclear-rich France and hydro-rich Norway.
UAE is Expanding into the Mediterranean. After forming a JV that eyes Egypt’s offshore waters, the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC has reportedly expressed interest in taking a stake in Cyprus’ deepwater gas fields, however preferring to invest in de-risked assets rather than exploration.
Venezuelan Oil Exports Near One-Million Threshold. Oil exports from Venezuela rose to their highest since early 2020, posting an average of 947,000 b/d for crude and fuel oil in October, up 21% month-over-month, as crude shipments of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) soared to a new record high of 280,000 b/d.
China Traders Exploit Benchmark Gaps. A whopping 5 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude was delivered to the Shanghai International Exchange this month, an unusual volume for an otherwise mute trade, with Vitol supplying the most after domestic yuan-pegged futures for crude soared above Brent.
Oil Hedging Becomes the New Trading Frontier. A total of 68.44 million barrels of oil in Brent futures and options were traded in October, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange, marking the highest monthly volume ever, as producers and traders hedged against war risks.
Canada Set to Tighten 2030 Emission Targets. The draft regulations issued by the Canadian government this week stipulate a cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector at 35% below 2019 levels by the end of this decade, potentially prompting output cuts further down the road.
Guyana and Suriname Weigh Gas Ambitions. Guyana and Suriname could supply 12 million metric tonnes of LNG at a competitive price by the next decade if both South American countries decide to monetize their natural gas resources, with their non-associated reserves estimated at 13 TCf.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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