OPEC+ Has Come Close to Its Limit, Leaving Prices Open to Spike

In the volatile world of global energy markets, OPEC+—the alliance of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia—is pushing against its production boundaries. With spare capacity dwindling, the group finds itself in a precarious position where any major disruption could send crude prices soaring. As of October 2025, recent decisions to modestly increase output highlight the tightrope walk between stabilizing supply and avoiding a glut, all while geopolitical tensions simmer.

This vulnerability is amplified by ongoing conflicts and incidents that threaten energy infrastructure, raising alarms for consumers and economies worldwide.

Geopolitical Tensions Fueling Supply Risks

The energy sector is no stranger to geopolitical upheaval, but 2025 has seen an escalation that directly impacts oil supply chains. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both sides have targeted each other’s energy assets, creating ripple effects across global markets. Ukraine has intensified its drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, including a recent hit on the largest oil terminal in occupied Crimea, which sparked a massive fire and disrupted operations.

These attacks are accelerating, exacerbating Russia’s fuel crisis and potentially reducing its export capacity.

Conversely, Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s natural gas and power facilities, leaving thousands without electricity and threatening Europe’s energy security as winter approaches.

Closer to home, the United States faced its own shock with the massive explosion at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery in California on October 2, 2025. The blast, which originated in a jet fuel unit, led to a large fire that forced the facility offline.

This incident not only disrupted local fuel supplies but is expected to drive up gas prices in the region, underscoring how even domestic accidents can amplify global price pressures.

With refineries already operating near capacity, such events highlight the fragility of the supply chain. These disruptions come at a time when OPEC+ is already stretched thin. The group’s ability to ramp up production in response to crises is limited, potentially leaving markets exposed to sharp price spikes if demand surges or further supply issues arise.

OPEC+ Spare Capacity: Who’s Holding the Reserves?

Spare production capacity—the amount of oil that can be quickly brought online—is a critical buffer against market shocks. However, OPEC+’s collective spare capacity is shrinking rapidly, estimated at around 5.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in recent assessments.

This buffer is disproportionately held by a few key members, with the bulk concentrated in the Middle East. Here’s a breakdown of the primary countries with meaningful spare capacity as of 2025: