On September 25, 2025, Russia announced plans to extend its gasoline export ban through the end of 2025 and introduce a partial ban on diesel exports targeting non-producers, as reported by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. These measures aim to stabilize Russia’s domestic fuel market amid shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and rising domestic demand. The restrictions, however, are poised to ripple through global energy markets, reducing available fuel supplies and potentially driving up prices for key consumers. This article examines the volume of gasoline and diesel likely to be removed from global markets and identifies countries that could face higher prices as a result.
Background: Russia’s Fuel Export Restrictions
Russia, a major player in global energy markets, has faced recurring fuel shortages due to refinery disruptions and seasonal demand spikes. Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced refining capacity by nearly a fifth on some days, exacerbating supply constraints. To prioritize domestic supply, Russia has extended its gasoline export ban, initially set to expire on September 30, 2025, and introduced a partial diesel export ban targeting resellers—companies that purchase diesel domestically and ship it abroad—while sparing producers. These measures follow a pattern of temporary export curbs, including a full diesel and gasoline ban in 2023 and intermittent gasoline restrictions in 2024 and 2025.
Estimating the Volume of Fuel Removed from Global Markets
To quantify the impact, we can draw on Russia’s 2023 production and export data, as well as recent trends. According to Enerdata, Russia produced 43 million metric tons (Mt) of gasoline and 88 Mt of diesel in 2023, exporting 5 Mt of gasoline (approximately 110,000 barrels per day, or bpd) and 35 Mt of diesel (approximately 1.07 million bpd). These figures provide a baseline for estimating the volume removed from global markets due to the 2025 bans.
Gasoline Exports
- 2023 Baseline: Russia exported 5 Mt of gasoline, equivalent to about 110,000 bpd. This accounted for roughly 3% of Russia’s petroleum export value and less than 1% of global seaborne gasoline trade.
- 2025 Impact: The extended gasoline export ban, affecting both producers and resellers, is expected to halt nearly all seaborne gasoline exports through December 2025. Data from August 2025 shows gasoline exports already collapsed to zero due to earlier restrictions, compared to 4.3 Mt for January–August 2024. Assuming the ban persists for the last quarter of 2025 (October–December), approximately 1.25 Mt (27,500 bpd for 90 days) could be removed from global markets, based on 2023 export averages. However, exemptions for Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Armenia mean some exports will continue under intergovernmental agreements, potentially reducing the net removal to 80–90% of this volume, or roughly 1–1.1 Mt (22,000–25,000 bpd).
Diesel Exports
- 2023 Baseline: Russia exported 35 Mt of diesel (1.07 million bpd), making it the world’s top seaborne diesel exporter, accounting for over 13% of global seaborne diesel trade.
- 2025 Impact: The partial diesel ban targets resellers, not producers, which limits its scope. Most of Russia’s diesel exports come directly from producers, so the ban’s impact depends on the share of reseller exports. While precise data on reseller volumes is scarce, estimates suggest resellers account for 10–20% of diesel exports, or 100,000–200,000 bpd. Assuming the ban removes 15% of diesel exports (a conservative midpoint), approximately 160,000 bpd (5.2 Mt annually, or 1.3 Mt for October–December 2025) could be withheld from global markets. This is significantly less than the 2023 full diesel ban, which removed all 1.07 million bpd temporarily.
Total Fuel Removal
- Gasoline: ~1–1.1 Mt (22,000–25,000 bpd) for Q4 2025.
- Diesel: ~1.3 Mt (160,000 bpd) for Q4 2025.
- Total: Approximately 2.3–2.4 Mt of fuel (182,000–185,000 bpd) removed from global markets in the last quarter of 2025, assuming no early lifting of restrictions.
These estimates account for exemptions and the partial nature of the diesel ban but are subject to uncertainty due to fluctuating export patterns and potential refinery recovery.Global Market ImpactThe removal of Russian fuel from global markets, though limited compared to crude oil exports, will tighten supply in an already volatile market. The impact varies by fuel type:
- Gasoline: Russia’s gasoline exports are relatively small globally, so the ban’s effect will be muted. However, countries reliant on Russian gasoline, such as Libya, Brazil, Egypt, and Turkey, may face supply disruptions. The 2023 ban prompted Europe and China to increase exports to fill gaps, and similar adaptations are likely in 2025. Global gasoline prices may see localized spikes, particularly in regions dependent on Russian supplies, but widespread impact will be limited due to the low volume (less than 1% of global trade).
- Diesel: The diesel ban, though partial, is more significant given Russia’s role as a top exporter. The removal of 160,000 bpd could exacerbate existing supply constraints in Europe, where Russian diesel is critical for industrial sectors like trucking and agriculture. In 2023, a similar ban drove European diesel prices higher, with low-sulfur gasoil futures rising over 5% to $26.14 per barrel above Brent crude. A repeat could push diesel prices up by 3–7% in affected markets, depending on alternative supply availability.
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Countries Facing Higher Prices
Several countries previously reliant on Russian fuel are likely to face higher prices as they seek alternatives:
- Turkey: The top destination for Russian diesel (7 Mt in 2023) and a key gasoline importer (25% year-on-year increase in 2025). Turkey may turn to Middle Eastern or European suppliers, but increased competition could raise prices by 5–10% for diesel and 3–5% for gasoline.
- Brazil: Reliant on Russian diesel (4 Mt in 2023), Brazil may need to source up to 400,000 tons per month from the U.S. or Middle East, potentially increasing diesel costs by 4–8%.
- North and West African Countries: Nations like Libya, reliant on Russian gasoline, may face price hikes of 5–10% as they pivot to European or Asian suppliers.
- Europe: Despite banning direct Russian fuel imports, Europe relies on Russian-origin diesel refined in third countries (e.g., Turkey, India). A tighter global diesel market could push European diesel prices up by 3–6%, particularly for low-sulfur grades.
- Egypt: A significant importer of Russian gasoline (up 25% in 2025), Egypt may see gasoline prices rise by 4–7% due to supply chain adjustments.
Countries in the EAEU (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Armenia) are exempt from the bans, shielding them from immediate price impacts but leaving them vulnerable to Russia’s domestic price fluctuations.
Broader Implications and Market Adaptations
The bans highlight Russia’s struggle to balance domestic stability with its role as a global energy supplier. Ukrainian drone attacks have exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s refining infrastructure, forcing a shift toward crude oil exports (up 105,000 bpd in September 2025) as refining capacity lags. This mismatch could persist, keeping export restrictions in place through Q4 2025.Globally, alternative suppliers are likely to step in:
- Middle East: Gulf states, with major refineries, may increase diesel exports to Europe and Latin America, as seen in 2023 when exports hit an eight-month high of 315,000 tons.
- China and South Korea: Northeast Asian refiners could boost diesel exports to Europe, with China already exporting 190,000 tons in September 2025.
- Europe: Northwest European suppliers may regain market share in West Africa, lost to Russia post-2022 EU sanctions.
However, these shifts come at a cost. Increased competition for non-Russian supplies will drive up freight and refining costs, contributing to price volatility. Additionally, Russia’s reliability as a fuel exporter may erode, prompting buyers to seek long-term contracts with alternative suppliers, potentially reshaping global trade flows.ConclusionRussia’s decision to extend its gasoline export ban and partially ban diesel exports through 2025 will remove an estimated 2.3–2.4 Mt of fuel (182,000–185,000 bpd) from global markets in Q4 2025. While gasoline’s impact is limited due to its small share, the diesel ban could tighten supplies, particularly in Europe, Turkey, Brazil, and North/West Africa, with price increases ranging from 3–10% depending on the region and fuel type. As global markets adapt by sourcing from the Middle East, China, and Europe, the bans underscore Russia’s prioritization of domestic stability over export revenue, a strategy that may strain its global energy influence. Energy News Beat will continue to monitor these developments and their implications for global fuel markets.
The bottom line: The EU funds the war by buying Russian oil and gas, and then has Ukraine bomb Russian refineries without the US approval to have higher gasoline and diesel prices. Make this make sense for me please.
Sources: Reuters, The Economic Times, Bloomberg, Enerdata, OilPrice.com, Interfax
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