In a significant blow to Russia’s wartime economy, state revenues from oil and gas exports are projected to decline sharply in November 2025. According to calculations by Reuters, these revenues could drop by approximately 35% compared to November 2024, falling to around 520 billion roubles ($6.59 billion).
This estimate is based on lower oil prices for tax purposes, which averaged $57.3 per barrel from January to November 2025, down from $70.2 per barrel in the same period the previous year.
Additional factors include a stronger Russian rouble and ongoing Western sanctions that have disrupted export flows and pricing mechanisms.
Verification of these figures aligns with multiple reports echoing Reuters’ analysis. For instance, the price of Russia’s flagship Urals crude has seen a widening discount to Brent, reaching about 23% in November, further eroding revenue potential.
Independent assessments, such as those from OilPrice.com, corroborate the 35% plunge, attributing it to a combination of global market dynamics and sanction-induced inefficiencies.
Discussions on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) also highlight this trend, with users sharing the Reuters report and noting its implications for Russia’s fiscal stability amid the ongoing conflict.
Linking Revenue Pressures to Geopolitical Activity
This revenue shortfall may be contributing to heightened diplomatic activity surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. As Russia’s primary budget pillar—oil and gas account for a substantial portion of federal income—these losses could be pressuring Moscow to engage in negotiations. Recent developments include U.S.-Ukrainian talks in Geneva on November 23, 2025, which resulted in a revised 19-point peace plan.
Ukrainian delegations have continued discussions with U.S. figures like Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, amid drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
Russian officials have reiterated commitments to their terms, but the economic strain from falling revenues might incentivize concessions, especially as combined missile and drone attacks target Ukrainian energy assets in retaliation.
The timing aligns with broader war dynamics, where economic vulnerabilities on both sides could accelerate peace efforts. Russia’s inability to fully offset revenue losses through alternative markets, like shadow fleets bypassing sanctions, underscores the urgency.
Zelensky’s Corruption Scandal and Its Role in War Resolution
Compounding these pressures is a major corruption scandal in Ukraine, which has weakened President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position at a critical juncture. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, resigned following anti-corruption raids on his home and offices.
The scandal involves allegations of embezzlement and graft within Zelensky’s inner circle, prompting media uproar and demands for accountability.
Key figures like Myndych and Tsukerman have reportedly fled to Israel, while ministers have been dismissed and others jailed.
This turmoil could influence the war’s end by eroding Zelensky’s leverage in negotiations. Critics argue it makes him a potential scapegoat for any unfavorable peace deal, potentially facilitating a resolution under U.S. pressure.
Public discourse on X reflects skepticism, with users questioning Zelensky’s awareness of the corruption and its ties to international aid.
While not directly tied to Russia’s revenue woes, the scandal’s timing amid peace talks suggests it weighs on Ukraine’s negotiating stance, possibly hastening an end to hostilities as domestic discontent grows.
Post-War Oil Prices: Sanctions Lifted and Rising Demand
In a post-war scenario with sanctions removed, global oil markets could see increased Russian supply, potentially depressing prices. Analysts project that a resurgence of Russian exports—previously curtailed by embargoes—might lead to a surplus, with Brent crude dipping further if demand doesn’t surge proportionally.
Deutsche Bank forecasts a 2-million-barrel-per-day oversupply in 2026, keeping prices under pressure at around $59 per barrel on average.
However, if global demand rebounds strongly—driven by economic recovery in Europe and Asia—prices could stabilize or rise modestly, offsetting some surplus.
Asia’s markets, in particular, are eyeing peace deals for cheaper oil, with recent price falls attributed to negotiation optimism.
Yet, Russia’s long-term production challenges, including aging fields and sanction-induced underinvestment, might limit export growth, supporting higher prices over time.
The Counterargument: Lifting the EU Price Cap and Capacity Constraints
On the flip side, lifting the EU’s price cap on Russian oil—currently set at levels like $47.60 per barrel—could boost Moscow’s revenues significantly.
Without the cap, Russia could sell at market rates, potentially increasing export earnings by 40% or more, as estimated in scenarios where caps are lowered or removed.
This would allow Russia to capture higher global prices, stabilizing its budget and funding reconstruction.
However, this revenue upside is tempered by Russia’s limited spare capacity, exacerbated by Ukrainian drone strikes. Attacks in 2025 have targeted at least 17 major refineries, disabling up to 10-38% of refining capacity and forcing export halts.
Strikes on pipelines and depots, including in Novorossiysk, have disrupted 2% of exports, with Russia dipping into reserves to mitigate shortages.
This scarcity could drive oil prices higher globally, as reduced Russian output tightens supply amid steady demand.
If capacity isn’t quickly restored, even a lifted price cap might not fully translate to revenue gains, potentially leading to sustained price elevations.
In summary, Russia’s November revenue dip highlights the fragility of its energy-dependent economy amid war and sanctions. While it may spur negotiations, Zelensky’s scandals add complexity. Post-war, oil prices hinge on supply-demand balance, with capacity issues posing risks to both Russian finances and global markets.
This may actually help get global financial oil markets back to basics. Where supply and demand actually matter in pricing.
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