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HomeFed

Fed

Logan
Finance

Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Fed’s Logan on How Assets Might Shift from Longer-Term Securities to Short-Term T-Bills, Repos, and Loans after QT Ends. MBS Entirely Off the List

February 25, 2025 Mariel Alumit

This would be like a reverse Operation Twist. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan – a leading voice on the nuts and bolts of the Fed’s balance sheet due to her prior job […]

Employment
Finance

Huge Upward Adjustment to Employment and Labor Force as Wave of Immigrants is Finally Included, Unemployment Drops, Wage Growth Accelerates: The Annual Revisions Are Here

February 7, 2025 Clark Savage

The Fed, after complaining about missing immigrants in labor market data, now has further support for its pivot to wait-and-see. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. We’ve been discussing this issue – and its impact on employment data […]

Price
Finance

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP

February 6, 2025 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet declined by $42 billion in January, to $6.81 trillion, the lowest since May 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. During May 2020, […]

Job
Finance

Underlying Job Market Dynamics Retighten as Fed Moves any Rate Cuts into Distance amid Accelerating Inflation

February 4, 2025 Mariel Alumit

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The reason we’re looking at the underlying dynamics of the labor market is to gauge the pressure within the Fed to cut interest rates to prevent the labor market from weakening. And […]

Trump
Finance

Trump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent

February 3, 2025 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Trump understands – since he ran on that platform and won in part based on it – that Americans hate, hate, hate inflation, that they’re tired of price increases and tired of […]

Inflation
Finance

Inflation Festers in Core Services, No Progress in 12 Months. PCE Price Index Accelerates for 3rd Month: Justifies Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See

January 31, 2025 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The sharply falling prices since mid-2022 of energy such as gasoline, and durable goods, such as motor vehicles, had contributed a lot to the cooling of inflation measures. But prices cannot fall […]

Fed
Finance

Fed Pivots to Wait-and-See, Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Restarts Inflation Worries. QT Continues.

January 29, 2025 Stu Turley

And labor market conditions are no longer easing. The reasons for further rate cuts — dropping inflation, weakening labor market — vanished. Pretty hawkish. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The FOMC voted unanimously today to keep the […]

Bankruptcy

Musk issues bankruptcy warning

December 27, 2024 Andy Del Prado

The US government will “go de facto bankrupt” unless it reins in its rising debt, Elon Musk has warned. The billionaire is set to co-lead a new department tasked with curbing spending under President-elect Donald […]

US National Debt
Finance

Who Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities?

December 24, 2024 Clark Savage

A hot question for an iffy situation. So here are the holders as of Q3. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET: The US national debt keeps ballooning at an amazing rate and has now reached $36.16 trillion. These […]

Labor
Finance

Labor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See?

December 6, 2024 Andy Del Prado

Payrolls & wages jump, prior 2 months revised higher, solid bounce-back from Hurricanes and Boeing strike. 3-month average payrolls +173,000! By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Payrolls jumped by 227,000 in November from October, and the prior two […]

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