Fed Archives

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in Sept., -$1.92 Trillion from Peak, to $7.05 Trillion, Back to May 2020. To Drop Below $7 Trillion in 1-2 Months

October 3, 2024 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $66 billion in September, to $7.05 trillion, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. The balance sheet first reached this level on […]

Fed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Accelerates to 2.7%, Highest since April, on Higher Core Services Inflation (+3.8%). Durable Goods -2.2%, Energy -10%

September 27, 2024 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The “Core” PCE price index, the Fed’s primary yardstick for its 2% inflation target, rose by 2.7% from a year ago in August, the second slight acceleration in a row, and the biggest […]

Days after Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”

September 23, 2024 Stu Turley

“The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target.” By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Underlying inflationary dynamics are picking up steam, after having cooled a lot. Today, S&P’s preliminary […]

Fed Cuts by 50 Basis Points, to 5.0% Top of Range, Sees Additional 50 Basis Points in 2024, QT Continues

September 18, 2024 Stu Turley

But the longer-run rate for its target rose to 2.9%, continuing the series of increases, slowly but steadily rising from the ashes of the ZIRP era. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. FOMC members voted today to cut […]

The Federal Reserve Needs to Stop Looking Backward

September 17, 2024 Mariel Alumit

U.S. monetary policy has become dangerously addicted to mistaken predictions. With inflation at its lowest level since 2021 and unemployment on the rise, market participants and observers are looking nervously at the Federal Reserve. Is […]

The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions

September 8, 2024 Stu Turley

Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job […]

The Fed Has Room to Cut, Rates Are High Relative to Inflation, and Job Growth Could Use some Juicing Up

September 6, 2024 Stu Turley

Job growth bounces back some, hourly earnings jump, unemployment dips, but job growth is too slow to absorb the massive influx of immigrants. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Payrolls at employers rose by 142,000 jobs in August, […]

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone

September 5, 2024 Stu Turley

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $66 billion in August, to $7.11 trillion, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. The balance sheet first reached this level on […]

Fed Favored Annual Core PCE Price Index Slightly Up, at 2.6%: Core Services Inflation 3.7%, Durable Goods Deflation -2.5%

August 30, 2024 Stu Turley

Month-to-month, core services inflation jumped while durable goods deflation deepened, and so core PCE price index hits Fed’s target. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The “Core” PCE price index, the Fed’s primary yardstick for its 2% inflation target, […]

Home Buyers’ Strike Expands even as Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest since May 2023. Surging Refis to Speed Up the Fed’s QT

August 21, 2024 Mariel Alumit

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Mortgage rates dropped to 6.50%, the lowest since May 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. But instead of re-igniting demand for homes from buyers who need mortgages, these dropping rates […]