The Oil and Gas Global Markets Update with David Blackmon and Stu Turley

This was a wild discussion of the current global oil and gas markets with David Blackmon and Stu Turley. We covered stories from Energy News Beat and David’s Substack. And a shout-out to Urs, one of our readers. We are looking forward to paying for dinner in Cuba.

If you only have time for one podcast, this may be it, as we cover the markets and critical issues on how long this conflict may last.

1. Oil and natural gas prices:
   • David and I discussed the recent spike in oil and diesel prices, with oil prices increasing by around 14-15% over two days. The hosts analyze the potential reasons and implications of these price increases.
2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East:
   • The discussion focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG trade, and the potential disruptions to shipping in the region due to tensions and conflicts.
   • The transcript covers the involvement of various countries, such as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, in the regional dynamics and their potential impact on energy markets.
3. Energy security and dependence:
   • We discuss the concept of “energy security starts at home, but energy dominance starts at your exports,” highlighting the energy dependence of the European Union on Russian oil and gas.
   • We also touch on the energy crisis in California and the challenges faced due to the shutdown of refineries and pipelines. And I am interviewing Ronald Stein on Monday to cover the latest crisis in California.
4. U.S. foreign policy and geopolitics:
   • The transcript delves into the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions, particularly in relation to Iran and Venezuela, and their potential impact on global energy markets and China’s influence.
   • The hosts also discuss the shifting geopolitical alliances and the potential for Russia to improve its relationship with the United States.
5. U.S. domestic politics and energy policy:
   • The discussion touches on the upcoming elections in the U.S., particularly the Republican primary race in Texas, and the potential implications for energy policy and regulation.
   • The hosts also criticize the current Republican leadership in the Senate for not taking decisive action on energy-related legislation.
6. Electricity pricing and grid resilience:
   • The transcript delves into the issues surrounding the pricing of electricity, particularly the need to redefine the levelized cost of electricity for renewable energy sources to include the cost of storage and grid resilience.

Starmer to Trump: “You Have No Plan.” Trump Replies: “Have You Been Following Venezuela’s Story?”

We turned chaos into control—watch us do the same with Iran.”This back-and-forth highlights the Trump administration’s evolving foreign policy playbook, drawing parallels between recent U.S. interventions in Venezuela and potential applications to Iran. In Venezuela, the U.S. eased oil sanctions in late 2025 and early 2026, allowing for controlled exports that boosted production while channeling revenues through U.S.-monitored accounts. This approach not only stabilized Venezuela’s oil sector but also curtailed the influence of adversarial players like Russia and China in the region’s energy markets. Venezuela’s oil output climbed back toward pre-sanction levels, with exports redirecting from shadowy routes to transparent channels, generating billions in revenue under oversight.

Secretary Bessent foreshadowed this in an interview he did in Davos, when he made the comment that they had taken down the financial system for Iran. By putting in place a solid financial system that will not fund bad players, the world will see peace.

At What Price Will the EU Open Russian Gas and Oil Pipelines?

“Energy Security Starts at home, and Energy Dominance comes through your exports, But your energy dependence is defined by who you import from”. – Stu Turley.

The European Union is once again grappling with an escalating energy crisis in early 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions that have disrupted key supply routes. With Ukraine halting Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline to countries like Hungary and Slovakia, and Qatar’s sudden shutdown of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports following Iranian drone strikes, energy prices are soaring. European natural gas futures have surged by as much as 85% in recent days, reaching multi-year highs around €59 per megawatt-hour (MWh).

This volatility raises a critical question: at what price point might the EU reconsider its commitment to phasing out Russian energy imports by 2027, potentially reopening pipelines like the remaining intact line of Nord Stream 2? As storage levels dwindle to critically low levels—around 30% across Europe, with Germany at 20.5% and France at 21%—the bloc faces a stark choice between energy security, economic stability, and geopolitical principles.

The Ukraine Oil Transit Halt: A Political and Energy Standoff

The crisis intensified on January 27, 2026, when oil flows through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline— a Soviet-era artery supplying Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia—were suspended following what Ukraine described as a Russian drone strike on pumping infrastructure in western Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported severe fire damage, halting shipments and sparking a bitter dispute within the EU.

Hungarian and Slovak officials, however, accuse Kyiv of deliberately prolonging the outage for political leverage, labeling it “energy blackmail.”

In retaliation, Slovakia halted emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, while Hungary blocked a €90 billion EU loan to Kyiv and threatened to veto new sanctions on Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been blunt, stating there is “no intention whatsoever” to restart transit, emphasizing that Hungary and Slovakia should be grateful rather than accusatory.

The European Commission has urged Ukraine to allow inspections and resume flows, with President Ursula von der Leyen discussing the issue directly with Zelenskyy.

This disruption affects only a fraction of Europe’s oil supply but exacerbates tensions, as Hungary and Slovakia remain the EU’s last major importers of Russian crude via pipeline.

The Price for Oil May Go Up If the Bypass Pipelines Are Hit, and If Ship Insurance Is Not Approved

But the real siege isn’t coming from missiles alone; it’s an “invisible” one driven by insurance markets and the vulnerability of bypass pipelines designed to skirt the strait.

The Insurance Squeeze: A Silent Blockade

Seven of the twelve International Group of P&I Clubs—covering 90% of global commercial tonnage—issued 72-hour cancellation notices starting March 1-2, 2026.

This has led to an 80% drop in transits through the strait, from 138 vessels per day to just 28.

John Konrad, CEO of maritime news site gCaptain, highlighted the chaos in a March 2 post on X: “Major marine insurers just cancelled war risk coverage for the Strait of Hormuz. 150+ ships stranded. Rates tripled. One seafarer dead. And this is only day 3 of the Iran conflict.”

How Long Can China Survive After Losing Venezuela and Iraq’s Discounted Oil Supplies?

In an increasingly volatile global energy landscape, China—the world’s largest oil importer—relies heavily on discounted crude from sanctioned or geopolitically unstable suppliers to fuel its economy. Venezuela and Iraq together provide a significant portion of these imports, often at below-market prices due to sanctions on Venezuelan oil and competitive pricing from Iraqi heavy crudes. But what if these supplies were cut off?

This article explores China’s oil storage levels, volumes in transit, and whether Russia could step in to fill the gap, amid questions about Moscow’s spare production and shipping capacity.

China’s Reliance on Venezuelan and Iraqi Oil

California will be a national security risk for the entire country!

With no crude oil pipelines over the Sierra Mountains, California is an energy island separated from the crude oil supply and the infrastructure of oil refineries from the other 49 States. Thus, all in-state California transportation fuel demands for ships, airports, cars, and trucks have staggering numbers FROM in-state refineries:

Beyond chemistry, hydrocarbons underpin physical mobility.

• Diesel powers heavy logistics: trucks, mining equipment, construction machinery, rail, and agricultural systems.
• Aviation depends almost entirely on jet fuel.
• Merchant ships for global trade rely on bunker fuel.
• Military mobility, tanks, aircraft, naval fleets, and supply chains remain inseparable from liquid hydrocarbons due to their unmatched energy density, storability, and reliability.

Collectively, the closure of the Phillips refinery in Southern California and the Valero refinery in Northern California provided about 17% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity to provide transportation fuels demanded in California. Thus, transportation fuel shortages are imminent in California, and it will import those fuels from new refineries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

Qatar Halts LNG Production, and the European and Asia Markets Respond

Details of the Production Halt

The affected facilities process around 82 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG, equivalent to about 15-20% of global output.

Check out David’s Substack at

David Blackmon’s Energy Additions

There is no ‘Energy Transition’ taking place. Instead, what is taking place is the most massive addition of energy in all its forms in the history of mankind. Learn all about this energy addition and the public policies that drive it here.

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