Ukraine’s intensified bombing campaign against Russian refineries over the last month is creating a severe fuel crisis in Russia while simultaneously having negative repercussions for the environment. The crippled refining capacity is forcing Russia to import gasoline from distant Asian markets, amplifying CO2 emissions through longer transportation routes. This disruption also reverberates through global fuel markets, impacting traditional Russian gasoline and diesel buyers.
Surge in Attacks and Russian Refinery Disruption
Since August 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted at least 16 to 21 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries, with successful attacks surpassing those in all of 2024 by nearly 50%. These operations have taken up to 40% of Russia’s refining capacity offline, leading to widespread fuel shortages, price spikes, and rationing—even in annexed Crimea. Some refineries, such as the Salavat and Afipsky plants, have been attacked multiple times, resulting in significant fires and extended operational shutdowns.
Gasoline Imports and CO2 Emissions
Unable to meet domestic demand, Russia is gearing up to import gasoline from China, South Korea, Singapore, and Belarus. Regulatory changes are underway to slash import tariffs and incentivize large-scale shipments to central Russia. The estimated import volume is around 150,000 tons per month—just a fraction of the shortfall, estimated at 400,000 tons monthly.
While this brings some relief to Russian motorists, environmental damage is compounded:
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Each 1,000 kilometers of gasoline transport by ship or rail generates considerable additional CO2 emissions compared to local supply chains. For perspective, burning one liter of gasoline creates 2.3 kg of CO2.
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With around 150,000 tons of imported gasoline per month (1 ton ≈ 1,333 liters), that’s nearly 200 million liters transported—representing up to 460,000 metric tons of CO2 from combustion alone, not to mention the emissions from shipping itself.
Long-haul shipments from Asia to Russia’s heartland significantly increase the overall emissions footprint, worsening the environmental toll of the Ukraine conflict and prolonging the negative impact well beyond Russia’s borders.
Impact on Russian Fuel Export Markets
Prior to the ban, Russia exported about 10-12% of its gasoline output, and was a major exporter of diesel fuel. However, the government has imposed a strict gasoline export ban and new restrictions on diesel shipments to stabilize domestic supplies, with these bans now extended until at least the end of 2025.
Key global buyers affected by these reductions include:
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European countries (those who have not severed ties due to sanctions).
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Turkey, China, India, and other Asian nations had relied on discounted Russian products.
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Taiwan imported $1.3 billion worth of naphtha from Russia in the first half of 2025, topping the list of global buyers for certain petroleum products.
With Russian gasoline and diesel exports sharply curtailed—falling about 30% after these attacks—traditional buyers face the risk of supply shortages, price hikes, and the need to turn to alternative suppliers, possibly further straining global energy markets.
California is not directly impacted by gasoline and diesel yet
California does not directly import gasoline or diesel from Russia; however, Russian oil still reaches the California fuel supply indirectly. California has increased gasoline imports from India, which refines large amounts of Russian crude oil and then exports the finished gasoline and blending components to California. Once this fuel enters the supply chain, it is considered an Indian export—not Russian—despite originating from Russian crude. In August 2025, California imported 39,000 barrels per day of gasoline and blending components from India, a record level, illustrating how Russian oil continues to influence the California market even though official direct imports have stopped since 2022.
So as the refineries close in California, it will be more important as Governor Newsom’s policies have left Californians dependent on the volatile nature of the global markets.
Conclusion
Ukraine’s bombing of Russian refineries is proving to be an effective wartime tactic with sweeping knock-on effects. While it disrupts Russia’s war machinery and domestic fuel stability, it also increases environmental harm due to higher CO2 emissions from long-haul fuel imports and complicates global fuel markets by sidelining one of the world’s largest exporters. The environmental and economic consequences of these attacks underline the far-reaching impact of targeting critical energy infrastructure in modern warfare.
As California becomes more dependent on the global gasoline and diesel markets, so will its emissions increase, which it has tried to curtail through misguided energy policy decisions.
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