In a bold escalation of its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed responsibility for a drone strike on the Port of Primorsk, Russia’s premier oil-loading terminal on the Baltic Sea. This marks the first direct hit on the facility, which handles a significant portion of Moscow’s crude oil exports to global markets. The overnight attack, part of a massive barrage involving over 221 drones, has suspended operations at the port, ignited fires, and raised immediate concerns about supply disruptions in an already volatile oil market.
The Attack: A Deep Strike into Russian Territory
The assault unfolded in the early hours of September 12, targeting the Leningrad Oblast region, approximately 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. According to the SBU, more than 30 drones zeroed in on Primorsk and nearby infrastructure, including three oil pumping stations along key pipelines. Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported intercepting and destroying 221 Ukrainian drones across its territory, including nine over Moscow, but acknowledged strikes in the northwest. Primorsk, operational since 2001, is a cornerstone of Russia’s Baltic export network. Operated by Transneft and Rosneft, the port features two main berths for crude oil tankers and boasts an annual capacity of around 75 million metric tons of crude, equivalent to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
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It also handles 20 million tons of diesel and other products annually. The terminal’s 18 storage tanks, each holding 50,000 tons, make it a vital artery for Urals crude shipments to Europe, Asia, and beyond.This strike follows a pattern of intensified Ukrainian drone operations against Russian energy assets, which have disrupted refineries and pipelines throughout 2025. However, Primorsk’s location near the Finnish border and its role in evading Western sanctions made it a high-value, previously untouched target. Assessing the Damage:
Fires and Operational Halt
Initial reports paint a picture of targeted but impactful destruction. A fire broke out on an oil tanker moored at the port, with flames also engulfing a critical pumping station. Regional Governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed the incidents, noting that emergency services were deployed to contain the blazes. Ukrainian sources described the hits as precise, aiming to cripple export capabilities without causing widespread environmental catastrophe. The extent of structural damage remains unclear in these early hours, but the immediate consequence is clear: loading operations at Primorsk have been fully suspended. No casualties were reported, and Russian authorities have not detailed the full scope of repairs needed. However, the port’s role in handling up to 40% of Russia’s Baltic crude exports suggests the disruption could be severe.
Drawing from similar incidents earlier this year, such as drone strikes on the Ust-Luga fuel port, repairs to damaged pumping infrastructure could take weeks to months. In the Ust-Luga case, one severely affected unit was estimated to require up to six months for full restoration, while lighter damage allowed partial operations within days. For Primorsk, analysts speculate that firefighting and initial assessments might sideline the facility for at least 1-2 weeks, with full recovery potentially extending into October or longer if pipeline feeders are compromised.
Oil Shipments Disrupted: Quantifying the Loss
Primorsk’s suspension directly threatens Russia’s export quotas. Moscow had already revised its September crude export plan from western ports—including Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk—to 2.1 million bpd, an 11% increase from the initial 1.9 million bpd forecast. Primorsk alone contributes around 600,000-700,000 bpd under normal conditions, based on its capacity and recent loading data. With operations halted, an estimated 500,000-700,000 bpd of crude could go unshipped daily, depending on the duration of the outage. At current Urals crude prices hovering around $60 per barrel, this translates to potential daily revenue losses of $30-42 million for Russia—figures echoed by SBU estimates of up to $41 million per day in budget shortfalls, over a week-long shutdown, that could exceed $280 million, straining Russia’s war chest amid ongoing sanctions.
Russia may reroute some cargoes to Ust-Luga or Novorossiysk, but capacity constraints and heightened security risks could limit this. The attack also hit supporting infrastructure, potentially bottlenecking the entire Baltic export corridor.
Ripple Effects on Oil Markets and Investors
The strike sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with Brent crude futures jumping nearly 2% in early trading on September 12, settling above $75 per barrel. Traders cited escalating risks to Russian supply as a key driver, with UBS analysts noting that “attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have room to drag down crude and refined product exports.” WTI crude followed suit, rising 1.8%. For investors, this event underscores the fragility of Russian oil flows, which account for about 7-8% of global seaborne crude trade despite sanctions. Short-term, expect heightened volatility: OPEC+ monitors will watch closely, as Russia might accelerate production elsewhere to compensate, but logistical hurdles could tighten supply. Hedge funds and speculators may pile into long positions on oil, betting on sustained disruptions.
Long-term, the strike bolsters the case for diversified supply chains. European buyers, already weaning off Russian crude, could see cheaper alternatives from the Middle East or U.S. shale, but Asian markets reliant on discounted Urals face upward price pressure. Energy stocks in non-Russian producers—like ExxonMobil or Saudi Aramco—could benefit, while Russian-linked assets (via shadows fleets) face discounts.
Investors in renewables might view this as an acceleration toward energy security, potentially lifting green tech valuations. However, if repairs drag on, broader geopolitical tensions could push oil toward $80-90 per barrel by year-end, inflating inflation fears and complicating central bank policies. The $80 range is only possible if demand stays high, and the EU and the UK seem to be on a lower economic demand cliff with their social unrest and deindustrialization path going forward. If China and India can keep their demand up, we will still be in the $70 to $75 range.
Looking Ahead: Escalation or Deterrence?
As flames subside at Primorsk, the world watches for Russia’s response. This first strike on the terminal signals Ukraine’s growing reach and resolve, potentially deterring future export complacency. For energy markets, it’s a reminder that supply shocks remain a wildcard in 2025’s volatile landscape. Energy News Beat will continue monitoring developments as assessments evolve.
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