The US reversed its forecast for a crude glut next year and is now calling for a small oil-market deficit.
Global oil consumption should exceed output by 100,000 barrels a day in 2025, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration out Tuesday. That compares with a 300,000 barrel-a-day surplus forecast last month.
The downward revision comes after OPEC and its allies deferred supply increases for three months, which the EIA expects will tighten the market.
The US outlook, however, runs counter to that of the International Energy Agency, which last month predicted a 1 million barrel-a-day surplus in 2025 despite the OPEC+ decision. The IEA is due to update its forecast later this week.
Investors are closely watching balances for next year, as weak demand and rising production outside of OPEC keep oil futures rangebound. Adding to bearish sentiment, Saudi Arabia cut oil prices for buyers in Asia over the weekend, underscoring the market’s weakening outlook.
Josh Young on X Posted
I just got a great question via email.
“If US inventories are declining, couldn’t the oil just be going to floating storage or abroad?”
It could, but here’s what the EIA shows for global petroleum inventories (including oil on water, and oil products like diesel and gasoline): pic.twitter.com/BrpDJTWwqn
— Josh Young (@Josh_Young_1) December 10, 2024
and another great X person is Anas Alhajji
– EU’s gas imports,
– #Brazil crude exports
– Europe’s pricy power
– #China’s oil imports
– Europe’s battery fail
– #Oil service jobs
– Europe’s wind limit
– Coal still king
– Air travel & jet fuel demand
– #Lithium supply
and more.Daily Energy Report https://t.co/5CXz9UrbIX pic.twitter.com/gEkZUmEtLb
— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) December 10, 2024
Where do you think oil is going? – This is going to influence the need for low power for manufacturing. – Buckle up and we are going to need Natural Gas Plants
