The Monroe Doctrine, first articulated in 1823, has long served as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, asserting American influence over the Western Hemisphere and warning against external interference. Today, Venezuela stands at the heart of this doctrine’s modern application, embodying a high-stakes battle over resources, sovereignty, and global power dynamics. With the United States’ recent seizure of a Venezuelan tanker carrying sanctioned oil off its coast, tensions have escalated, signaling what could be the beginning of a broader realignment in international trade.
President Trump has warned of further actions, including potential naval blockades and increased pressure on the Maduro regime, while deploying warships and raising bounties.
Yet, amid these developments, the American public remains wary of entanglement in another conflict, preferring diplomatic and economic levers over military intervention. This seizure, however, may mark a pivotal shift, not toward outright war, but toward reshaping energy and mineral trade flows that involve major powers like Russia, India, Japan, and the U.S.Drawing from insights in Jonathan Maxwell’s analysis, “Venezuela, the United States, and the Edge of Conflict,” Venezuela represents a geopolitical paradox: a nation blessed with unparalleled natural wealth yet crippled by instability.
Its vast reserves of oil, natural gas, rare earth elements, and critical minerals could transform the lives of its citizens through job creation, expanded trade, and the ousting of corrupt leadership. At the same time, these resources are fueling a contest among global trading blocs, as outlined in discussions on Energy News Beat, where energy drives geopolitical realignments.
Here’s a closer look at what’s at stake and how a strategic pivot could benefit not just Venezuela, but the world.
Venezuela’s Untapped Natural Wealth: A Foundation for Prosperity
Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves, exceeding 300 billion barrels, primarily in the heavy crude-rich Orinoco Belt.
This resource alone accounts for about 90% of the country’s export revenues when properly managed, supporting a trade surplus and economic stability.
Complementing this are over 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, largely undeveloped, with potential for offshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Beyond hydrocarbons, the Arco Minero del Orinoco region holds significant deposits of critical minerals and rare earth elements, including gold (top 15 globally with 161 million ounces), coltan (niobium and tantalum), bauxite (top 10 with 320 million metric tons), copper, iron ore, and rare earths essential for batteries, semiconductors, defense technologies, and renewable energy infrastructure.
These resources, if harnessed responsibly, could generate immense economic benefits. Oil and gas production could ramp up to 3-4 million barrels per day from the current 750,000, creating thousands of jobs in upstream exploration, midstream refining, and downstream petrochemicals.
Mineral extraction could support industries like electronics manufacturing and green tech, fostering skilled employment and vocational training programs. Trade opportunities abound: exporting refined products, LNG, and minerals could diversify the economy, reducing reliance on raw exports and building a trade surplus that funds infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
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Resource
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Reserves/Estimates
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Potential Economic Benefits
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|---|---|---|
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Oil
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300+ billion barrels
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Export revenues (90% of current exports), jobs in refining and export logistics, and stabilizing global prices with added supply.
|
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Natural Gas
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200+ trillion cubic feet
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LNG exports for energy security, petrochemical industry growth, and thousands of midstream jobs.
|
|
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals (e.g., coltan, bauxite, gold)
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Top global rankings in multiple categories
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Supply chain for batteries/semiconductors, mining/processing jobs, trade in high-value tech materials.
|
Overcoming Corruption: A Path to Citizen EmpowermentUnder Nicolás Maduro’s leadership, Venezuela’s resources have been mismanaged through corruption, cronyism, and alliances with adversarial powers like Russia, Iran, and China, leading to economic collapse and humanitarian crises.
Illegal mining in regions controlled by guerrilla groups has caused environmental devastation, human rights abuses, and lost revenues, with rare earths and minerals extracted without benefiting the populace.
Eliminating this corrupt regime—through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, or supported transitions—could redirect resource wealth toward the people.A post-Maduro framework, potentially involving U.S.-friendly operators like Chevron, could modernize infrastructure and enforce transparent governance.
This would create jobs by attracting foreign investment in sustainable extraction, while trade deals ensure fair revenue distribution. For instance, oil royalties could fund social programs, and mineral processing hubs could employ locals, breaking the cycle of poverty and emigration. The goal: transform Venezuela from a failed state into a prosperous partner, where citizens gain from equitable resource use rather than elite enrichment.
Global Trade Realignment: Venezuela’s Resources in the Mix
The tanker seizure isn’t just about sanctions; it’s a harbinger of shifting trade alignments, as Americans seek economic gains without war.
As Maxwell notes, U.S. intervention could secure heavy crude for Gulf Coast refineries, diversify away from Middle Eastern and Russian oil, and access critical minerals to hedge against Chinese dominance.
This reduces vulnerabilities in supply chains for data centers, AI, and defense, while stabilizing global prices by adding Venezuelan output.On Energy News Beat, George McMillan’s series critiques U.S. strategies like those from Keith Kellogg, highlighting how energy drives trading blocs—alliances blending economics, military, and geopolitics.
Historically, U.S.-led efforts (via NATO/EU) aimed to block Russian gas pipelines to prevent a Eurasian bloc uniting Russia, China, India, Japan, and others through overland energy routes.
Such a bloc could rival Western systems, funding Russia’s modernization and integrating Japan’s energy needs with India’s growth. Venezuela’s resources fit squarely here. Under U.S. influence, its oil and gas could bolster an American-led hemispheric bloc, supplying the U.S. and allies like Japan (reducing reliance on distant sources) while countering Russian exports to India.
Critical minerals could feed U.S.-Japan tech partnerships, weakening China’s grip and supporting India’s manufacturing boom. Russia, facing isolation, might pivot, but Venezuela’s reintegration could tip balances—e.g., Chevron’s role in Venezuelan fields aligns with Trump-era talks, positioning resources for “front-line” energy geopolitics.
If realigned, these blocs could emerge as: U.S.-Led Hemisphere Bloc: Venezuela’s oil/minerals secure North American energy, with trade to Japan for tech collaboration.
Eurasian Counter-Bloc: Russia-India-China, potentially pulling in Japan if U.S. pressure falters, using Venezuelan disruptions to highlight Western vulnerabilities.
Hybrid Opportunities: Post-conflict, shared access to Venezuelan LNG could ease tensions, fostering multipolar trade where India benefits from diversified imports and Russia from reduced sanctions.
The stakes are clear: Control Venezuela’s bounty, and the U.S. strengthens its doctrine, averts war through economic dominance, and reshapes trade. Fail, and rivals like Russia and China solidify their blocs, eroding American influence.
Make no mistake, or misunderstanding. I am not one to support war or regime change, but for decades, the United States has participated in regime changes that have had ulterior motives and questionable methods. If this is done through peace and sanctions, for the good of the Venezuelan people, without the implementation of a leader like Zelinsky, who appears to be corrupt, this could be the beginning of a new era in trading blocs around the world. Those that follow energy policies that protect the environment, use natural resources responsibly, create jobs for Venezuelans, and foster trade with the United States, rather than becoming a subservient vassal state like the Crown has done through the centuries.
As Americans say we support free elections in other countries, this raises a great question: why won’t Republicans and Democrats require the laws to be obeyed in the United States by requiring IDs, paper ballots, same-day voting, and only United States citizens to be allowed to vote? Until we have our own house in order, we seem to be hypocritical, forcing a regime change on a corrupt government that canceled an election.
As global energy transitions accelerate, Venezuela’s role could define the next era of prosperity—or conflict. I, for one, will be praying for a peaceful transfer of power to a duly elected leader for Venezuela that will make all decisions on Venezuela’s trade with one thing in mind. Do what is best for Venezuelans and the environment.
Sources: ebsco.com, energynewsbeat.co, jonathanmaxwell.substack.com, chosun.com, newsnationnow.com
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