ENB Pub Note: Update from LNGPrime.com below, and I added the summary from the Venture Global Q1 2025 report as we review investment discussions and opportunities.
Financial Performance
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Revenue: Venture Global reported revenue of $2.9 billion, a 105% increase (+$1.48 billion) from Q1 2024. This surge was driven by a 93% increase in LNG export volumes, reflecting strong operational performance at both Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities.
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Income from Operations: Operating income reached $1.1 billion, up 75% from Q1 2024, indicating improved efficiency despite higher operating costs.
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Net Income: Net income was $0.4 billion, a solid result but tempered by increased expenses and market challenges.
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Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA: EBITDA was $1.3 billion, slightly below some analyst expectations (e.g., Goldman Sachs estimated $1.415 billion). The company revised its full-year 2025 EBITDA guidance downward to $6.4–6.8 billion from $6.8–7.4 billion, citing compressed spreads between domestic and international gas prices.
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Liquefaction Fees: The weighted average fixed liquefaction fee was $8.80/MMBtu at Calcasieu Pass and $7.26/MMBtu at Plaquemines. For unsold cargos in 2025, the company assumes fees of $6.00–$7.00/MMBtu, with a $1.00/MMBtu change impacting EBITDA by $460–480 million.
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Calcasieu Pass: Achieved Commercial Operation Date (COD) on April 15, 2025, transitioning from commissioning to full commercial operations. The facility exported 34 cargos in Q1, meeting the high end of guidance, and is expected to ship 145–150 cargos for the full year. Production capacity is now 12 mtpa, up from an initial 10 mtpa.
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Plaquemines: Demonstrated exceptional performance, with liquefaction trains operating at ~140% of nameplate capacity. The facility exported 29 cargos in Q1 and is projected to ship 222–239 cargos in 2025. Phase 1 is expected to be fully operational by May 2025, with the entire facility online by year-end. Production capacity is revised to 26.5 mtpa from 20 mtpa.
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CP2 Project: Secured Non-FTA Export Authorization from the DOE on March 19, 2025, and a $3 billion bank loan. FERC approval is expected imminently, with full mobilization to follow. The project’s capacity is revised to 28 mtpa from 20 mtpa, positioning Venture Global to potentially become the largest U.S. LNG producer if approved.
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Tariff Impacts: Potential tariffs pose a $210–350 million exposure for CP2 Phase I, though pre-procured materials may mitigate this.
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Market Valuation: Despite strong operational results, Venture Global’s stock traded near a 52-week low of $8.62, down 58% over the past year, reflecting market skepticism after a disappointing Q4 2024 and reduced 2025 guidance.
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Regulatory and Legal Risks: Ongoing arbitration cases from customers (e.g., Shell, BP, Repsol) over Calcasieu Pass commissioning cargos and regulatory hurdles for CP2 could impact growth.
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Cost Increases: The Plaquemines project’s cost estimate rose by ~$2 billion to $23.3–23.8 billion, with $19.8 billion spent by end-2024.
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Market Strategy: Venture Global has shifted toward securing more 20-year contracts for its ~15 mtpa of extra LNG output, balancing spot market sales with long-term stability.
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Global Demand: The company noted a shift in cargo destinations toward Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, aligning with rising global LNG demand.
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Overproduction: Both facilities consistently exceed nameplate capacity (140% at Plaquemines), providing a competitive edge in a capital-intensive industry.
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Stock Performance: As of May 23, 2025, the stock price was $11.39, with a market cap of $27.6 billion. The trailing 12-month EPS was $0.52, and revenue was $6.45 billion.
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Analyst Views: Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a $20.00 target, while Citi downgraded its target to $11.00, and Mizuho adjusted to $18.00, citing cash flow concerns and market overreaction.
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Operational Strength vs. Market Perception: Venture Global’s operational success (e.g., 105% revenue growth, overproduction) contrasts with its stock’s poor performance, suggesting investor concerns over valuation, tariffs, and litigation may be overstated.
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Guidance Revision: The EBITDA downgrade reflects cautious assumptions about liquefaction fees and market volatility, but the company’s ability to exceed production targets could offset this.
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Growth Potential: The CP2 project and Plaquemines expansion position Venture Global to capitalize on rising global LNG demand, especially under a pro-energy U.S. administration. However, regulatory delays or tariff escalations could pose risks.
FERC said on May 30 it had granted Venture Global CP2 LNG’s July 2024 request.
“In considering this notice to proceed, we have reviewed CP2 LNG’s implementation plans, and the best management practices described in your application and subsequent filings,” FERC said.
FERC said this letter authorizes only the following activities.
These include mobilization, utility connections and installation of water wells, dewatering and drainage, establishment of temporary access controls, construction of temporary facilities, including access roads and parking areas, installation of erosion control measures, site preparation, and use of existing marine offloading facilities.
In a separate letter, FERC also authorized CP2 LNG to start construction activities for the test pile program for the LNG storage tanks.
FERC recently reaffirmed its previous approval of Venture Global’s CP2 LNG project and the project’s pipeline.
The CP2 LNG plant will be located next to Venture Global’s existing Calcasieu Pass liquefaction plant in Louisiana, which started commercial operations in April.
CP2 is expected to have peak production capacity of up to 28 mtpa.
Venture Global estimates that the total project costs for the CP2 project, including both phases, will range from about $27 billion to $28 billion.
In March, Venture Global announced it had launched the formal FID process for CP2 LNG.
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