Daily Standup Weekly Top Stories
Saudi to cut oil output in July, OPEC extends deal into 2024
Saudis offers new voluntary cuts of 1 mln bpd for July Russian, Nigerian, Angolan targets brought in line with output UAE allowed to raise production (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia will make deep production cuts in […]
Is Biden’s controversial Bitcoin mining tax dead or set to rise from the ashes?
Bitcoin (BTC) miners in the United States can breathe a sigh of relief after a proposed tax on crypto mining did not make it into a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling that appears set to pass. The Digital Assets […]
New Jersey clean energy bill on hold
CLEAN ENERGY BILL ON HOLD — POLITICO’s Ry Rivard: A bill to create a nation-leading clean energy plan for New Jersey won’t be taken up by state lawmakers until after the election. The bill, NJ S2978 (22R), would […]
Why You Should Doubt The U.S. Department Of Energy’s Sudden Projection Of Falling Natural Gas Demand
To me, there’s still decent upside to oil demand. Probably not so much here in the U.S., but globally, I’d argue that “more oil” is a pretty safe bet. Airplanes, heavy trucking, and petrochemicals will […]
Game Day: It’s a new world for golf fans after LIV and PGA Tour merger – How did energy make this happen?
ENB Publishers Note: While watching all of the fallout from this wild merger with LIV and the PGA, it occurred to me that we have to wonder how this came about. In stark contrast to […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:46 – Saudi to cut oil output in July, OPEC extends deal into 2024
06:03 – Biden’s controversial Bitcoin mining tax is dead or is it set to rise from the ashes like a Phenix?
08:48 – New Jersey Clean energy Bill on hold Clean Energy Bill on Hold
12:16 – Why should you doubt the U.S. Department of Energy’s sudden projection of falling natural gas demand?
15:59 – Game Day: It’s a new world for golf fans after LIV and PGA Tour merger – How did energy make this happen?
21:40 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on, Everybody, Welcome into another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Stand up here on this gorgeous Friday, June 9th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas. [00:00:28][13.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:29] This is our weekly recaps so we appreciate you staking through us all throughout the week, which really is a wild week so many stories the team’s got some great ones picked out. As always, check us out. EnergyNewsBeat.com all the stories are available there Questions@EnergyNewsBeat.com otherwise I’m going to turn it over to the weekly recap. We’ll see you folks. [00:00:45][16.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:46] Hey, let’s start with OPEC. I mean, that was the buzz around town. OPEC’s definitely the bride at the ball or I’m not sure. [00:00:54][8.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:55] Yeah. I mean, everybody knew this I mean, they conveniently do it on a Sunday where they can announce right before markets open. They can come in and some And what I’m interested is, is covered from a high level what happened and then there’s a few things I want to get into. So walk me through what did they do on a high level? [00:01:10][15.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:10] High level they agreed to cut Let me go through that a little bit here, they are cutting a million barrels, 1.4 million barrels, an overall reduction in 2024, but that’s going to start in 1 million barrels per day by Riyadh could be extended beyond July. This is a Saudi lollipop is what he said. [00:01:33][22.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:35] Which is pretty crazy to think about that was his exact okay, because that was what I wanted to tune in on. So basically, Saudi, you know, OPEC decides to keep cuts in line with what they had. Saudi Arabia comes in over the top and cuts a million barrels a day. And the energy minister calls that the, quote, Saudi lollipop. [00:01:56][20.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:57] If you don’t think they’re mad at the way the oil markets have shaked out, this is just the cherry on top because he said it best. I mean, they really are attempting to raise oil prices just to screw with us. [00:02:10][13.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:11] Absolutely that and do you remember when they tried to put the Texas shale and the shale out of business? They I mean, and anyway, contrast, United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise the output OPEC pump there’s a couple other stats, Mike let’s cover. [00:02:31][19.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:32] OPEC pumps. 40% of the world’s crude in Russia is in OPEC+. Opec+ allowed some of the African nations to go ahead and allow for them. They were the big holdout, Michael there was a three-hour meeting before the OPEC meeting because the African nations wanted to be able to increase production and they did give it to them. [00:03:01][29.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:02] I mean, here’s the quote coming out of Saudi Energy Minister Arabias Bin Salam quote, They call it a Saudi lollipop we want to ice the cake we will do whatever it’s necessary to bring stability to this market. Dun dun, dun. [00:03:18][16.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:19] He’s referring to Biden. [00:03:20][0.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:21] Oh, you think so? [00:03:22][1.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:23] Oh, I know so no fist bump in infamy still chapped him up. [00:03:28][4.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:28] Even and this is what is is so interesting because they’re also open about the fact that demand is going to outstrip supply in quarter three, quarter four of 2023 yet they’re still cutting. [00:03:41][12.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:42] Exactly and it’s because why shouldn’t they. I, I actually applaud them for that. Yeah. [00:03:48][6.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:48] So on total Opec+. Yeah, exactly, so on total now Opec+, we’ve dropped about 4.6 million barrels per day and some countries can’t produce their quota. So the actual reduction is still somewhere around 3.5 million barrels per day or about 3% of global supply they’re cut, which is pretty crazy. You know, I think the fallout is fairly simple. Gas prices are going to go up a little bit. So sorry to, you know, fill up while you still can if you say it. [00:04:16][27.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:16] It is there is a lot of geopolitical stuff that this impacts hugely and Russia is there’s two things. [00:04:25][9.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:26] Yeah. So what’s your so give me your top cop couple fallouts from this. [00:04:30][4.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:31] The big fallout on this is Russia Iran and Iraq and Saudi Arabia have been signing deals outside of OPEC, in OPEC+. And so even though Russia wanted to increase production, it doesn’t matter what their quota is for OPEC+, because they’re producing everything they can. So it’s a it’s a like Michael, it is over it look over here, my quota. And then if I do anything else, it’s going to go over here and go to India they’re going to buy everything. [00:05:09][38.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:10] And yeah, it is interesting that a lot of that’s flowing over. Does is there any impact to the war in Ukraine? Does this do anything in there? [00:05:19][8.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:19] The war on Ukraine is really… [00:05:21][1.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:21] Russia any at any point somehow? [00:05:23][1.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:24] The war in Ukraine was designed for one reason and one reason only it’s a crime scene, clean up for graft. And then the other thing is it’s designed to take money out of the United States so that the United States can go broke. Honestly, that is why the Ukraine war is here, because we had 37 labs, bioweapons labs that last week. Now, I’m I’m serious. Last week it said that the bioweapons lab Putin got one of them. I’m sorry is dude, I’m not making this. [00:06:01][37.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:02] Lets call Faucci on it. [00:06:03][0.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:03] Biden’s controversial Bitcoin mining tax is dead or is it set to rise from the ashes like a Phenix? Let’s come down here, Michael. This goes right into the server conversation. You kind of wonder, you know what, Brilliant mind put these stories together because as we get a high, we’re going to have more servers. And I love me some Bitcoin mining. [00:06:25][21.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:26] The Bitcoin miners are being tastic when they’re using trapped or flared gas. I mean, we got some fantastic people out in the Texas environment in other areas, finding low cost energy. Go get them. It’s another revenue source for those oil companies in order to bring it in. I couldn’t be happier that they’re using waste energy for this. [00:06:53][26.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:54] The digital assets mining dam that’s all I’m going to say it like Will Smith in Men in Black you need some new drapes dam and excise tax proposal site to change crypto miners a tax equaled at 10% the cost of the electricity they use for mining in 2024 before scaling up to 30% in 2026. [00:07:22][28.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:23] It’s insane. [00:07:23][0.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:25] Biden administration is going after taxes why can’t they cut spending and lower taxes? [00:07:34][9.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:35] I don’t know. I think it’s kind of crazy that they’re going to start taxing the cost of electricity because you I mean, they want it. This is why you don’t want smart grid management. This is why you don’t want a guy running the grid because they’re going to shut this down. [00:07:50][14.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:50] Exactly. [00:07:50][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:52] They’re going to force you to pay your your 10% tax they’re literally the mob. [00:07:56][4.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:57] When I was visiting with Putin in a joking way. Okay. [00:08:00][2.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:01] Yeah. He’s not in. [00:08:03][1.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:04] Putin’s got more of the free attitude about commerce than we do, you know. Holy smokes. [00:08:11][6.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:11] Now I’m mostly kidding, but it is I mean, it’s just insane. Uncle Sam’s got to take their cut and they’ll find any place to do it. It would be interesting to see how much money you could raise from this, though. [00:08:22][10.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:23] Well, here’s the thing we are seeing, Michael, in my day to day calls with clients, with other energy experts from around the world, taxes, taxes, and oh, by the way, taxes, we’re about ready. People are looking for ways to get out of the stock market and they’re looking for ways to bury their money, not bury their money. Excuse me, but look for tax deductions. [00:08:47][24.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:48] New Jersey Clean energy Bill on hold Clean Energy Bill on Hold by Politico’s Ryan Rivard. A bill to create a nation leading clean energy plan for New Jersey won’t be taken up by state lawmakers until after the election. I couldn’t find which elections at 2024 like you said in New Jersey, S2978 would put the state on the path to get 100% of its electricity from zero-carbon sources by 2035, the most aggressive clean energy goal out of any large state. [00:09:26][38.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:27] Michael, couple tidbits in this one, and I want to give Corey Booker a shout out for our Guy of the week in here is why they said they do say that LNG is critical to help take over this. They admit, hey, we got to have natural gas in in the east, back east, northeast. There’s no pipelines from the Marcellus so they have to buy LNG. Michael Where do they buy LNG? [00:09:53][26.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:54] Russia. [00:09:54][0.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:58] Okay, here is here’s the other part of this and it is let me get in here to a quote Booker urges LNG train safety Senator Cory Booker is. Federal Transportation Secretary Pete Moody urges to prioritize public safety as the Biden administration weighs a potential ban of on trains carrying liquefied natural gas. [00:10:27][28.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:28] A Trump air rule allows trains to carry LNG, but so far, there are not shipments happening in this rule. Michael, let me get to this article. Guess what? A train is an LNG train. They then go to Chu-Chu. It actually is the separation and liquefaction of natural gas has nothing to do with transport that train is actually called the process. [00:10:59][31.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:00] So Senator Cory Booker is over here going, we need Mayor Buda Jagged to go ahead and get is to choose in line because he doesn’t want LNG spilling all over the place. They don’t get transported that way. [00:11:14][14.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:15] No Whooops! [00:11:17][2.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:19] Whoopees! You know and that brings up another point, and that is the Biden administration‘s energy group does not understand energy and how can they manage it and not understand energy? [00:11:31][11.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:32] Yeah, I mean, it just I find it funny that they in they really went after their own kind and say, really the obstacles, why this building move forward was due to traditional Democratic allies, labor unions, and surprisingly enough, environmentalists. Think about this organized labor in the state was convinced that this bill is now going to lead them to purchase cheaper out-of-state power, which will put them out of work, which is probably true. [00:11:57][25.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:58] Right. But the unions are still the only ones that are holding up and I like unions don’t get me wrong, unions have their place, but the unions are holding up the Jones Act, which is really that, you know. [00:12:12][14.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:12] You’re all about the Jones Act you got to slip that one in their Senate. [00:12:15][3.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:16] Why should you doubt the U.S. Department of Energy’s sudden projection of falling natural gas demand? Oh, I believe you tease this one up just a minute ago on that other discussion. Right. Did you read ahead, Just getting the world to green in this this article is pretty did because I don’t trust the EIA. You know they were they had the rumors that they were doing numbers to help the election this is some very big hard points right here. [00:12:48][32.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:48] The two world’s greenest governments, Germany and California, are using more gas than people realize despite literally decades of trying to get off of this. Bloomberg reports how Germany is deepening its push to expand its capacity to import LNG. [00:13:06][17.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:07] Reuters reports how the worst of its heat wave last September, natural gas generated over 60% of California’s electricity wildfires blocked the sun line. Here’s a tidbit Why are there so many fires? Because the Sierra Club would not let them do forest management. [00:13:29][22.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:32] The Sierra Club what’s interesting, though, is you’ve got to scroll down a little bit further in the article here, Stu, and you see the chart that basically shows the projections of natural gas demand. This is what they had in 2020 in 2021 in 2022, in 2023. And what you see is all of them from 2020, in the 2022, 22. You know, Andy, if you could fly up four people who are listening. [00:13:58][25.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:59] Right. [00:13:59][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:59] Go ahead and take this this this graphic here and slide up those you are listening. You’ve got the 2020 projection, the 2021 projection and the 2022 projection all positively sloped starting in 2022 out towards 2027. Well, now their new update has demand dropping from 2022 to 2026. [00:14:18][19.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:21] Huh! I’m going to pull a Scooby on this one there is no way, especially with coal being shut down, Gas is going to be going up. [00:14:28][6.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:28] What do they know? Is it COVID round two? [00:14:30][2.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:31] Now there’s a conspiracy. [00:14:32][0.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:33] I was going to say, where is the conspiracy around this? The EIA knows something we don’t know. [00:14:37][4.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:38] Well, they don’t know energy. [00:14:39][1.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:40] We know that we know that they don’t know energy so it’s hard-pressed to know anything. It’s just as demand is going to go. [00:14:48][8.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:48] The article Let me read this one part, Michael you nailed it and that’s where I was going with this thing, because you see that one green line just about rated fall off the cliff like a lemming. When you dig into the numbers on the AEO 23, it all comes down to one thing, a Herculean expectation that solar, not just in capacity, it literally explodes in actual. Generation. Not going to happen. [00:15:14][25.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:14] Per year, the U.S. Department Andrea said solar generation booming over 9% and wind rising over 3.5. And now natural gas is declining by 1.6. Somebody sat down in a board room with a crayon, broke the crayon, and then tried to draw something else again on this. We need to send them a new box of crayons. [00:15:37][22.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:38] They let the intern have the access to the model, and then he bet they forgot to double check their budget. So the intern pushed the model out and they didn’t do any quality checks. And now all of a sudden they’re like, Huh? Natural gas demand down. Woops. [00:15:51][13.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:51] Oh, no. It’s natural gas demands, actually they just are having their computers fail. [00:15:57][5.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:59] Let’s talk a little bit of Liv golf and PGA Tour, and I’ll take a step back for those of you who aren’t. You know, most people probably here are golfers. I’m not a golfer myself. I’m more of a sports fan so I take a more of a sports angle. [00:16:11][12.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:11] But I saw this news got broken on when I was watching on CNBC it’s kind of funny David Faber on CNBC. CNBC got this scoop, the Liv golf PGA Tour merger, CNBC got this, not ESPN, which is funny, but to back it up Liv Golf or the PGA Tour is kind of the established, you know, most exclusive and highest graded professional tour for men’s golfers. [00:16:33][22.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:34] You know, two years ago or a year and a half ago, Saudi Arabia started a list the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, the PFI for the PIF is what it’s called, decided to start there only and pay an enormous sum of money for some of the top players. We’re talking two, three, $400 million contracts for players. [00:16:52][18.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:52] And remind you the PGA Tour, there are no contracts. You win purses based upon your standings in each event. So going so completely changing the way players were paid and caused a huge rift in the golf community. Some people loved Liv, some people hated Liv. Well, now the two are merging in incomplete. Michael Scott, Paper Company, Fashion. [00:17:12][19.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:12] Liv Golf is now going to merge with the PGA Tour the public investment zone of Saudi Arabia is going to become basically the premier corporate sponsor and dump billions of dollars into the PGA. And it shocked both the business and the sports world and it was a really interesting moment where two things collide. [00:17:31][18.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:32] And of course, what we do in Energy News Beat is we figure out how to we have to figure out how that comes in with energy. So I’m going to read you the publisher’s note that Stu wrote, and then we’ll kind of dive into the fallout. [00:17:41][9.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:41] Well, watching all of the fallout from this wild merger with Liv and the PGA, it occurred to me that we have to wonder how this came about. In stark contrast to the United States energy policy, Saudi Arabia has implemented a Saudi first energy policy for years. While I do not agree with everything going on with the Saudi leaders. [00:17:57][16.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:58] I’ve always applauded their energy policies they’re spending billions on the energy transition and social programs for the Saudi citizens. So don’t blame the PGA leadership look to the United States for do have the icing on the merger with our weaponizing the dollar, printing money and destroying the United States energy independence. Stu says all that while brokering the deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States. He’s he’s he’s he’s with them by reaching his hand out. [00:18:22][23.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:22] Again. I say all that as a joking matter to say, you know, we how this impacts energy I think is is a step back and it’s more of a geopolitical. Saudi Arabia is attempting to ingratiate itself with the west is trying to do that they’re paying they’re doing the same thing with some of the top soccer players. Cristiano Ronaldo now plays in Saudi Arabia there are other players are they attempted to get Lionel Messi. He’s now looks like as of today going are going to be getting a little bit of an ownership stake in inter Miami. So he’s coming to the MLS, which is interesting. [00:18:52][29.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:52] But in doing all of these moves, they’re attempting to ingratiate themselves and continue to gain influence over the Western world. I mean, they all I mean, think about when to step back. This is very little, in my opinion, to do with golf from a Saudi perspective and a way for them to continue to ingratiate themselves in Western society. You know, they’ve been going back to the unfortunate murder of Jamal Khashoggi there they’ve had a dark cloud over them. [00:19:19][27.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:20] And I mean, and remember, the original Liv golf outcry from PGA Tour was the 911 crowd. They weren’t happy yesterday, and rightfully so. I mean, Saudi Arabia was most likely responsible for 911. How do you manage those two things together in terms of, you know, okay, those things are now going to be at the forefront of people’s minds and how do we continue, again, to ingratiate because they feel like we were responsible for 911 and we were definitely responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. How do we continue to win some of that stuff back? And this is, you know, one step,. [00:19:54][34.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:55] And I think Stu brought it up first Saudi has been a country of energy, of Saudi first when it comes to everything, specifically energy, specifically oil and gas. And this type of investment is an attempt to diversify, is not so much, in my opinion, an attempt to diversify away from oil and gas I heard that all of that conversation going on a lot. [00:20:15][19.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:15] But in my opinion, it’s ingratiating themselves with Western society so that they can continue to do what they want and their bread and butter and continue to have oil prices. If all this renewables happens, oil prices will rise I was going to make a ton of money and make a ton of money I thought it was funny you know. [00:20:33][18.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:34] The last thing on this Liv golfing, Trump called it. So two years or, you know, last year, July seven, eight, 2022, on the almost dead social platform drew social at real Donald Trump. Quote, All of those golfers that remain, quote, loyal to the very disloyal PGA in all of its different forms will pay a big price when it comes the inevitable merger with. [00:20:54][20.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:55] The inevitable merger with Liv comes and you will get nothing but a big quote. Thank you from the PGA officials who are making millions of dollars a year if you don’t take the money now, you will get nothing after the merger takes place and only say how smart the original signings were and good luck to all and congratulations to the talented Cam Smith on an incredible win. [00:21:09][14.3]
Michael Tanner :[00:21:09] I think there was the U.S. Open when Cam Smith won it that immediately jumped to Liv. Trump called it last year the the PGA Liv merger you heard it on Truth Social First. So about four people heard it. Stuart For sure in between running Putin’s campaign in and and basically getting all this set up, he he snuck that news to Trump last year. [00:21:09][0.0]
