Daily Energy Standup Episode #48 Nat Gas futures drop, G7 reviews price cap on Russian oil, Texas brings home the bacon and Oil and Gas pay for schools

The guys continue on their race to be legends in their own minds, and Michael admits he is better looking than Stu. Enough of the pleasantries; The top stories are nat gas and the 9th largest economy in the world has a budget surplus, and oil and gas funds the education system. Texas won again, and compared to California, the energy policies are the biggest reason.

Gavin Newsom stops by the podcast to congratulate the boys on the 100,000 downloads of the podcast.

   G7 agrees to review level of price cap on Russian oil in March

U.S. natgas futures drop 5% to 19-month low on less cold forecasts   

TXOGA released annual Energy & Economic Impact Report      

Central Banks Turn to Gold as Losses Mount   

 


Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro
03:22 – TXOGA in their annual energy economic report
07:08 – G7 agrees to review level of price cap on Russian oil in March.
09:26 – Central Banks Turn to Gold as Losses Mount
11:22 – Exxon halts routine gas flaring in the Permian and they want others to follow actual drilling
16:28 – U.S. natgas futures drop 5% to 19-month low on less cold forecasts   
17:10 – U.S. Oil Refineries set for a strong Q4 earnings is Margins Day High
19:22 – Market Updates
22:39 Outro


TXOGA

The guys continue on their race to be legends in their own minds, and Michael admits he is better looking than Stu. Enough of the pleasantries; The top stories are nat gas and the 9th largest economy in the world has a budget surplus, and oil and gas funds the education system. Texas won again, and compared to California, the energy policies are the biggest reason.

Gavin Newsom stops by the podcast to congratulate the boys on the 100,000 downloads of the podcast.

   G7 agrees to review level of price cap on Russian oil in March

U.S. natgas futures drop 5% to 19-month low on less cold forecasts   

TXOGA released annual Energy & Economic Impact Report      

Central Banks Turn to Gold as Losses Mount   

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on. Everybody, welcome into another edition of The Daily Ed Husic. Stand up here on this really chilly Thursday, January 26, 2023. As always, I’m your humble, humble correspondent Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas. As I mentioned, it is actually kind of cold here. I’ll admit. I had to wear a jacket. So for everybody who thinks it doesn’t get cold here in Texas, actually, I’ll admit it gets a little cold. [00:00:41][26.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:42] I had to throw a jacket on, but it’s unfortunately not doing much to impact natural gas prices, the the temperature here in Dallas. So hopefully that translates here at some because we’ll cover all that here coming up. But I am joined by the executive producer of the show, the prepared show, and the director and publisher of the world’s greatest website, www.EnergyNewsBeat.com, Stuart Turley, my man, How are we doing today?. [00:01:02][20.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:02] This building in the neighborhood? Was that a fur coat or did you just take your shirt off? [00:01:06][3.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:07] It was a fur coat, actually. I wore full on deer skin for sure. So fly it. Actually, it was mountain lion. If you imagine me rolling into the office with some mountain lion. The mountain lion on the hood is the face. [00:01:21][14.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:23] You shot around here doing that. [00:01:25][1.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:26] Do you look like one of those? I’ve always thought that you were one of those people that as a kid, you wore the raccoon hats with little, as did you. [00:01:33][7.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:34] Yes. And my toy. My toy when I was growing up was a metal hoop, and I’d run behind it. Kind of like a barrel hoop. Okay. I was I was old. We didn’t have toys. [00:01:45][11.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:45] Yeah, no, no kidding. Well, you know, we’ve got a lot to cover in today’s show. Stu, you have a great show lined up for us. We’re going to start first domestically here. The Texas Oil and Gas Association released its annual Energy Economic Impact report. We have an article on EnergyNewsBeat about that, which we will cover. [00:02:05][19.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:06] The next article is the G7 agrees to review level of price cap on Russian oil in March. An interesting next one. This is the one that I picked out. Central banks turn to gold as losses mount. We’ll cover it slightly. Mainly just, you know, in 2022. We know that central banks have purchased the most amount of gold in history. [00:02:22][16.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:22] I think there’s something in there that does not bode well for 2023. QE2 is a little bit shaped by ExxonMobil coming out and halting routine gas flaring in the Permian. They want others to follow. I won’t I’ll just leave it at that and let you take it over. Stu. The EIA also released its short term energy outlook for January 2023. We’ve got a great article on that. And then finally, U.S. oil refiners set for a strong Q4 earnings as margins stay high. We’ll bring it over to me then. And I will cover oil and natural gas prices, which, as I mentioned, are below $3 for the first time since January of 2021. Yikes. [00:02:58][35.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:59] We have all of that in a bag of chips coming up, guys. But first check us out www.EnergyNewsBeat.com. With all the articles that we cover you can find them there hit the description below. Check out dashboard on EnergyNewsBeat.com. The best place for all of your oil and gas data news. Enough of the pleasantries though, Stu. We’ve got loads of great stories. Where do you want to begin? [00:03:20][20.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:21] Well, let’s start with TXOGA in their annual energy economic report. This is just amazing, Mike. Texas is the ninth biggest economy in the world. And how many billions do they have left over after oil and gas revenue 24 billion?. [00:03:38][17.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:40] Yeah, I mean, that’s pretty sane. So what are these references in fiscal year 2020 to the Texas oil and gas? The Texas oil and natural gas industry paid 24.7 billion in state and local taxes and state royalties, by far the highest total in Texas history, shattering the previous record of just over 16 billion by set in 2019. That’s by 54%. Basically, that translates to $67 million every single year. [00:04:04][24.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:05] To give you an idea of production taxes, which are tied to the amount of oil and gas that’s actually produced, increased by 5.8 billion a 160% increase in royalties to state funds increased by 2.2 billion, a mere 102% increase in point, to give you an idea is due in 2020 to 99% of the state’s oil and natural gas royalties were deposited into the public school fund and public university money, which supports Texas public education. Each fund received 2.1 billion, more than double the amount from last year. So I mean, Texans probably has great schools. [00:04:39][34.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:40] Oh yeah. This one 2022. The industry employed 443,000 Texans who earn an average of 115 K each, roughly 40% average pay in other private sectors. Our oil and gas folks work hard for that money. You can’t I mean, there are some hardships out there. Those are some hard working folks. Even in the offices, they don’t have the same work ethics or. Anything else. It’s tough business in the oil and gas space. I got a little warm. I got to get a little bit of my work up here for this next article. [00:05:19][39.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:20] Yeah we got to get, You got to get you. We got to get you revved up here. But I think it just goes to show there are upsides to increase in oil and gas production that, you know, is ubiquitous across political spectrums and that this money’s going in. There’s these state royalties that all oil and gas that is evil, that all of these oil and gas, evil oil and gas producers pay is going directly back into the schools. I mean, this is it is this is some slush fund going somewhere. I mean, there’s you know, I you know, I would love to see where Texas ranks on public schools. I bet they’re close to the top, if only for this reason. [00:05:53][33.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:54] Let me throw this one at you. And that is California. California is in a deficit that they they owe a lot of money. Texas got a lot of extra money. What’s the difference? California is buying all good news is shutting down the oil and gas industry. They’re importing 70% of their energy into the state, paying China, paying all these other people. They’re tearing apart the Amazon. And we’re supposed to sit here and say that Texas is bad. Now, I like me Texas. Sorry. [00:06:30][35.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:30] No, I’m with you. There’s there’s a reason I’m here and not anywhere else, so I’ll say that. We’re going to pivot now to our next section. We have Governor Gavin Newsom here live. Stu, we’re going to you and Gavin. [00:06:41][11.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:42] Hey there. Again. I’d like to ask you, do you really think the Second Amendment is a. [00:06:48][6.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:51] The Second Amendment question? [00:06:52][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:53] He was just saying that today, saying the Second Amendment is a death pack as well. [00:06:58][4.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:59] It’s saying all I want to do is go out. Needed the French Laundry after this. What do you got next? [00:07:04][4.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:05] Etc., etc.. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment today, Michael. The G7 agrees to review level of price cap on Russian oil in March. Okay. For our podcast listeners, I’m doing. [00:07:18][13.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:18] My podcast listeners. Do you got to bring the mic closer to you? [00:07:22][3.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:22] Okay, I’m bringing my palm to my forehead. Thank you. Oh, my gosh. This is about one of the dumbest things I have ever heard in my life. Okay, Sanctions don’t work. All they do is increase the pricing. This one, this brings up a very big reason about your other article for gold. Why are all the banks moving to go? [00:07:46][23.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:46] It’s because this is one of the main reasons that the dollar is being moved away. You have China, you have Russia, and you have all these others are moving oil away from the dollar standard. What’s the only way countries are going to be able to follow back on this? They have gone the gold standard. So this all these are interrelated and it’s painful because nobody realizes that it’s in power. So. [00:08:14][27.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:15] Yeah, I thought it was interesting. So specifically, what the G-7 did is they planned on February 5th to set two different price caps, one on products that traded a premium to crude such as diesel or gas oil, and one for products that trade at a discount to crude such as fuel oil. I think it’s very interesting, Stu,. [00:08:31][16.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:31] Here’s the quote from US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Amin Yama, who met virtually. Oh, that’s a tough job. “The deputies agreed that this approach will better calibrate the price cap policy for refined products, given the wide range of market prices at which these products rage”. I mean, it’s the blind leading the blind. [00:08:49][17.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:50] It is. And it’s kind of like that meme that I put out. [00:08:54][3.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:54] Yeah, you’re all over the meme. I mean, if you guys haven’t looked at Stuart Turley’s Twitter handle, I mean, it’s insane. I look at it, it’s it’s absolutely insane. Well, what you handles at Stuart_Turley 16. [00:09:07][12.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:09] STUARTTURLEY16. And STUART TURLEY in all caps early. [00:09:12][3.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:13] STUARTTURLEY16. Check him out. I am Tanner_1. Give us a call. I’m not nearly as fun as Stu, though, so. [00:09:19][5.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:19] Oh, that was a good one, though, I got to admit, my friend Biden’s neck. [00:09:23][3.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:23] Let’s go. Next up here, we’ve got central banks turn gold turned to gold as losses mount. I really think it’s just as Stu mentioned, there’s a lot of different factors at play. But as I mentioned in the open, central banks in 2022 purchased the largest amount of gold in recent history. According to the World Gold Council. [00:09:40][16.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:40] Central bank purchases have reached a level not seen since 1967. In fact, World central banks bought a whopping 673 metric tons in one month, and that in the third quarter that figure is estimated to reach 400 metric tons. I mean, just to give you guys an idea, that’s 1967. We were on the gold standard. So, I mean, you know, I think, Stu, you did a great job of talking about what what does this mean? Why is everybody moving to gold while it’s because we’re in an inflationary period right now? [00:10:09][29.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:09] I mean, it’s clear that the way the currency has been managed up until now has been lackluster at best. And there’s a lot of lot of dollars chasing very few goods and things are continuing to rise. Does this price cap do anything to help? No, because the Russians are back on a gold standard. You know, there’s a reason Russia’s on this list. Do what? You got to pop in here. What do you do? [00:10:33][24.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:34] Okay, here’s here’s where it gets the numbers. Hit the road here in the Financial Times claims that the central banks are already suffering significant losses as a result of falling values of the bonds by the end of the second quarter 2022. The Federal Reserve, the Fed out of the U.S. had lost 720 billion, while the Bank of England had only lost 200 billion. Now you see where the difference is. I would rather lose 200 billion, then 720 billion. [00:11:08][33.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:10] Yeah. What’s a few billion between friends, though? [00:11:12][2.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:13] Okay. What else you get? [00:11:14][1.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:14] Well, what’s next? We looks at. You want to go to Exxon or crude oil production? [00:11:17][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:18] Oil to you. Exxon has routine flaring. Michael. This article is Exxon halts routine gas flaring in the Permian and they want others to follow actual drilling. Really nice. Excellent. That is so ESG friendly of Exxon. Let’s give them a big round of applause. What a bunch of morons. Let me let me just say this. 50% of the U.S. oil and gas, I’m on a break. And this one got me worked up this one 50% of the EMP companies produce privately held companies in the U.S produce 50% of our oil in Texas over the last 5 to 7 years. Texas voluntarily, the people of Texas, the EMP operators, have cut flaring to the bone. There is no I mean, it is significantly different. It did some, our guys we wake up and say flaring is bad and everybody in Texas has already been getting rid of flaring. This one got me worked up and saying, oh, everybody else needs to follow you morons. Sorry. [00:12:34][76.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:36] Yeah. I mean, I’m going to push back a little bit. I think there’s there’s a decent amount of flaring going on. [00:12:40][4.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:42] But it’s not like it was. Now, have you ever looked at Iran and you ever looked at Saudi Arabia? I mean, that was just because of that. And if the wells are designed properly and done, there’s takeaway before you can ever do it. And there’s a ton of Bitcoin miners out there that drop in a mining facility right at the wellhead. And both you got some Bitcoin mining going on. So I’m going to ah, I’m going to push back again. We’re going to have a pushback here because I’m going to say, Have you ever seen Iran? [00:13:16][33.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:18] Yeah, I mean, I guess you could say that about anything, man. Have you been to I mean, everything’s probably worse in Iran. I bet you there’s not one thing you could come up with that’s better. What is the elevator music to. [00:13:30][11.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:32] The imams going around beating people? That would be the only thing I could think of. [00:13:35][3.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:35] I don’t illegally punch somebody because you’re an elder. That’s. That’s what you can do. You can legally assault me because technically, you’re my elder. Anytime I claim you have the Zika virus, you can just death. [00:13:46][10.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:47] We know who the real guy is. The master of this podcast Is that you? so. [00:13:51][4.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:53] It’s not me. Here’s. Here’s the other thing I just want to point out in this article, there’s the one of the funniest quotes of all time. This this, this made the article. Burning less gas during production is an easy way to curb greenhouse gas emissions and increase gas production, according to the genius consultants over at Rystad Energy. [00:14:09][15.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:09] I hope that costs six figures for them to come to that conclusion. I hope it was six figures. I hope it was a fact check. I hope they brought in multiple people just at the end of the day say, you know what, We burn less gas during production. We could eliminate greenhouse gases and increase gas production. You know genius, genius. [00:14:29][19.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:30] You remember Johnny Carson, this guy, this comedian, he always had the amazing credit, the amazing Chris and I’ve done before, you know, And he pulls out a symbol and the question is, who is our guy of the week? Oh, when we go over here, that guy let me open this up. It is the guy from Rystad. Let’s hear it for everybody. Yes. [00:14:54][24.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:56] I wish. That guy. Oh, that’s genius. I just I was I was literally laughing out loud reading this quote. It was, you know, you say lol and you don’t really mean it. You just say it like filler in the text just so you don’t look weird. I was actually like. I sing out loud reading this. So. Okay, let’s do our U.S. crude oil production. Still new records. It looks like. [00:15:17][21.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:18] We’re ready to roll. And I bet there’s lowest flaring going on. [00:15:21][3.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:23] There’s probably no there’s there’s probably zero flaring, zero flaring and record production. [00:15:27][4.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:28] Yeah, This is the big paragraph in this what Michael is we forecast U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate that Michael that’s WTI you know minds guys. [00:15:39][11.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:39] Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you guys. [00:15:41][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:42] So Crude price will average 77 per barrel in 2023 and 72 in 2024. Speaking of amazing crescent, holy smokes, how are they able to figure that out? I can’t even figure out how to get bathroom half the time. That is not. You can’t do that any more. I mean, they’re. [00:15:59][17.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:00] Probably just doing their surprised licking their finger and just putting it up in the air. I mean, I wonder what this gets me. I’m 77, you know, I mean, they’re just they’re being conservative. You’d rather be more conservative than you would positive. But you know, I don’t mind that average that I don’t mind that average. That seems more realistic than 100 bucks. [00:16:17][17.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:17] Yeah. I mean, which would you rather be? Forrest Gump, who’s dumb and and happy or would you rather be smart and stupid and predict something like this? I. [00:16:26][8.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:28] I don’t, I don’t know how to respond other than as an idea. Oh the EIA they forecasted on the United States to average 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.8 million barrels per tweet, surpassing the previous record amount of 12.3 set in 2019. In 2022, we averaged 11.9 million barrels per day and that was due to the Permian reason, mainly increase in the Permian and offshore. And it looks like 2023 is mainly grown by offshore as well. Peak oil, It’s not here. [00:17:01][32.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:02] I believe there was an article offshore doing big in that. [00:17:05][3.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:06] Yeah, you know. [00:17:07][1.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:09] Some factories and this one was a big one. The title of it is U.S. Oil Refineries set for a strong Q4 earnings is Margins Day High. There’s a couple big pieces of this we talked a few days ago about, I believe it’s Exxon building on to a new refinery in Texas, and it’s one of the biggest updates that they’ve done. But when you take a look, this one right here, this paragraph is Valero. [00:17:37][27.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:37] I’m going to read two paragraphs here. Valero Energy, the second largest U.S. refinery by capacity kicks off earnings Thursday with projected share of $7.19, nearly three times that to 47 a year ago. Give me a woop woop. [00:17:55][17.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:56] Woop woop. [00:17:56][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:58] I can’t do it. All right, now let’s go to top refiner. Marathon Petroleum is forecasted to show $5 in $0.70 per share compared to a 127. So refinery is absolutely profitable. I’m hoping they can just keep them open because they’re running at, what, 87 to 98% capacity and you really need them to shut down to do maintenance. I’m a little worried about that sometimes. Yeah. [00:18:30][32.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:32] I’d love to own some refineries, both whether it’s in stocks or dividends. So I will I will take it. But, you know, again, as this article does mention, the US crack spread, which is the measure between the profit, between the buying oil and selling gasoline and diesel did peak last quarter at 45 bucks. [00:18:50][17.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:50] So it’ll be very interesting to see and that’s more than double the peak. So you I don’t know, you know, if where they go from here still there’s still upside I would probably lean bullish here Amazing crest. [00:19:04][13.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:06] At 40 this is a bigger bigger envelope bigger question. [00:19:09][2.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:12] All right anything else now? [00:19:14][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:15] I think we’re good. It was a it was a lot of devastation. It’s up to you. Hey, it looks like we’re getting a lot of downloads dude. [00:19:21][6.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:22] Yeah, I’ll, I’ll, I’ll, I’ll, I’ll finish up with some finance here at currently as we record this is about 645 on the 25th oil trades at 8048 natural gas trades at 295 Wolf to start with crude oil fairly fairly relaxed. Today we saw a slight, slight crude oil build of about 5 million barrels, which relative to the increases we’ve seen, it is not terrible. [00:19:50][27.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:51] You know, you can check that out and all of those numbers via the dashboard. Speaking of that, I had a great call about the dashboard today. If you guys a little inside scoop we’re rolling out V2 here very soon V2 is is is is very close to being coming out. We’ve got a lot of great. Stuff in the. [00:20:11][19.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:11] Works. V2 is version to the Energy News Beat dashboard. Is that correct? [00:20:19][7.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:19] Yes. I don’t explain it because if you don’t know what V2 is, you’re dumb and I don’t care about your opinion. Just kidding. [00:20:25][5.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:25] I know you don’t. [00:20:26][0.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:26] So I’m just kidding. But also not really, because it was a 500,000, not a 5,500,000 barrel increase in crude oil stocks. So relatively flat. I think that’s partially why you don’t see stocks move as much. Again, we’re dealing with increased production going on in terms of the future forecast, but I think that’s being met with adequate demand specifically coming from China. And, you know, COVID is long behind us. So I think we have to get back on the constant theme of growth as we move forward. Over on the natural gas side, guys, I mean, I mean, things just just seem to really be going south, no pun intended, for natural gas. You know with this milder to cooler or to warmer January February, coming in with the prospect of huge natural gas supplies with Freeport only being able to export two Bcf a day when we might see a storage increase or a storage increase this week to give you an idea, Stu. [00:21:23][57.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:23] Analysts as you as you listen to this podcast on Thursday, you’ll know. But the expectation is that the range will be a draw between 76,000,094 or excuse me, 76 and 94 Bcf last year we drew 217. So I mean we are way below normal draw amounts and I think that is weighing heavily on prices right now. I will again stand at the Rock and take one for the team and say I got natural gas completely wrong. I thought we were going to be at ten bucks. But here’s why I get paid the small bucks so that, you know, they just Goldman Sachs just rolls me out when they need some. So they need a bull to do something to roll out on CNBC. But a dollar gas. [00:22:08][45.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:09] You know, they’re not right back. Yeah, you’re the smart one here. I’m just the straight man. Yeah, well. [00:22:13][4.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:14] I’m better looking than you, so that’s for sure. And that’s really all I got. Stu. Anything else? [00:22:19][5.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:20] Oh, no. It’s a great day in the Nozarks. [00:22:22][2.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:23] Now, It’s a it’s a great day. And, you know, we appreciate everybody tuning in. We got a lot of great stuff coming up. We’ve got some great things in the works. Keep us rolling. I don’t know what Stu’s laughing about. [00:22:34][10.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:34] But. I’ll save it for Tomorrow Shift. [00:22:37][3.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:39] Meanwhile, you might unexpectedly have Zika virus again. We never we might never know, guys. With that, we’re going to let you get out of here. Get back to work. Thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest energy Podcast, Oil Dealing Jews Bead, stand up. Check us out online dashboard EnergyNewsBeat.com. EnergyNewsBeat.com for Stuart Turley. I’m Michael Tanner. See you tomorrow. [00:22:39][0.0]