Daily Energy Standup Episode #84 – Norway’s fantastic Natural Gas Exports – Goldman not seeing $100 oil – UBS and Credit Suisse

Daily Standup Top Stories

How does Norway export its natural gas? But more importantly; to who?

​OSLO, March 17 (Reuters) – Norway exported more than 120 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2022, mainly via pipelines, making it Europe’s largest gas supplier following a drop in Russian flows last year. […]

Exxon’s Texas Plant Is Likely the Last Major U.S. Refinery Project

​ When Exxon Mobil Corp.’s newest addition to its southeast Texas refinery ramps up to full production in the next few weeks, it’ll be the first major expansion of US fuel-making capacity in at least […]

Goldman Sachs No Longer Sees Oil Reaching $100 This Year

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the most bullish banks on its outlook for oil, has nudged its forecasts down as worries over the banking sector and the potential for recession outweigh a surge in […]

UBS Agrees to Buy Rival Credit Suisse

By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Michael J. de la Merced and Maureen Farrell Andrew Ross Sorkin, Michael de la Merced and Maureen Farrell cover global finance from New York and London. UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse, its beleaguered […]

Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar – The petroyuan will reign supreme – Supported by the oil dark fleet.

The Biden administration has blundered their way into long term financial problems for the United States. There is no recovery.  […]


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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on everybody, Welcome into another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat. Stand Up here on this gorgeous Monday, March 20th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Taylor, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas, joined by the executive producer, the show, the purveyor of the show, the director and publisher of the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com , Stuart Turley, my man, how you doing today? [00:00:37][21.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:37] It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood and it’s a great day for digging a ditch. No wonder I’m a podcast host. [00:00:43][5.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:44] Yeah, we’ve had a little insight, guys. I love. We log into the show, we record the base via Zoom, and Stu’s got the Theragune all over him. So it must have been a rough day as we report this actually on Saturday before the possible bank run. [00:00:59][15.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:00] So if you’re listening to this and there’s a current bank run going on, may the force be with you. We’ll see what happens. But we will cover everything that’s happened in the last couple of days. Stu has a tremendous line up for us, but we will begin talking about Norway. [00:01:14][14.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:15] First article we have is How does Norway export its natural gas? But more importantly, to who next? We actually have something that we ran on our substack called Iran Saudi are reappropriate will deal a death blow to the dollar. The petro yarn will reign supreme supported by the oil dark fleet that was authored by the one and only Stuart Turley so, you know, it’s doom and gloom. [00:01:36][21.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:37] Next line Exxon’s Texas plant is likely to last to be the last major U.S. refinery project. This is, I think, a critical story, the 250,000 barrel a day addition to the Exxon factory down in Beaumont, possibly might be the last we get in the refining sectors to still cover what that means all around. [00:01:56][18.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:56] Next. This is my favorite article that will cover Goldman Sachs no longer sees oil reaching 100 this year. I will save it all for that segment next. Top Biden adviser says U.S. won’t rush to fill the petroleum reserve. This is actually extremely weird. So Stu, we’ll cover what that means. I mean, I thought they were going to they had publicly agreed to do it at 71 or 70, I think. So It’ll be interesting to see what drives it. [00:02:19][22.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:19] And then finally, the news that everybody is talking about breaking news here on this Sunday, but everybody on Saturday or on Monday is dealing with the fallout. UBS agrees to buy rival quite a three for a little over $2 billion. Stu will deal with that breaking fall he will kick it over to me. We’ll just quickly cover what’s going on in the oil and gas markets and mainly try to make sense of what’s going on going forward. [00:02:39][20.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:40] Guys, before we do again, check us out online WWW.ENERGYNEWSBEAT.COM all the stories we’re about to cover are courtesy that website. You can hit the description below and see all the different articles and you can also check out the timestamps if you’re interested in just hopping around to certain segments we hit all of that coming up. [00:02:56][16.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:57] Hit us at Dashboard.EnergyNewsBeat.com it’s our day to energy news combined. Get it while it’s still here you never know what might happen to it so please Dashboard.EnergyNewsBeat.com EnergyNewsBeat.com. Stu, I’m out of breath. Where do you want to begin? [00:03:10][13.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:11] I’ll tell you what. I love Norway. And let’s start at Norway. As we go across the pond, How does Norway export its natural gas? But more importantly, to who or to whom? Depending if my aunt is talking to us. So if you target Norway, they exported more than 120 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022 via pipelines. [00:03:36][25.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:37] There is a pipeline system that’s put in there that’s been going on for 70 years. It’s just amazing. And Michael, as a side note, you and I talked about Norway two years ago shutting down their gas and boy, they have had a change of heart there. So who receives Norwegian gas? [00:03:56][19.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:57] They also have only one export facility for LNG. So it’s all pipeline and the pipelines are connected to seven receiving terminals. Britain and Germany each have two and Belgium, Denmark and France all have one. That’s significant for a complete infrastructure. [00:04:17][20.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:18] And the link that’s in here goes to the gas the pipeline system is on the government and the Norway government site and it is worth going in and taking a look at that. It comes from the North Sea as well as the Norwegian fields online. And it’s amazing when you take a look at how much the system can deliver 6.5 billion cubic meters of LNG per year that’s just of LNG. [00:04:47][28.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:48] And it says in the article it’s only 5% of the Norwegian gas exports mean low key. Norway’s probably loving what’s going on internationally right now. They probably have warned Ukraine, but the fact that they’re now the chief exporter among all of these European countries and they’re filling up and they basically have unlimited demand for Norwegian gas, I mean. [00:05:08][20.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:08] I mean. [00:05:09][0.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:09] They probably like it. [00:05:10][0.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:11] Oh, absolutely. And. So they are starting their more EMP Operations. It’s amazing. [00:05:17][5.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:17] Why would you not? [00:05:17][0.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:18] It’s amazing how they were about ready to curtail that. [00:05:20][2.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:21] So what money does. [00:05:23][1.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:23] It is. So let’s go to the next one. Hey, Michael, This one came off of the EnergyNewsBeat Substack The Iran. Sorry, will reprinted right here. [00:05:35][11.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:36] I noticed that. So to give everybody of notice, if you wondered why I stuttered in my initial orbit is because he’s got a typo. He’s got beautiful Substack article. Can’t figure out how to he needs an e reapproachment. [00:05:47][10.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:47] Reapproachment said what an idiot. I better talk to somebody on that one. Oh, that’s me. Will a deal Death blow to the dollar? The petro on will arrange a supreme supported by the oil and dark fleet.. [00:06:02][14.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:03] Dun dun dun. [00:06:04][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:06] There are three big articles that I used when looking at this, and people are calling it the Ghost Fleet. Some people are calling it the Dark Fleet, the Gray Fleet. So we’re just going to call it the Dark Fleet, and here’s why. [00:06:21][15.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:22] So when you take a look, all of the problems in the oil and gas market are coming from U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Russia. The next part of that is the geopolitical stuff that the Biden administration is doing, is enhancing Russia, China, Iran, Iraq and India all to move over to the petro dollar. [00:06:50][28.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:50] And what that means is they’re going to be trading into they’re going away from the petrodollar. So and then the S&P Global really got into it. [00:07:02][12.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:03] The S&P global paper says they estimate 4443 tankers with greater distributed weight. More than 10,000 are currently operating in the Ghost Shadow or Dark Fleet, whichever one you want to pick. They’re adding 33 a month to that. Michael. It’s just amazing how many are going there. [00:07:28][25.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:29] Yeah, it is. I highly recommend subscribing to our Substack You can do that via the description below because Stu puts a lot of really, I mean really custom content there. I mean, again, this is again as I mentioned it, this maybe is it is doom and gloom, but it does get into specifically I love when we talk about spoofing doping. [00:07:45][16.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:46] I mean, the Dark Fleet is real. I will admit there are tankers that we don’t know about. You know, people openly write about them. You’ve got the beautiful quote here from S&P Global. Do I believe the petro yarn ban will actually start? No, But let’s play let’s play the theory out. [00:08:01][15.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:01] If it does happen, it’s disastrous for the world, at least not not the world economy, because China would love it, but it would be disastrous for our cement nation as the global economic player. We just become another country in the mix. [00:08:14][12.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:14] Yes, we still have a strong military, but from an economic standpoint, we wouldn’t be able to wield nearly as much power. So to play the counterfactual, it is scary. Now, do I agree that it’s going to go there? I don’t think so. But I’ve been wrong before. [00:08:27][13.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:28] Well, I think it’s going that way because of the Biden administration. I’ll be quite honest with you. [00:08:34][5.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:35] You were a fan of him. [00:08:35][0.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:36] I actually like my country, but when we sit back and Ben and we you sit back and think they are doing everything that they possibly can to be stupid and they are driving the rest of the world away from the United States, There’s my opinion on their ass next. Their actions are doing it, not me. So okay,. [00:08:59][22.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:59] Fair enough but what do we got next? [00:09:01][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:02] Exxon’s Texas plant is likely the last major U.S. refineries. Michael, this is huge. Speaking of Biden and his policies, you’re not going to be able to get anymore. For our podcast listeners, Michael has got his head banging against the mike. He knows that I’m on a roll today. Bang, bang, bang. [00:09:24][21.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:25] So you have marathon and 1977 was the last 1978 was the last year that we had a very large refinery built. The only other ones have been small refineries and then this is the largest refinery upgrade. They increased 250,000 barrel increase in daily capacity that will make the Beaumont complex second in size to Saudi Aramco’s plant in Port Arthur. Holy smoke. That’s a biggie. [00:09:59][33.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:00] Yeah, I mean, 250,000 barrels a day refining capacity is nothing to sneeze at. It’s not great. We probably need for more of those. But I think the way that they had to go about getting this permitted was absolutely insane. [00:10:13][12.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:13] We talked about they’ve been in this been in the work for over five, five years now. They’ve been trying to make this pitch, I think it said in the article Stu. So think about that. Five years to just get 250,000 barrels because of the advanced regulations that it took to even get to this point in an existing refinery. Imagine a new refinery. It’s not going to happen. [00:10:33][19.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:33] The only thing you’re going to see going forward is these extensions. It’s, you know, regulated into legislation. Stu has talked about it again and again and again and this is another unfortunate example that he’s right. As much as I hate to say, it. [00:10:46][12.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:48] Kind of goes back to what my earlier comment was about, the that’s one of the things that’s going off on Twitter. I showed this robot falling down a thing of escalator stairs, and I put on there the Biden energy policy as it takes out a whole bunch of people at the bottom of the escalator. [00:11:03][15.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:05] Okay. All right. What’s next? I think my favorite stories up next. [00:11:07][2.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:08] It is. This is all you, baby. Goldman Sachs no longer sees oil reaching $100 a year. There’s a nice video from Bloomberg in there, too. So, quote, Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom, giving banking given banking stress, recession fears and an exodus of investor flows, the bank said in a March 18th note. [00:11:31][23.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:32] Historically, after such scarring, event positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially after long dated prices. So we got down to, what, 73 a barrel this past. [00:11:46][14.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:46] We’re 66 right now. [00:11:48][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:48] Yeah. Oops. What are your thoughts, Michael? [00:11:50][2.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:51] I mean, that quote still is some of the most cogent and coherent analysis I’ve ever heard out of Goldman Sachs, because they’re exactly right. Everybody was banking on Chinese demand as going to be the catalyst for oil prices. [00:12:06][14.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:06] Well, guess what, guys? China demand is back and oil prices have only continued to slump. Why? Because demand, supply and demand are not necessarily the only things that impact oil prices. The when we go into a recession, oil prices do not do well as these banks start failing in the midst of it. UBS is buying Credit Suisse. We’re about to cover that for $2 billion. That was like a $50 billion bank. At one point, they’re getting bought for 2 billion. Okay. [00:12:35][29.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:36] Wow. [00:12:36][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:37] So when the whenever the recession comes, whether it’s here or not, oil prices will not do well. So, I mean, I read this again. Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom. Given banking stress, recession fears, an exodus of investor flows. Historically, after such scarring, events and position prices recover only gradually, especially long dated projects. [00:12:57][20.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:57] What are they saying there? Oh, even Q3, Q4 prediction is probably going to be lower than we originally expected. Why? Because after quote unquote scarring events, these massive bank failures in a deep, deep recession, if we actually start seeing unemployment rise, where people start getting laid off, which we don’t want to see that. [00:13:16][19.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:17] But if that’s what’s coming in the recession, oil prices won’t do well. So, I mean, good for Goldman Sachs to come out and admit it now, unfortunately, still can’t get a job there anymore. So he’s just back on the train with us. But, you know, this is as I mean, this is some of the most coherent analysis I’ve ever seen. So props to them. [00:13:35][17.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:35] You got to love men. You know that that banking scarring is what happened to me after my first marriage. So, you know, I understand that No wonder oil prices are going to be brutalized. Okay, so let’s go to the next one. [00:13:47][11.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:47] So top Biden advisor says U.S. won’t rush to fill the petroleum reserve, huh? Okay. The SPR, the Biden administration devastated the SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve last year in order to get ready for the midterms and manipulate the markets. [00:14:07][20.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:08] And now it was designed to this is a quote out of the article. Shield the country from supply disruptions is currently at 371 billion barrels, the lowest since the 1980s. We have a war. We have a disruption. We are in. Doug do. I mean, the Biden administration pooped on the rug. This is not good. [00:14:35][26.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:35] Now, the quote in here, President Biden still committed to replenishing the SPR after extraordinary draws last year. Really, nothing happens overnight. You have to decide this is the right environment. So therefore, you wait to see where the prices are going to be landing. [00:14:56][20.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:57] I mean, here’s here’s my thought, Stew. If you said you were going to buy at 70, why aren’t you buying now? [00:15:03][6.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:04] Exactly. [00:15:04][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:05] If you want to keep the SPR low? They must somewhat think having low strategic petroleum reserve. Are, good. That’s scary because that shows an insane lack of good judgment. There’s stuff that we reserve. What? [00:15:19][14.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:20] There’s two things. And that is they spent all the money and profit because the cost in the SBIR, I believe, was $26 a barrel. And they sold that to China companies they sold it to. They sold the A. You want. I’m not going to go there. [00:15:37][17.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:38] I wasn’t saying I wasn’t giving you. [00:15:39][1.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:39] I sit your head like you’re about to beat me up again. Dude, I’m just telling you facts. And facts are that they sold them to China. They sold a bunch of it to China, They sold it, They pocketed the money, and the money went into their funds that they can pull money out of now until they go through. That’s why they’re not filling it up right now. It’s because they’ve siphoned the money off. Anyway, my personal opinion. [00:16:09][29.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:10] Was no, I mean, I agree with that analysis, too. So you’re not going to get an argument from me,. [00:16:14][4.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:15] How Fun.All right. So I think we’re coming around the corner to a UBS there. You bet. Ready? [00:16:22][7.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:22] Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, the only, you know, considering the fact that this banking crisis is going to impact oil in a negative way, I think it’s important to cover specifically just what’s going on. So UBS right now is in talks all was in talks all this weekend. [00:16:39][16.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:39] And it just as we started a record this year, about 345 on the 19th, has agreed to by Credit Suisse for about two or $3.2 billion. They’re getting a 4354 excuse me, a $54 billion, quote unquote loan from the Swiss National Bank, which will be able to help finance the rest of it. [00:17:00][21.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:01] You know, the Swiss Well, they’ve well, they’ve really it’s actually 100 billion CHF or 108.8 billion. I mean, as far this is to say, the the the whole premise was too big to fail is out the window because we were also now seeing we saw this this weekend that midsize banks are asking the FDIC to insure all unsecured deposits for two years. [00:17:21][20.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:22] Right. [00:17:22][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:22] The unraveling is here. I’m not saying there’s a if there’s a bank run that happens tomorrow, people. I’m sorry and I’ll be on the streets with you because I’m just I’m in Bank of America. So hopefully they’re good. That’s it. I’m oh, we’re all we’re all in on Bank of America here in the Taylor household, so fingers crossed but if there’s a bank run, I’m in trouble. So we hope you are, too. Yeah, I don’t have any. I don’t have any. I’m going to start. I’m going to I told Stu if there is a bank run that starts tomorrow and anarchy sets in, I’m heading up north to find you and I. [00:17:52][30.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:53] Hey, you got a cot here? [00:17:54][1.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:55] I’m not drama. I just got gas today. I’m no kidding. I got gas today kind of thinking like, if. If tomorrow comes around, I can at least get up to Stu on that full tank. [00:18:04][9.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:05] There you go. [00:18:05][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:06] What are your thoughts on all this? [00:18:07][0.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:09] I knew last year when I said there was a great awakening coming up and I before you throw up and I. I found where I said it and the Great Awakening is going on and I also thought that we were going to have a recession. I always thought we were in a recession in last December. And the world is coming around to some of the toughest times it’s ever seen. And it’s because of printing money but global printing of money is the the payment is now coming due and this is only the first part. [00:18:43][34.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:44] Yep. No, I mean, you’re we probably are in a global recession or we’re coming up to one and it’s the outlook does look pretty slow. Goldman Sachs, we appreciate you coming out with some finally some some some coherent analysis. Anything else? [00:18:58][13.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:58] I think we’re going to have a good light at the end of the tunnel and it’s not a train. So I think that we will come around out of this. [00:19:06][7.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:06] Okay. Okay. Anything else? [00:19:09][2.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:10] I’m good. We are going to have a very interesting week. There’s some things coming around the corner. We’ll talk about it tomorrow. [00:19:16][5.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:17] Now we will. You know, oil and gas markets are closed, were trading at 66. Are the market closed at 66, 53, $2.35 for natural gas. Again, as these as prices go or as these banks go so oil prices go so don’t let anybody fool you about China demand that’s my only thing this week. [00:19:34][17.2]

[00:19:34] If we buy China demand, hopefully everybody has cash when they wake up tomorrow as you listen to this. If you are struggling and there is no cash and you’re at King Soopers listening to this, don’t punch the person next to you just slightly take the bread and run. Just don’t punch the person. Next, We don’t need to descend into peer to peer comment just take the bread and run. [00:19:56][21.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:56] Oh, my goodness. [00:19:57][0.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:59] So. [00:19:59][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:00] This show is sponsored by [00:20:01][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:02] Kroger. Anybody anything else? Do we let these guys go? I think we’re good. [00:20:09][6.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:09] Were going to have a wild and crazy newsweek. [00:20:11][1.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:12] Nice guys. Well, on that fun note, we’ll let you get out of here Thanks for checking us out. Energy podcast for Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. Stay safe out there. [00:20:12][0.0]