Site icon Energy News Beat

Dropping Oil Price Boosts Odds of Ukraine Peace Deal, Trump Says

Clark Savage

President Trump and President Putin talking created by Grok on X

ENB Pub Note: President Trump’s team still does not understand what motivates President Putin to end the war. In the following article from Bloomberg, President Trump oddly says that low oil prices will bring President Putin to the table. I disagree; he has made money at lower than market rates for years.  He trades in Rubles and not the U.S. Dollar, which helps him out immeasurably. Putin is also prosecuting the war against the City of London and the City of Paris, and not President Trump. 

President Putin has publicly stated he wants to do business with the United States and end business with the EU and the UK.  That includes Arctic oil and gas as well as critical minerals. They have tried to bankrupt Russia, but they were able to survive selling oil and gas below market rates and growing exports through the use of their Shadow Fleet to China and India. Check out the section from George McMillon’s contribution page on Energy News Beat here.https://energynewsbeat.co/george-mcmillian/

Russia’s exports of oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and critical minerals in recent years have been significant, driven by its position as a major global energy supplier. Below is a detailed breakdown based on available data, focusing on trends from 2021 to 2025, with emphasis on volumes, revenues, and key markets. All monetary values are approximate and based on reports from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and other sources. Note that critical minerals data is less comprehensive due to limited public reporting.
1. Crude Oil Exports
Russia is one of the world’s top crude oil exporters, with production and exports remaining relatively stable despite Western sanctions following the 2022 Ukraine invasion. The shift in markets from Europe to Asia (primarily China and India) has been a key trend.
Trend: Russia maintained stable oil exports by redirecting to Asia, offsetting EU bans. Revenues fluctuated with Urals prices (e.g., $67.93/barrel in June 2024, $70.2/barrel in January 2025).
2. Oil Products Exports
Oil products (diesel, gasoil, fuel oil, etc.) are a major export, with Russia processing ~5.6 million bpd of crude in 2021 and exporting half.
Trend: EU sanctions (February 2023) reduced Europe’s share, with Turkey emerging as a key hub, possibly re-exporting to the EU.
3. Natural Gas (Pipeline) Exports
Russia is the world’s second-largest natural gas producer, with exports heavily reliant on pipelines to Europe and, increasingly, China.
Trend: Pipeline exports to Europe plummeted post-2022, with Russia unable to fully redirect to Asia due to infrastructure limits. China’s role grows via Power of Siberia.
4. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exports
Russia’s LNG exports have grown, targeting markets inaccessible by pipeline, despite sanctions limiting technology access.
Trend: LNG exports to the EU surged (record 2024 levels), driven by discounted prices and no sanctions. Russia aims for 142 bcm by 2030.
5. Critical Minerals Exports
Data on critical minerals (palladium, nickel, aluminum, copper, etc.) is sparse, as Russia’s exports are less transparent and often aggregated under “metals.” Russia is a major supplier, particularly for palladium and nickel.
Trend: Sanctions redirected critical minerals to Asia, but lack of granular data limits precision. Russia’s role in palladium (essential for catalytic converters) remains critical.
Summary (Approximate Annual Revenues, 2021–2024)
Year
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Pipeline Gas
LNG
Critical Minerals
Total (Oil/Gas/Minerals)
2021
~$100B
~$50B
~$45B
~$10B
~$50B
~$255B
2022
~$120B
~$50B
~$30B
~$10B
~$50B
~$260B
2023
~$110B
~$45B
~$25B
~$10B
~$50B
~$240B
2024
~$115B
~$40B
~$20B
~$12B
~$50B
~$237B
Notes:
Key Observations
  1. Oil Dominance: Crude oil and products remain Russia’s largest export revenue source, with China and India absorbing most volumes post-2022.
  2. Gas Challenges: Pipeline gas exports to Europe collapsed after Nord Stream sabotage and Ukraine transit halt, but LNG exports hit record highs in 2024 due to EU demand.
  3. Critical Minerals: Limited data, but Russia’s palladium and nickel exports likely shifted to Asia, maintaining global relevance.
  4. Sanctions Impact: Redirected trade to Asia mitigated revenue losses, though enforcement gaps (e.g., shadow tankers, EU LNG imports) sustain Russia’s earnings.
Sources

From Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump said the sliding price of oil is intensifying pressure on Russia and boosting the odds for a deal to end its war in Ukraine.

“I think Russia, with the price of oil right now — oil has gone down — I think we’re in a good position to settle,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “They want to settle; Ukraine wants to settle. If I weren’t president, nobody would be settling.”

West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was trading around $57.21 Monday afternoon, down roughly 27% since Trump took office in January. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ weekend decision to pump more crude — even with demand expected to fall amid Trump’s trade war — has pushed prices lower.

Trump has repeatedly prodded the OPEC cartel to boost output and lower prices, arguing it would starve Russia of revenue and help bring an end to the war. Administration officials have also raised the prospect of more sanctions and other tools to intensify economic pressure on Russia, as peace talks drag on.

The president’s comments come a week ahead of his planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It also coincides with efforts by the European Union to curb Russia’s energy might with a planned proposal to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, Bloomberg reported.

Exit mobile version