In a bold move to avert a transatlantic trade war, the European Union (EU) and the United States, under President Donald Trump, announced a historic agreement on July 27, 2025. The deal, struck during talks in Scotland between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes a 15% tariff on most EU goods entering the U.S.—a reduction from the threatened 30%—along with EU commitments to invest $600 billion in U.S. infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing. Central to the pact is the EU’s pledge to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years, averaging $250 billion annually. This encompasses liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, nuclear fuel, and technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs).
While the announcement sent oil prices climbing—Brent crude rose 2-3% to around $75 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $70—the feasibility of scaling U.S. energy exports to meet this ambitious target remains questionable, with experts highlighting significant supply, demand, and regulatory hurdles.
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The deal positions the U.S. as a key ally in Europe’s ongoing efforts to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, a shift accelerated by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic expressed optimism, stating, “We believe these numbers are achievable,” and emphasizing a “nuclear renaissance” in Europe.
However, analysts like Davide Oneglia from TS Lombard have called the figures “meaningless” and “unachievable,” pointing to constraints on both sides of the Atlantic.
As we delve into U.S. energy export capabilities, existing contracts, and available capacity, it becomes clear that while the U.S. has ramped up shipments to Europe in recent years, adding another $750 billion in exports faces steep uphill roads.
Current U.S. Energy Export Capabilities to the EU
In 2024, US energy exports amounted to $330 billion. $80 billion of went to the EU
Now, the EU has agreed to purchase $250 billion in energy ANNUALLY from the US
Where is this going to come from? Or is it just numbers on a page?https://t.co/7pGCLS66Pk
— Ellen R. Wald Ph.D.🛢 (@EnergzdEconomy) July 28, 2025
The U.S. has emerged as a dominant energy exporter globally, particularly in LNG and crude oil, thanks to the shale boom and infrastructure expansions. In 2024, total U.S. energy exports exceeded $330 billion, but shipments specifically to the EU’s 27 member states—covering crude, refined products, LNG, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—totaled just $74.3 billion.
This represents a significant increase from pre-2022 levels, driven by Europe’s pivot from Russian supplies, but it’s still far short of the $250 billion annual target.LNG Exports: The U.S. is the world’s top LNG exporter, with Europe accounting for a major share. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. supplied 50.7% of the EU’s LNG imports, surpassing Russia (17.0%) and Qatar.
U.S. LNG exports hit a record 8.5 million metric tons (MT) in December 2024, with annual totals up 4.5% from the prior year. Exports are projected to rise another 15% in 2025, supported by new capacity additions.
Currently, eight operational LNG terminals provide a combined export capacity of 14.43 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
Expansions, including the Plaquemines LNG terminal, which shipped its first cargo in late 2024, are expected to boost nominal capacity to 21.2 Bcf/d (peak 25.2 Bcf/d) by 2028, with about 2 Bcf/d added in 2025 alone.
Crude Oil and Refined Products: U.S. crude exports to Europe have surged, reaching over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) at peaks since the Ukraine conflict, comprising about half of total U.S. crude exports.
In the first half of 2025, EU imports from the U.S. averaged 1.53 million bpd, with 86% as crude.
U.S. crude production is forecast to average 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and 2026, providing ample supply, but export infrastructure and global demand dynamics limit rapid scaling.
Nuclear and Other: The deal includes nuclear fuel and SMRs, but these are nascent. SMRs are not expected to be commercially viable before 2030, limiting near-term contributions.
Known Contracts and Existing Trade Flows
While the new agreement is described as a non-binding political pledge rather than enforceable contracts, it builds on a foundation of growing U.S.-EU energy ties. Since 2022, Europe has signed numerous long-term LNG supply agreements with U.S. producers, though specific details on volumes and values for 2025 are often proprietary. Key highlights include:LNG Contracts: Major U.S. firms like Cheniere Energy and Venture Global have secured deals with European buyers, contributing to the 2024 U.S. LNG exports to the EU valued at around $13 billion.
Analysts anticipate a 30-40% increase in U.S. LNG flows to Europe over the next 18 months under the new deal, potentially tightening global supplies.
Projects like Port Arthur LNG Phase II, authorized in May 2025, aim to export 1.91 Bcf/d once operational.
Oil Contracts: EU imports of U.S. crude are largely spot-market driven, with no major long-term contracts publicly detailed for 2025. However, flows have stabilized at high levels, with the U.S. as Europe’s top non-Russian supplier.
Overall: The EU’s energy imports from the U.S. are projected to remain market-dependent, influenced by global prices and geopolitics. For instance, 2025 LNG destinations will hinge on European and Asian pricing dynamics.
Leftover Capacity and the Path to $750 Billion
To assess the feasibility of adding $750 billion in exports ($250 billion/year), consider current capacities and required volumes. Assuming an average price of $70 per barrel equivalent for a mix of oil and gas (based on 2025 estimates, with Brent at ~$75 and LNG spot prices varying), the deal would require roughly 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) over three years—or about 3.26 million bpd additional exports annually.
This is a massive leap from the current ~1.53 million bpd in oil and equivalent LNG volumes.
Anas Alhajji on X has posted several key points in his subscription account. “Ultimately, the EU cannot buy what it promised, and the US cannot supply what was agreed upon”. I have inlcluded the link to his account, and recommend following him.
This is great news, and the faster we can get projects approved, the better off everyone will be as we strive to achieve Energy Dominance.
So, math does matter; stay in school, kids. Homeschooling is a recommended option.
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