Global Carbon Emissions Reach Record High Despite Green Efforts

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To quantify this, here’s a breakdown of cumulative global investment in wind, solar, and hydrogen from 2015 to 2025 (in billions USD, based on IEA and BloombergNEF data):

• Wind: ~$1,200 billion
• Solar PV: ~$1,800 billion
• Hydrogen (low-emission): ~$100 billion
• Total: ~$3,100 billion

These figures reflect a monumental financial commitment, driven by policies like the Paris Agreement and net-zero pledges. China leads the pack, accounting for nearly a third of global clean energy spending, followed by advanced economies like the U.S. and Europe. But what has this investment achieved in terms of reducing fossil fuel use?Fossil Fuel Reduction: A Mixed BagThe promise of renewables is simple: displace coal, oil, and natural gas to slash emissions. Yet, the data paints a complex picture. According to the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, fossil fuels still accounted for ~80% of global primary energy consumption in 2024, down only slightly from 82% in 2015. Here’s how wind, solar, and hydrogen have impacted each fossil fuel:

• Coal: Coal consumption has declined modestly in advanced economies, driven by wind and solar growth. In the U.S., coal’s share of electricity generation dropped from 33% in 2015 to 16% in 2024, partly due to renewables and cheap natural gas. Globally, however, coal use grew, with China and India increasing consumption to meet rising energy demand. The IEA estimates that wind and solar avoided ~1.5 billion metric tons of coal-related CO2 emissions annually by 2024, but this was offset by coal’s growth in Asia, where it remains the largest source of power generation.
• Oil: Oil demand has proven resilient, particularly in transportation and industry. Electric vehicles (EVs), powered partly by wind and solar, have reduced oil consumption marginally. The IEA notes that EVs displaced ~0.5 million barrels per day of oil demand in 2024—less than 1% of global oil consumption. Hydrogen, touted as a future fuel for heavy transport, has had negligible impact, with less than 0.1% of global oil demand displaced by hydrogen-based fuels.
• Natural Gas: Natural gas has been the biggest winner, growing 2.5% globally in 2024, per the Statistical Review. In the U.S., the shale gas boom since 2007 has displaced coal, but renewables have struggled to compete with gas’s reliability and low cost. Wind and solar have reduced gas demand in some power sectors, but globally, gas consumption rose to meet electricity and industrial needs, especially in developing nations.

In total, wind and solar contributed to a 14.6% share of global energy consumption in 2023, up from 8.7% in 2015. However, fossil fuel consumption also grew to meet a 2% annual rise in total energy demand, reaching 592 exajoules in 2024. The result? Global CO2 emissions rose from 35.7 billion metric tons in 2015 to 40.8 billion in 2024—a 14% increase.Turley’s Law: More Green Spending, More Fossil Fuels?The concept of “Turley’s Law”—the idea that increased spending on wind, solar, and hydrogen leads to more fossil fuel use—has gained traction among energy skeptics. While not formally defined in academic literature, it reflects a critique of green policies: heavy subsidies and investments in renewables often fail to address the structural realities of energy demand and grid reliability, inadvertently entrenching fossil fuels.The data offers some support for this view. Despite $3.1 trillion invested in wind, solar, and hydrogen, fossil fuels met 60% of the global energy demand growth in 2024. China, the world’s leader in renewable deployment, emitted 12.5 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2024—31% of the global total—while remaining the largest coal consumer. As OilPrice.com notes, “We’re adding clean energy to the mix, but we’re not yet subtracting fossil energy.” This paradox is driven by:

1. Energy Demand Growth: Developing nations like China and India are expanding infrastructure and industrial output, driving demand for reliable, cheap energy—often coal and gas.
2. Intermittency Challenges: Wind and solar depend on weather, requiring fossil fuel backups (usually gas or coal) to ensure grid stability.
3. Policy Missteps: Subsidies for renewables often coexist with fossil fuel subsidies, which the IEA estimates at $1 trillion globally in 2024, distorting markets.

However, Turley’s Law oversimplifies the issue. Renewables have displaced some fossil fuel use, particularly coal in the U.S. and Europe, and the IEA projects that global fossil fuel demand could peak by 2030 under current policies. The problem is scale: renewables are growing fast (wind and solar expanded 16% in 2024, nine times faster than total energy demand), but not fast enough to outpace overall energy consumption.

Take a look at the chart prepared by Wasif Latif, Sarmaya Partners, and it can help show that with the trillions spent on wind, solar, and other renewables, there has been barely a dent in the fossil fuel use.

Examining whether CO2 is classified as a plant food or a pollutant is a topic that the Trump Administration is about to address, and this could change how the United States approaches various issues. The second-order effect would be that the United States moves away from CCUS, or carbon credits. The delivery of energy with the least environmental impact is critical, and defining what constitutes real pollution will be the first step. For example, coal can be made cleaner through the use of technology, while keeping costs down. Additionally, refineries are on the verge of adopting new membrane technology, which will enable them to lower costs and reduce energy consumption in the production of diesel and gasoline. New technologies will render Turley’s law obsolete. Still, until wind turbines and solar panels can be manufactured without enormous amounts of fossil fuels, we will continue to use more fossil fuels and add to the energy production. There is no energy transition; we are in an energy addition until the new technology is made available for mass production.

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Below is a summary of the data for a chart showing global investment in wind, solar, and hydrogen (2015–2025) alongside global CO2 emissions.
Sample Data (approximated based on IEA, BloombergNEF, and Statistical Review):

Notes:

• Investment figures are rounded estimates based on IEA’s World Energy Investment reports and BloombergNEF trends.
• CO2 emissions are sourced from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy (2024) and IEA reports (2015–2023), with 2025 estimated

Sources

• OilPrice.com: “Global Carbon Emissions Reach Record High Despite Green Efforts”
• Energy News Beat: “California’s Net-Zero Emissions Plan Is a National Security Risk for America”
• International Energy Agency: World Energy Investment 2025, Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions 2021–2023
• Energy Institute: 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy
• BloombergNEF: Renewable Energy Investment Trends

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