India Raises Alarm Over U.S. 500% Tariff Plan on Russian Oil: A Ripple Effect Threatening California and U.S. National Security

India’s reliance on Russian oil has skyrocketed since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Russian crude now comprising 40-44% of its total imports, up from less than 1% pre-conflict. In May 2025, India imported 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, with June estimates reaching a two-year high of 2-2.2 million bpd. This shift, driven by discounted prices amid Western sanctions, has allowed Indian refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy to secure cheap crude, stabilizing domestic fuel costs.

The ripple effects of this tariff could hit California particularly hard, where an already strained refining sector is grappling with overregulation and closures. As detailed in a recent Energy News Beat article, California’s aggressive environmental policies have pushed refineries to the brink, with closures threatening the state’s fuel supply. The state’s gasoline prices, already among the highest in the U.S., could surge further if global oil markets tighten due to India’s reduced access to Russian crude.

California relies heavily on imported oil to meet its energy demands, and any disruption in global supply chains—such as India diverting its oil purchases to other markets—could exacerbate shortages. The state’s refineries, already operating at reduced capacity due to regulatory pressures, are ill-equipped to handle a sudden spike in crude prices or supply constraints. This could lead to fuel rationing, higher transportation costs, and economic strain for consumers and businesses alike.

Beyond California, the proposed tariffs pose a broader national security risk for the U.S. Energy independence has been a cornerstone of U.S. policy, but reliance on stable global oil markets remains critical. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that disruptions in key oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, have historically spiked prices and strained domestic supplies. If India and China, major players in global oil demand, are forced to seek alternative suppliers due to U.S. tariffs, it could destabilize markets and drive up prices worldwide.

Moreover, the tariffs could strain U.S.-India relations, a critical partnership for countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. India’s potential shift to Iranian or other non-Russian oil sources could complicate U.S. sanctions enforcement and embolden adversarial suppliers. This realignment risks creating a fragmented global energy market, where the U.S. loses leverage over key allies and adversaries alike.

The U.S. faces a delicate balancing act. While the tariff aims to pressure Russia, it risks alienating allies like India and destabilizing global oil markets. For California, already teetering on the edge of an energy crisis, the consequences could be dire. Higher fuel prices and supply shortages would hit consumers and industries, while the state’s green energy transition—already under scrutiny—could face further delays.

Nationally, the U.S. must weigh the strategic costs of this policy. Energy security is national security, and any move that disrupts global oil flows could undermine America’s economic stability and geopolitical influence. As India raises the alarm, the U.S. would be wise to consider alternative measures—such as targeted sanctions or diplomatic pressure—that achieve the same goals without igniting a broader energy crisis.

The Necons, like Lyndsy Graham, need to sit this one out, as President Trump is in control. As George McMillan has said on my podcast, “All Putin has to do is nothing,” and he will win, is spot on. Putin is bankrupting the Bank of London and the Bank of Paris, which is a help to the United States as we go through the following transitions.

And all President Trump needs to do is secure business deals to work on with President Putin, such as the Arctic oil projects, and collaborate to address business issues with the new trading blocs. The new Trading Blocs of the United States, Russia, Vietnam, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Italy, the UAE, Qatar, and a few others are expected to surpass the economies of the EU and the UK.  As all countries following the Net Zero path of deindustrialization and financial collapse eventually do, there will be a new G7 comprising different countries.