As the global economy hurtles to a recession, experts are noting India is unusually well positioned to avoid being plunged into similar economic straits, due to the nations’ decoupling from the broader global economy, according to ratings agency S&P.
Paul Gruenwald, S&P’s global chief economist and managing director, noted to reporters, “[The] Indian economy is decoupled from the global economy… even though you [India] are a net importer of energy. But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets.” He added however that a lot will be dependent on how global fund flows behave, if the US and Europe plunge into recessions, as seems likely.
The world bank warned last week that the world my be getting set up for a “devastating” global recession next year due to interest rate hikes by central banks. The World Bank added that we are in the steepest economic decline since the 1970’s.
Central banks across the world have been on an extended streak of interest rate increases, as they attempt to grapple with persistent inflationary pressures in the economic environment. The consumer price index has come in at 40 year highs in the UK and US in recent months, driven in large part by high energy prices produced by the geopolitical struggle over Ukraine.
Inflation in India came in at 7% year over year in August, lower in the US, UK, and Eurozone. Even despite the nation’s central bank having enacted three interest rate hikes, the nation is still in better economic condition that the rest of the world. Analysts expect the economy will grow at a rate of 7.3% this year, and at only a slightly slower rate of 6.5% next fiscal year, according to Crisil Ratings, the Indian rating agency.
India has benefited from not joining in the sanctions imposed upon Russia by the Western powers, as it has allowed the nation to buy cheaper discounted Russian crude oil and coal, to power its own nation. It has even refined the discounted crude, selling it at a premium on the world market.
The trade between New Delhi and Moscow has more than doubled this year. Currently the nations are working on bilateral measures allowing them to bypass the US dollar, and trade directly, using their own national currencies.
The Daily Financial Trends
