In the ever-evolving landscape of global energy markets, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to navigate a delicate balance between securing greater market share and sustaining elevated oil prices. As of mid-2025, OPEC’s strategy appears firmly rooted in a “long game” approach, where the cartel unwinds production cuts to reclaim lost ground while leveraging external geopolitical factors—such as sanctions on rival producers—to support price stability. This strategy is particularly aimed at pressuring higher-cost competitors like U.S. shale, allowing OPEC to capitalize on resilient global oil demand without triggering a supply glut.
With no peak in oil demand foreseen in the near term, according to OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais, the group is positioning itself to meet growing needs from a rising global population.
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OPEC’s moves come amid a backdrop of increasing production from non-OPEC sources, but the cartel’s calculated increases—coupled with disruptions elsewhere—could help it regain dominance. This article explores OPEC’s top members’ production outlook for 2025, their efforts to buoy prices, and how recent EU sanctions and potential secondary sanctions under President Trump align with the group’s long-term objectives.OPEC Top Members’ Oil Production Outlook for 2025OPEC’s core members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Kuwait—remain the backbone of the cartel’s output, accounting for the majority of its production capacity. As of June 2025, preliminary data shows Saudi Arabia leading with 9.30 million barrels per day (mb/d), followed by Iraq at 4.35 mb/d, Iran at 3.20 mb/d, and the UAE contributing significantly to recent hikes.
Overall OPEC crude production rose by 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) in June, driven primarily by increases from Saudi Arabia (+173,000 b/d) and the UAE (+83,000 b/d).
Specifically, eight OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and others—have agreed to boost production by 548,000 b/d in August 2025 alone, exceeding initial expectations and signaling a faster unwind of 2022 cuts.
This move addresses overproduction by some members and aims to restore group cohesion.
Country-specific forecasts for 2025 suggest:
- Saudi Arabia: Expected to average around 9.5-10 mb/d, building on its voluntary cuts being phased out, with capacity to surge if needed to defend market share.
- Iraq: Projected at 4.4-4.6 mb/d, incorporating compliance adjustments amid ongoing overproduction issues.
- UAE: Anticipated to reach 3.2-3.5 mb/d, leveraging recent investments in capacity expansion.
- Iran: Forecasted at 3.2-3.4 mb/d, constrained by existing sanctions but resilient through shadow exports.
- Kuwait: Expected to hover at 2.5-2.7 mb/d, participating in the August hike.
These increases are part of a broader plan to return approximately 2.2 mb/d to the market gradually, but OPEC’s share of global production is expected to dip slightly to 46% in 2025 from higher levels in previous years, as non-OPEC supply grows.
Demand growth, however, is sluggish at just 700,000 b/d—the lowest since 2009 outside of the COVID era—potentially capping upside risks.
Strategies to Keep Oil Prices Elevated
Despite ramping up production, OPEC is employing a multifaceted strategy to prevent price collapses. Historically, the cartel has coordinated supply cuts during low-price periods to tighten markets, as seen in the 2022 agreements.
In 2025, with Brent crude holding above $80 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, OPEC is shifting toward measured increases to avoid oversupply while targeting competitors.
Key tactics include:
- Phased Output Adjustments: The August hike of 548,000 b/d is designed to be “orderly,” preventing a flood of oil that could tank prices.
This follows a pattern where OPEC withholds spare capacity—currently low—to limit responses to demand spikes, thereby supporting higher prices.
- Alliance Management with OPEC+: Including Russia, the group focuses on compliance and fairness, addressing overproduction to maintain unity and price discipline.
- Capitalizing on External Factors: Declining non-OPEC discoveries (averaging 2.5 billion barrels annually since 2020) and events like Canadian wildfires or U.S.-China trade tensions help buoy prices without OPEC intervention.
- Long-Term Market Dominance: By squeezing U.S. shale through sustained lower prices when needed, OPEC aims to slow rival growth, as evidenced by recent slowdowns in U.S. drilling.
These efforts have kept prices resilient, with recent rises attributed more to sanctions and tariffs than supply changes.
The Role of EU Sanctions and Trump Secondary Sanctions in OPEC’s Long-Term Goals
OPEC’s long-term ambitions—regaining market share, ensuring price stability, and outlasting competitors—could be significantly bolstered by the latest Western sanctions on Russia, a key OPEC+ ally. The EU’s 18th sanctions package, implemented in July 2025, lowers the price cap on Russian crude from $60 to $47.60 per barrel, introduces a dynamic review mechanism, and targets the “shadow fleet” with bans on 100 additional vessels.
While intended to slash Russian revenues, the cap’s effectiveness is questionable, as Russia trades much of its oil above the limit via non-Western channels to buyers like India and China.
President Trump’s threats of 100% secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil exceeding the cap add another layer, potentially disrupting 1.5-2 mb/d of supply and pushing Brent to $90-100 per barrel by mid-2025.
India, which sources 35-40% of its crude from Russia at steep discounts, could face higher costs if forced to switch to alternatives like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, tightening global supplies and refining outputs.
For OPEC, these measures play into the “long game” by indirectly reducing competitive supply from Russia, which exports over 10 mb/
Potential revenue losses for Russia ($10-20 billion) could weaken its OPEC+ role, allowing core OPEC members to fill gaps and capture more market share.
Higher prices from volatility would support OPEC’s goals without necessitating cuts, while enforcement challenges—such as shadow fleets—might prolong disruptions, benefiting the cartel.
However, risks include global inflation and a push toward renewables, though short-term fossil fuel dependence remains strong.
In summary, OPEC’s pursuit of market share through strategic production hikes aligns seamlessly with external pressures like sanctions, which could elevate prices and sideline rivals. As Trump-era policies unfold, the cartel’s resilience in this multipolar energy world will be tested, but its long-game mindset positions it well for sustained dominance.
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