In the ever-volatile world of global energy markets, OPEC+ finds itself once again in the spotlight following fresh leaks from Reuters about its upcoming production strategy. As oil prices hover around multi-month lows amid economic uncertainties and rising non-OPEC supply, the cartel’s internal debates have spilled into the public domain, raising questions about its ability to manage output effectively. Sources close to the discussions revealed that OPEC+ is gearing up for another production hike in November, with key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia haggling over the scale—potentially ranging from 274,000 to 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), or even a more modest 137,000 bpd to start.
This comes on the heels of a September increase that pushed OPEC output higher, though the group has historically underdelivered on promised boosts, achieving only about 75% of targeted volumes in recent months.
The leaks, which surfaced just ahead of an October 5 ministerial meeting, underscore the cartel’s push to unwind voluntary cuts implemented since late 2022 to prop up prices during demand slumps. Eight core members—Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—are at the heart of these plans, aiming to gradually return withheld barrels to the market through 2026.
However, the proposed November ramp-up, which could triple October’s 137,000 bpd addition, signals an acceleration amid concerns over oversupply and softening demand from major importers like the U.S. and China.
Traders are bracing for impact, with Brent crude dipping to 16-week lows in recent sessions as speculation mounts.
Can OPEC+ Deliver on These Ambitious Increases?
OPEC+’s production capabilities remain a mixed bag, with the group’s spare capacity estimated at over 3 million bpd currently, though projections show it dwindling to around 2 million bpd by September 2026 as cuts are phased out.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts OPEC+ adding about 1.3 million bpd in 2025, matching growth from non-OPEC producers like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
Yet, analysts warn that the cartel may struggle to fully realize these hikes, given past shortfalls and the concentration of spare capacity in just a few hands.
The bulk of this idle potential—more than 3 million bpd—lies with Saudi Arabia (around 2 million bpd), the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, allowing these nations to act as swing producers in times of need.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, could maintain about 2.2 million bpd of spare after initial increases, providing a buffer against disruptions.
On X (formerly Twitter), energy watchers echo this, noting that only these four countries hold meaningful spare, with the rest of OPEC+ nearing full tilt.
By mid-2026, some experts predict the group could be left with virtually no spare capacity if unwind plans proceed unchecked, potentially tightening markets and boosting prices.
|
Country
|
Estimated Spare Capacity (mb/d)
|
Notes
|
|---|---|---|
|
Saudi Arabia
|
~2.0
|
Primary swing producer; could add significantly but faces budget pressures.
|
|
UAE
|
~0.5-1.0
|
Strong infrastructure; reliable increaser.
|
|
Kuwait
|
~0.3-0.5
|
Limited but viable; part of core unwind group.
|
|
Iraq
|
~0.3-0.5
|
Overproduction history; spare exists but compliance issues persist.
|
|
Others (e.g., Russia, Kazakhstan)
|
Minimal
|
Often at or above quotas; little room to grow without investment.
|
This table highlights the uneven distribution, with non-OPEC+ growth expected to outpace the cartel’s in 2026 at 1 million bpd
Financial Strains Fueling Overproduction
Beneath the surface, fiscal woes in several OPEC+ nations are driving non-compliance, with overproduction becoming a survival tactic. Countries like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have consistently exceeded quotas since January 2024, prompting OPEC+ to demand compensation cuts totaling millions of bpd through 2026.
Iraq, grappling with reconstruction costs and political instability, leads the overproducers, followed by Kazakhstan, which faces budget shortfalls amid commodity price volatility. Russia’s war-related expenditures have pushed it to pump above targets, despite pledges to compensate.
Even Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s anchor, is running a significant budget deficit, yet it continues to advocate for hikes to regain market share—potentially at the expense of lower prices.
These financial pressures highlight a core tension: while the group aims for unity, individual economic imperatives often lead to quota breaches, undermining collective discipline.
As one analyst noted, “Some members struggle to raise output, while others face curbs because of previous overproduction,” creating a vicious cycle
Is OPEC+ Still Viable as a Cartel—and Should It Persist?
OPEC+’s role as a price-stabilizing cartel is increasingly under scrutiny in a world where U.S. shale and other non-OPEC supplies dominate growth. Critics argue that persistent non-compliance, like the overproduction saga, erodes its credibility, turning it into a loose alliance rather than a tight-knit group.
With oil demand projected to grow without peaking before 2050, OPEC+ insists on its relevance, navigating uncertainties like geopolitical tensions and energy transitions.
Yet, the cartel’s strategy of flooding markets to squeeze out competitors—evident in recent “price wars”—has backfired at times, leading to volatility.
Proponents say it should continue, as coordinated cuts have prevented deeper crashes and supported member economies amid rising U.S. independence
Without it, prices could swing wildly, benefiting no one. However, as spare capacity thins and internal rifts widen, OPEC+ may need reforms to survive—perhaps focusing on long-term demand forecasts and stricter enforcement.As the October meeting looms, the leaks serve as a reminder: in oil markets, plans are fluid, and surprises are the norm. Stay tuned to Energy News Beat for updates on how this unfolds.
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