In the world of energy markets, where headlines often scream about impending gluts and oversupply, OPEC’s latest outlook is turning heads for all the wrong reasons—at least from the perspective of those expecting a flood of cheap oil. Much like the iconic 1984 Wendy’s commercial that famously asked, “Where’s the Beef?”, we’re left pondering: Where’s the Glut? Despite OPEC+ members ramping up production and non-OPEC supply surging, the cartel is doubling down on its view of a tight oil market, projecting substantial supply deficits for 2025 and 2026.
This bullish stance comes even as global inventories build and other forecasters paint a picture of growing surpluses. For investors, it is good news as there seems to be strong demand, and not an oversupply pricing issue.
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OPEC’s Bullish Projections Amid Production Revival
OPEC’s September 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, released today, reinforces the organization’s long-standing optimism on global oil demand. The group forecasts world oil consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, a robust pace that outstrips many rivals’ estimates. Looking ahead, demand for OPEC+ crude is expected to average 43.1 million bpd in 2026, signaling sustained tightness in the market for the alliance’s output.
This comes against the backdrop of OPEC+ gradually unwinding production cuts. In August 2025, the group’s production averaged 42.4 million bpd, up from previous restrained levels as key members like Saudi Arabia and Russia revive output. OPEC now anticipates needing to supply 43.45 million bpd in the second half of 2025 to meet demand, implying a need for further increases. These steps are part of a broader strategy to balance the market, but OPEC’s secretariat argues they won’t be enough to avert deficits. The report highlights a “substantial supply deficit” persisting into next year, driven by strong economic growth and recovering demand in major consuming regions like Asia and the West.OPEC attributes this resilience to a “robust” global economy, with growth extending into the second half of 2025. Non-OPEC supply, particularly from the U.S. shale sector, is expected to grow, but not fast enough to offset the demand surge in OPEC’s view. The organization points to healthy inventory draws in key markets as evidence of underlying tightness, even as some stockpiles have ticked higher recently.
Supply Increases: A Controlled Thaw, Not a Flood
OPEC+ has been methodical in its production hikes. After deep cuts totaling around 5.8 million bpd were implemented since late 2022 to support prices, the group began reversing some in mid-2024. Recent decisions, including a hike announced for September, aim to add hundreds of thousands of bpd monthly. For instance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that these moves will contribute to global supply rising by 2.7 million bpd in 2025 overall. Yet, OPEC counters that such increases are calibrated to match demand growth, preventing any real glut from materializing.
Critics, however, see these additions as a sign of caution. With Brent crude hovering around $70 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, OPEC+ appears wary of overshooting and crashing prices. The result? A market that’s adding supply but still grappling with perceptions of scarcity, at least in Riyadh’s forecasting models.
New Data on Oil Demand: Bullish OPEC vs. Skeptical Peers
OPEC’s demand outlook isn’t new—it’s been consistently more upbeat than peers for years. The 1.3 million bpd growth projection for 2025 marks a 40% acceleration from earlier estimates, fueled by expectations of a stronger-than-expected recovery in China and emerging markets. But this optimism has drawn skepticism. OPEC’s forecasts have proved excessively bullish in recent years, often overestimating demand by wide margins as electric vehicle adoption and efficiency gains bite harder than anticipated.
Enter the International Energy Agency and Goldman Sachs, whose views clash sharply with OPEC’s. The IEA’s August 2025 Oil Market Report projects global demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, reaching 104.4 million bpd overall. This implies a higher surplus, with inventories building as non-OPEC supply—led by the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana—outpaces consumption. The IEA even raised its 2025 demand forecast slightly to 740,000 bpd in a recent update, but that’s still well below OPEC’s figure.
Goldman Sachs echoes this caution, forecasting demand up only 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, while expecting a widening surplus of 1.8 million bpd by late 2025 through 2026. The investment bank has slashed its Brent price targets, predicting averages below $60 per barrel in Q4 2025 and dipping to the low $50s by late 2026, citing ample supply and softer demand from economic headwinds.
|
Forecaster
|
2025 Demand Growth (mbpd)
|
2026 Demand Growth (mbpd)
|
Market Outlook
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
OPEC
|
1.3
|
~1.3 (implied)
|
Supply Deficit
|
|
IEA
|
0.68 – 0.74
|
0.7
|
Growing Surplus
|
|
Goldman Sachs
|
0.6
|
1.0
|
Widening Surplus (1.8 mbpd)
|
This table underscores the divide: OPEC sees a world thirsty for oil, while others anticipate a more balanced—or even oversupplied—market.
Where’s the Glut? The Beef Is in the Forecasts
So, where indeed is the oversupply everyone’s been warning about? OPEC’s report suggests it’s nowhere to be found, with deficits looming unless production ramps up further. Yet, as inventories creep higher and prices soften, the “glut” might be more in the eye of the beholder. The cartel’s history of rosy projections invites doubt—past overestimations have led to surprise surpluses and price volatility.
For energy traders and consumers, this discrepancy means uncertainty. If OPEC is right, oil prices could stabilize or firm up; if the IEA and Goldman prevail, a bearish slide awaits. As OPEC+ navigates its production thaw, the real question is whether demand will deliver the beef to justify the hype—or leave markets hungry for a correction. Stay tuned; the oil patch’s favorite debate rages on.
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