Petrobras, Brazil’s state-run oil company, has outlined ambitious drilling and production expectations for 2025 as part of its 2025–2029 Business Plan and Strategic Plan 2050. Below is a summary based on available information:
Drilling Expectations for 2025
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Domestic Exploration:
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Petrobras is prioritizing exploration in Brazil’s offshore basins, particularly the pre-salt fields in the Santos and Campos Basins, which account for 81% of its total production. The company plans to add 14 new platforms within the next five years, with significant drilling targets in southeastern basins.
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A key focus is the Equatorial Margin, especially the Foz do Amazonas basin, where Petrobras is seeking environmental approval to drill exploratory wells. The company is optimistic about obtaining permits in 2025, following a partial win with Ibama in May 2025, though future licensing remains uncertain due to environmental concerns.
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Petrobras plans to drill new wells in the Aram block (Santos Basin), where it recently discovered “excellent quality” oil, and resume onshore drilling in Bahia state with a target of 100 wells over the next five years.
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The company is also revitalizing mature fields, such as those in the Campos Basin, with studies to refurbish four platforms to extend their productive life.
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International Exploration:
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Petrobras is expanding its exploration efforts abroad, with drilling campaigns planned for 2025 in São Tomé and Príncipe (July–August) and South Africa (second half of the year).
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In Colombia, Petrobras is advancing an offshore gas project following a major gas discovery in the GUA-OFF-O Block, with potential to export gas to Brazil.
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The company is also assessing opportunities in Argentina and engaging in talks with Nigeria for deepwater acreage.
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Production Expectations for 2025
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Production Targets:
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Petrobras aims to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, driven by the start-up of three new production systems.
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The company expects to maintain production levels close to 2024’s total of 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), with 2.2 million bpd of oil and 2.4 million boed of commercial oil and gas.
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Pre-salt production is projected to remain dominant, with 2.2 million boed from its own fields and 3.2 million boed from operated fields, leveraging high-productivity wells in fields like Búzios, Tupi, and Sépia.
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New Production Units:
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Petrobras plans to deploy 15 new Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) units between 2025 and 2030, with nine already contracted. These units will boost capacity, particularly in the pre-salt fields.
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In 2024, Petrobras started two FPSOs ahead of schedule (Maria Quitéria in the Jubarte field and Marechal Duque de Caxias in the Mero field), which will contribute to 2025 production.
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Reserve Replacement:
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Petrobras reported proved reserves of 11.4 billion boe in 2024, with a 154% reserve replacement rate, driven by progress in fields like Atapu, Sépia, Búzios, and Itapu. The company aims to continue replacing reserves to prevent production declines expected around 2030.
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Investment and Financial Context
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Capital Expenditure (Capex):
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Petrobras has allocated $111 billion for 2025–2029, with $77 billion earmarked for exploration and production. For 2025, capex is set at $17–18.5 billion, down from $21 billion initially planned, reflecting austerity measures in response to lower oil prices (~$65/barrel).
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The company is focusing on cost optimization, simplifying projects, and maintaining a breakeven price of $28/barrel, well below global averages.
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Sustainability and Decarbonization:
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Petrobras is investing $16.3 billion in low-carbon initiatives, including Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and HISEP technology to reduce CO2 emissions. It aims to maintain a low carbon intensity of 15 kgCO₂e/boe in exploration and production by 2025.
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The company has committed to a 30% reduction in operational emissions by 2030 (from 2015 levels) and operational emissions neutrality by 2050.
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Challenges and Risks
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Environmental Licensing: Delays in obtaining permits, particularly for the Foz do Amazonas basin, could hinder drilling plans.
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Market Conditions: Lower oil prices and global trade uncertainties may pressure financial performance, with Petrobras adopting a cautious approach to capex and dividends.
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Equipment Constraints: Analysts note potential equipment shortages that could moderate production growth in the near term.
Summary
Petrobras is set to maintain robust production levels in 2025, targeting a slight increase of 100,000 bpd, driven by new FPSOs and pre-salt field development. Drilling efforts will focus on Brazil’s pre-salt and Equatorial Margin, alongside international ventures in Africa and Colombia. With a $17–18.5 billion capex for 2025, the company is balancing growth with cost discipline and sustainability, aiming to replace reserves and reduce emissions. However, environmental licensing and market volatility pose risks to achieving these goals.
Brazilian oil and gas major Petrobras has signed an engineering, production, construction, and installation (EPCI) contract with Subsea 7 for the Búzios 11 Project, worth R$8.4bn ($1.48bn)
The contract establishes a minimum requirement of 40% local content, but the expectation is to reach a percentage above 50%. In total, the deal is expected to generate over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs.
The Búzios 11 production development project foresees the interconnection of 15 wells to the P-83 platform, with eight producers and seven alternating water and gas injectors.
The start of the EPCI Búzios 11 offshore campaign is scheduled for October 2027. The Búzios consortium is composed of Petrobras as the operator, the Chinese partner companies CNOOC and CNODC, as well as PPSA as the manager of the production sharing contracts.
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