ENB Pub Note: The total volume of India’s imports in 2025 is shown on top, and the update from the Dahej LNG terminal is shown below.
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Estimated Import Volume for 2025:
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India’s LNG imports are projected to rise by 4% to 10% compared to 2024, reaching approximately 24.1 to 26.7 million metric tons (MMT) or roughly 33.1 to 36.7 billion cubic meters (bcm).
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Another estimate suggests imports could reach 27 MMT (approximately 37.1 bcm), supported by increased offshore gas production and pipeline infrastructure expansion.
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For context, in the fiscal year 2023–2024 (April 2023–March 2024), India imported 22.87 MMT (about 31.4 bcm), a 17.5% increase from the previous year’s 19.46 MMT.
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From April to October 2024, imports were 22,085 million standard cubic meters (mmscm), equivalent to about 16.1 MMT or 22.1 bcm, up 22.2% from the same period in 2023.
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Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects India’s LNG imports could more than double by 2030 to 65 bcm (approximately 47.4 MMT), driven by a 60% increase in natural gas consumption.
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Infrastructure Supporting Imports:
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India’s LNG import capacity is currently 47.7 MMT per annum (mmtpa) across seven terminals, with plans to expand to 55 mmtpa by 2025.
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Key developments include the Dhamra LNG terminal (5 mmtpa) increasing imports with the completion of the Pradhan Mantri Urja Ganga pipeline, and the Dahej terminal expanding from 17.5 to 22 mmtpa by Q2 2025. The Dabhol terminal (5 mmtpa) is also set to operate at full capacity in 2025 with new breakwater infrastructure.
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The Chhara terminal in Gujarat, India’s eighth, began commissioning in April 2024, adding to capacity.
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Qatar:
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Share in 2022–2023: 48.6% of India’s LNG imports.
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Volume: Provides over one-third of India’s LNG, with estimates of ~11.1 MMT in 2023–2024.
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Key Deals: In February 2024, India signed a $78 billion deal with Qatar to import 7.5 MMT annually through 2048 at rates lower than current prices, reinforcing Qatar’s position as the top supplier.
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Qatar’s proximity (3-day shipping to India) and competitive pricing make it a mainstay.
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United States:
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Share in 2022–2023: 11.0%.
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Volume: In 2023, the U.S. supplied 3.09 MMT, up from 2.16 MMT in 2022. In the first 11 months of 2024, imports surged to 7.14 bcm (approximately 5.2 MMT), a 71% year-over-year increase.
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Trend: The U.S. overtook the UAE in 2023 to become India’s second-largest supplier, driven by competitive pricing via the Cape of Good Hope route and weakening global LNG prices.
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Future: U.S. exports are expected to grow with new commercial contracts, as India was the seventh-highest destination for U.S. LNG in 2019 (5% of U.S. exports).
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United Arab Emirates (UAE):
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Share in 2022–2023: 18.5%.
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Volume: The UAE was the second-largest supplier until 2023, when it was surpassed by the U.S. Exact volumes for 2024 are unavailable, but its share has likely declined to 10–15% (2.3–3.4 MMT in 2023–2024).
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Deals: India signed a long-term contract with the UAE for 1 MMT annually, boosting supply reliability.
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Oman:
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Share in 2022–2023: 5.6% (~1.3 MMT).
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Oman remains a steady but smaller supplier, benefiting from proximity in the Middle East.
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Australia:
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Share in 2022–2023: 2.8% (~0.6 MMT).
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Australia is a growing supplier, with potential to increase exports as India diversifies its portfolio.
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France:
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Share in 2022–2023: 2.3% (~0.5 MMT).
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India signed a long-term contract with France for 1 MMT annually, indicating a rising role.
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Angola:
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Share in 2022–2023: 2.3% (~0.5 MMT).
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Angola contributes modestly, primarily through spot or short-term deals.
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Nigeria:
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Share in 2022–2023: 1.9% (~0.4 MMT).
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Nigeria is a minor but consistent supplier, with potential for growth as India seeks African sources.
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Other Countries:
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Share in 2022–2023: 7.0% (~1.6 MMT).
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India imports smaller volumes from countries like Algeria, Yemen, Trinidad and Tobago, Russia, Norway, Indonesia, and Equatorial Guinea.
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Notable: The Chhara terminal received its commissioning cargo from Equatorial Guinea in April 2024.
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Mozambique is emerging as a potential supplier, with Indian PSUs holding a 30% stake in a $20 billion LNG project, aiming to diversify from Qatar.
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Diversification: India has expanded its supplier base since 2006, moving beyond Qatar (sole supplier until 2004) to include Middle Eastern, African, North American, and Asia-Pacific sources. This reduces reliance on any single supplier and mitigates geopolitical risks.
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Contract Types: India uses a mix of long-term contracts (e.g., Qatar’s 7.5 MMT/year deal, UAE and France’s 1 MMT/year each), mid-term/short-term contracts, and spot purchases. Long-term contracts are critical for price stability, as spot market volatility (e.g., $84.76/mmBtu in March 2022) can disrupt affordability.
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Price Sensitivity: India’s LNG demand is price-elastic, with high global prices (e.g., $34/mmBtu in 2022) leading to a 19% import drop in 2022. Lower prices in 2024 (e.g., $8.30–$12.30/mmBtu) spurred import growth.
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Policy and Demand Drivers: India aims to increase natural gas’s share in its energy mix from 6.2% to 15% by 2030, driven by industrial demand (fertilizers, manufacturing), city gas distribution (CNG stations), and power generation. LNG is key to replacing coal and meeting net-zero goals by 2070.
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Challenges: Congested infrastructure, expiring legacy contracts post-2028, and potential spot market exposure could constrain growth unless new long-term deals are secured.
During the January-March quarter, the 17.5 mtpa Dahej LNG terminal processed 189 TBtu of LNG, down compared to 219TBtu in the same quarter in 2024.
Dahej volumes also dropped compared to 228 TBtu in the previous quarter.
Petronet said the overall LNG volume processed by the company reached 205 TBtu in the January-March period.
This compares to 234 TBtu and 228 TBtu in the corresponding and previous quarters, respectively.
During the financial year that ended March 31, Dahej terminal processed an LNG volume of 876 TBtu, compared to 865 TBtu during the previous financial year.
The overall LNG volume processed by Petronet LNG was the highest ever, at 934 TBtu, compared to the LNG volume of 919 TBtu processed in the previous financial year
Moreover, profit after tax or PAT reached 10.70 billion rupees ($125.2 million) in the quarter under review, a rise compared to 7.38 billion rupees and 8.67 billion rupees in the corresponding and previous quarters, respectively.
The company said its profit before tax or PBT reached 14.46 billion rupees ($169.2 million) in the quarter under review.
This compares to 9.96 billion rupees in the corresponding quarter and 11.69 billion rupees in the previous quarter.
During the financial year that ended March 31, the company has reported highest ever PBT and PAT.
Petronet LNG reported PBT and PAT of 52.75 billion rupees and 39.26 billion rupees respectively in the current financial year, as against 47.57 billion rupees and 35.36 billion rupees, respectively in the previous financial year.
“During the current quarter, the 0fftakers have made payment of outstanding use or pay dues of 360.94 crore pertaining to CY 2021,” Petrnet LNG said.
Petronet said the “robust financial performance of the current financial year was achieved due to efficiency in operations and higher capacity utilization.”
Last year, Petronet launched two 180,000 cbm LNG tanks at the Dahej terminal in western Gujarat state.
These two tanks add to six existing storage tanks at the Dahej terminal with a total capacity of 932,000 cbm.
In addition, Petronet is currently expanding its Dahej LNG terminal with about 5 mtpa of new capacity,
The company previously said it expects the 5 mtpa additional capacity at the Dahej terminal to be available by June.
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