A patch of thunderstorms south of Jamaica is forecast to grow into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday before strengthening into a hurricane late Tuesday as it moves northwest through the Caribbean toward the Gulf of Mexico, the US National Hurricane Center said.
The system is on an unusual track for November and threatens to menace offshore oil and natural gas production areas in the western Gulf, a region that usually only faces threats in summer and early fall.
The storm is likely to be significantly weakened by wind shear, which is high at this time of year, when it reaches these areas, said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group.
Over the next few days the system is expected to dump heavy rain across Jamaica and Cuba before drenching parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast.
“Given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,’’ said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist with the US center.
Rafael would be the 17th storm of the six-month Atlantic season, which has seen five hurricanes strike the US already — including Helene that devastated Appalachian Mountain regions.
In other weather news:
Spain: Deadly storms are continuing to bring chaos to the country. Flooded streets brought traffic to a standstill in Barcelona on Monday, while local train services were suspended. Parts of Catalonia are under a red alert for torrential rains. Southern Catalonia borders Valencia, which is grappling with the aftermath of floods that killed at least 217 people, with hundreds more still missing.
Meanwhile, the western coast of Spain is bracing for remnants of Tropical Storm Patty, which dissipated over the North Atlantic. The system is forecast to bring 1 to 3 inches (2.5 to 7.6 cm) of rain, with some areas getting up to 5 inches, across parts of Spain and Portugal.
Pacific: Tropical Storm Yinxing has formed east of the Philippines. It is possible it could hit the Philippines as a typhoon later this week, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.
— With assistance from Rodrigo Orihuela
