The Suez Canal has seen a significant decrease in shipping traffic, Dryad Global noted in its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA).
According to the MSTA, which was released this week, this traffic more than halved between mid-December and April 1 and this decline “has resulted in a significant revenue loss for Egypt, totaling $1.2 billion by late March 2024”.
“The situation is attributed to rising insurance, fuel, and wage costs, which are fueling fears of a new wave of inflation as ships are forced to take longer routes around Africa’s southern tip, adding 14 days to transit time,” Dryad said in the MSTA.
In a release sent to Rigzone last month, Xeneta, which describes itself as the leading ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform, outlined that conflict in the Red Sea region escalated in December and “has seen most ocean freight container services avoid the Suez Canal due to the threat of attack by Houthi militia”.
Earlier this year, Ellen R. Wald, the President of Transversal Consulting outlined to Rigzone that the impact of oil shipments having to go around Africa instead of through the Red Sea is multilayered.
In a report sent to Rigzone back in January, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, stated that the Red Sea is a globally important transit route, “with around 12 percent of oil and eight percent of LNG passing through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait”.
Indian Ocean
In its latest MSTA, Dryad also highlighted that EU Naval Force Operation ATALANTA has advised commercial shipping to sail at least 150 nautical miles east of the current traffic route to avoid attacks from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV).
“The recommendation follows an incident where a UAV targeted MSC Orion southeast of Socotra Island, confirming that attacks can occur up to 800 nautical miles from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen,” Dryad added.
“EUNAVFOR recommends establishing an alternative sea route, following BMP5 recommendations, reporting incidents, random speed and course changes, and implementing a stricter AIS policy,” it continued.
“As previously reported by Dryad Global, the Houthis have the capability and resources to broaden their attacks on commercial shipping. In recent months, incidents have indicated an expansion of their operational area into the Indian Ocean,” Dryad warned in the MSTA.
“Iran’s deployment of the Shaid Mahdavi to the southern hemisphere on 04 March 2024 is expected to provide C2 and support to the Houthis, just as the Beshad did in the Gulf of Aden and Bab-El-Mandeb,” it went on to state.
Dryad noted in the MSTA that the vessel can launch ballistic missiles and transport attack drones and helicopters to support Houthi missions.
“Overburdened Allied naval forces may struggle to protect commercial shipping this far out in the Indian Ocean,” Dryad pointed out in the MSTA.
“To mitigate the threat, allied naval forces would greatly benefit from increasing their presence in the region,” it added.
Bulletin Warning
A bulletin posted the Maritime Security Center – Horn of Africa website last week stated that “ships sailing off the Indian Ocean are recommended to maintain a heightened state of vigilance in light of the recent escalation of Houthi attacks using drones in the Indian Ocean”.
“Since the end of November 2023, multiple incidents involving drone and missile attacks have taken place in the South red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and lately in the Indian Ocean,” the bulletin warned.
“MSC Orion was targeted by a UAV 200 nautical miles southeast of Socotra Island whilst the MV was transiting in the Indian Ocean, northbound toward Salalah (Oman). This attack confirms that potential attacks can take place in the Indian Ocean up to 800 nautical miles from the areas under Houthi control in Yemen,” it added.
“In light of this attack, assessed UAV range and last public statements, it is suggested to establish an alternative sea route no less than 150 nautical miles east of the current traffic routes. Additionally, it is recommended to implement random alterations in course and speed during NAVTRACKS, along with adopting a more restrictive AIS policy to minimize positional exposure,” it went on to state.