The 6 November will be ‘the day after’ of earth-shaking US elections that could impact the world for decades, but the biggest risk – an election too close to call – is on the cards.
Between the time it takes to process postal ballots and deal with provisional ballots in some battleground states, votes will not be fully counted on election night. Projections of who won a close presidential race might not come for days, similar to the 2020 election.
In 2020, Trump proclaimed victory on election night, even though he ultimately lost to Joe Biden.
With just days before Americans head to the polls, intelligence agencies are warning local law enforcement and election officials about the heightened risk of violence affecting ballot boxes, polling locations, and election staff across the US.
This comes as ballot drop box arson cases sparked fresh national security concerns.
In 2023, the SPLC documented 1,430 hate and antigovernment extremist groups that comprise the organisational infrastructure upholding white supremacy in the US. The years since the 6 January 2021 insurrection have been a time for the hard right to prepare. In 2021, there were ‘only’ 838 such groups.
Vice President Kamala Harris, her campaign team, and some of Trump’s allies have said they expect the former president to declare victory on election night quickly — even if the outcome is not settled in key swing states.
A hasty and unfounded proclamation of Trump’s victory could lead to local blockades by his supporters of the certification of results, effectively blocking the process. In the meantime, mass disorder and insurrection could unfold.
Trump, 78, has everything to lose at these elections, which he admitted were the last for him.
“If everything is honest, I will gladly accept the results. I do not change on that,” Trump said in an interview on 1 May 2024. “If it is not, you have to fight for the right of the country,” he added.
Most voters, however, think Trump will not concede if he loses the 2024 presidential election, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
He has warned of election-related violence emanating from the political left, suggesting that such “enemies within” be put down by military force.
It seems all the ingredients are there for unrest, and let us not be afraid to say it – civil war in the world’s leading democracy.
In her 2022 book, “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them,” renowned political scientist Barbara F. Walter argues that “we are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” This is down to a toxic mix of political extremism and polarisation, social and cultural tribalism, the popular embrace of conspiracy theories, the proliferation of guns and well-armed militias and the erosion of faith in government and the liberal, Western democratic state.
Among the key factors she cites is accelerationism — which Walter describes as “the apocalyptic belief that modern society is irredeemable and that its end must be hastened so that a new order can be brought into being.”
And we know the name of the Messiah of the new order.
Some of us have seen the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Maybe in our lifespan, we will also witness the end of American democracy.
A clear-cut election result would be more than welcome to avoid catastrophic scenarios.
Such a result could be the result of a greater than usual participation in the elections, particularly in the seven states that decide the elections. Currently, the margin in all of them is too close to call.
Even if Trump wins, a clear-cut victory would be the better option. And if Kamala Harris wins, she must initiate electoral reform in the US.
It is not easy. The Electoral College process is enshrined in the US Constitution, and such changes would need a constitutional amendment.
But first things first. A massive voter turnout could bring the change that the US and the free world need.