The final Brief of the year looks at the positives – and there are actually plenty. Through 2024, Europeans increasingly began to think European and the Union, albeit slow, hinted its ability to overcome difficulties.
Looking ahead, there are many reasons to feel down about the European Union as unity largely remains out of reach, thwarted by a stubborn few in the Council.
Between blocking a common approach to Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty and Georgia’s EU accession dream turning into a nightmare, European competitiveness continues to deteriorate.
Last but not least, Brussels has only seen six hours of sunlight so far this December.
But in the spirit of the season, we take a look at the positives and what they could mean for the year ahead.
First, there seems to have been a change in attitude towards the European project, both among political leaders and ordinary Europeans.
Second, the EU has indeed demonstrated its ability to find solutions to complex problems, and there is more to come.
Thinking European
Without much fanfare, the European right-wing bloc has adopted a new approach to the European project over the last years.
While European right-wing parties cheered the results of the Brexit vote in 2016, you would be hard-pressed to find them now calling for their country to leave the union outright – with some exceptions, of course.
Take Marine Le Pen, for example. The French presidential hopeful has had quite the political journey about EU membership. In 2017, she called for a referendum on France’s continued EU membership, but now, she does not even want France to leave the eurozone.
No longer a question of for or against, the European project has become a battle of political ideas. It is a fight not about “Should I stay or should I go?” but about “Where should Europe be heading?” – a fight that the European right seems to be winning.
Furthermore, the EU has come together even more despite the acts of Russia, which, in its attempt to push one country out of NATO, made two others join the alliance. Meanwhile, 2024 was a year that welcomed new candidate countries, opening negotiations for others and multiple first governmental conferences, increasing the number of those in the EU waiting room and speeding up others’ progress.
As has been argued elsewhere, Putin’s attempt to split Europeans has achieved the opposite.
Trust in the EU has also increased, not only among political leaders but also among average Europeans. In 2024, the gap between how many trust the EU and how many trust their national governments is the widest in more than a decade – with 51% to 33% in favour of the EU.
All in all, the stage could be set for common European solutions if European leadership can forge the necessary compromises.
Consciously or not, Europe may have the right team at the right time going into the New Year.
In short, Costa is whispering with Orbán, Rutte is whispering with Trump, the Polish presidency could bolster security, and the Danes are helping to kick-start long-term budget talks and (another) migration reform.
The European executive also looks on the bright side, with a Commission spokesperson recently saying: “We are always hopeful”.
Solutions looming
And the Commission may have reason to be. Thinking European is one thing, but agreeing on solutions might not be so far-fetched.
During yesterday’s EU Summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán renewed his call for a ‘Christmas truce’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine – a plan that only the Hungarians seem to fancy.
The silent response from other member states reinforced the notion that the EU is firmly behind Ukraine – even after almost three years of war.
Draghi’s diagnosis of European competitiveness stung. However, despite falling behind American companies, European firms are still managing to compete. Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk has outperformed its own expectations time and its closest US rival, Eli Lilly. Although, today might be the wrong day to tooth that horn.
European unity may be the most evident on the issue of joint borrowing. German austerity may be on the way out as even the mother of the German schuldenbremse, Angela Merkel herself, opens the door to abolishing the budget rule, allowing the German government to increase public spending beyond an annual budget deficit of 3 %.
Similarly, the club of the frugal four–member states that opposed a bigger budget in the 2020 budget negotiations has shrunk as the Danes now favour more common EU debt.
So, although the challenges currently outnumber the proposed solutions, the EU may just get its act together in 2025.
After all, the new year is the time for a new start, and with a new commission, fresh leadership, it could be just the necessary combination.
The Roundup
Economy – The EU’s push to boost competitiveness through deeper capital markets integration and cuts in public spending is a recipe for economic disaster, Fabio De Masi, lead MEP for Germany’s new left-wing rebel party, BSW, told Euractiv in an interview.
Health – The European Parliament approved the creation of a permanent Public Health Committee (SANT), but some MEPs are concerned that the committee will become a playground for pharmaceutical sector lobbyists.
Tech – The European Commission unconditionally approved on Friday the acquisition of Israeli AI chip software company Run:ai by US chip maker NVIDIA, saying there is still ample competition in the sector.
Politics – Hungary’s six-month term as chair of the Council of the European Union was a “political presidency,” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told reporters in Brussels late Thursday.
Around Europe
Warsaw – Poland shapes its migration policy based on national and EU security interests and needs, the Polish Interior Ministry told Euractiv Poland, responding to NGO criticisms.
Bucharest – Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD), the winner of the parliamentary elections on 1 December, has pulled out of government formation talks and will back a right-wing government, the party’s leader, Marcel Ciolacu, said on Thursday.
Madrid – Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party filed a complaint with the state prosecutor against the far-right Vox party on Thursday for alleged irregular financing, which included a multimillion loan from a Hungarian bank.
Berlin – Germany has been expected to pursue a more aggressive policy on Russia if the frontrunner in the election race, Friedrich Merz, takes office, but as the campaign kicks off he is increasingly watering down hawkish policies.
Look out for
EU lawmakers and stakeholders in Brussels and across Europe are taking a break for the festive season, and so should you.
The same goes for The Brief, but you can follow our newsletter, The Capitals, every morning for a special dispatch from across the union and beyond. Otherwise, we look forward to informing you about everything to do with Europe and Brussels in the New Year.
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Daniel Eck]
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