By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Across Canada, home prices (actual, not seasonally adjusted) dipped in August from July, were down 3.9% year-over-year – the fifth year-over-year decline in a row – and were down 15.8% from the peak in March 2022, with single-family prices down 16.2% and condo prices 10.4% from their peaks, according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today.
But each of the major markets is dancing to its own drummer, with prices down from the peak the most in the Hamilton-Burlington metro (-21%) and in Greater Toronto (-17.5%), while they were down just a hair from record highs in Calgary, and hit a new highs in Quebec City and Edmonton.
Sales and inventory in Canada.
Home sales in Canada inched up by 1.3% in August from July, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted and compared to August last year, home sales fell 2.1%. “The bigger picture appears to be a market mostly stuck in a holding pattern,” CREA said today.
Compared to the 10-year average for this time of the year, home sales were down 9.0%, despite the third rate cut by the Bank of Canada, including two by the end of July, just in time for the August housing market. But the BoC’s QT continues, and it has shed 52% of its balance sheet by now.
New listings rose by 1.1% in August from July, the sixth month of increases over the past six months.
Total listings jumped by 18.8% from a year ago, to 177,450 homes. Compared to the average number of listings for this time of the year, they were down 11%, but with sales down 9%, supply ticked down to 4.1 months of sales in August, from 4.2 months in July, but was up from 3.5 months in August 2023.
Home prices by market in Canada.
All prices below are actual prices, not seasonally adjusted. All in Canadian dollars.
Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index:
Month-to-month: -1.4% to $1,307,400; below October 2021
From peak in February 2022: -17.5%
Year-over-year: -3.8%, fourth month of year-over-year declines in a row.
Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.7% to $667,700, back to November 2021
From peak in April 2022: -14.9%
Year-over-year: -5.3%, with 19 of the past 20 months booking year-over-year declines.
Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (part of the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):
Month-to-month: -0.4% to $911,500, where it had been in August 2021
From peak in February 2022: -21.2%
Year-over-year: -1.8%, fifth month in a row of declines.
Hamilton-Burlington metro condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.6% to $521,300, the lowest since October 2021.
From peak in April 2022: -17.6%
Year-over-year: -6.8%, third month in a row of declines.
Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: unchanged, at $2,045,200, and below February 2022.
From peak in April 2022: -2.4%
Year-over-year: +1.6%, smallest gain in 13 months.
Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: unchanged, at $768,200, same as in March 2022.
Year-over-year: -0.1%, second year-over-year decline in a row.
Victoria, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.5%, to $1,146,400, below November 2021
From peak in April 2022: -11.3%
Year-over-year: -2.4%, third year-over-year decline in a row.
Ottawa, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.3% to $732,500, back to May 2021
From peak in March 2022: -10.8%
Year-over-year: -0.3%, third year-over-year decline in a row.
Calgary, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.4% from the record in the prior month, to $688,900, the first month-to-month dip since December 2023. In August a year ago, prices rose 0.6% from the prior month. So maybe finally time to take a breath?
Year-over-year: +9.2%, the smallest gain since August 2023.
Montreal, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.8%, to $628,300, back to around February 2022.
From peak in May 2022: -2.5%
Year-over-year: +3.3%.
Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.8% to $552,700
From peak in April 2022: -4.7%
Year-over-year: +1.5%.
Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.2% to $462,500
New high
Year-over-year: +9.1%
In the 17 years since the peak of the prior bubble in June 2007, the index is up 16%.
Edmonton, condo benchmark price: An epic condo bubble dissolved. Despite the surge since early 2023, the index is down 18% from the peak in June 2007.
Month-to-month: +0.5% to $197,800, first seen in January 2007.
From peak in June 2007: -18%
Year-over-year: +10.7%
Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +1.4% to $424,700, a new high
Year-over-year: +10.0%
Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: unchanged at $381,900
From peak in March 2022: -1.6%
Year-over-year: +5.2%
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