The United States is riding a wave of economic transformation fueled by an aggressive tariff strategy under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Far from the dire predictions of mainstream media, which warned of consumer price spikes and economic turmoil, recent data paints a different picture: tariff revenues are soaring, inflation is cooling, prices are stabilizing, and consumers are largely insulated from the impacts.
With a looming July 9, 2025, deadline for new trade negotiations and a reported deal with Vietnam, the U.S. is reshaping global trade dynamics. This article dives into the numbers, debunks the myths, and explores what’s next for America’s trade agenda.
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Tariff Revenue:
A Record-Breaking Year The U.S. has seen an unprecedented influx of tariff revenue in 2025, driven by duties imposed on foreign goods, particularly from China and other trading partners. According to posts on X, the U.S. Treasury reported $95.6 billion in tariff revenue as of June 24, 2025—a staggering 134.9% increase over the same period in 2024. Some sources claim annual revenue could reach $300 billion, nearly quadrupling last year’s $80 billion, though these figures await official confirmation. Historical data provides context. In 2024, U.S. tariff revenue was approximately $80 billion, up from $71 billion in 2023, according to U.S. Customs Service reports.
The 2025 surge reflects expanded tariffs, including rates as high as 30% on Chinese goods, and new duties on countries like Canada and Mexico. April 2025 alone generated $16.3 billion, a single-month record, compared to $9 billion in April 2024. This revenue is bolstering the U.S. Treasury, funding infrastructure, AI development, semiconductors, and worker relief programs.
The fiscal year 2025 budget deficit, while up 23% to $1 trillion, is offset by these gains, with a $258 billion surplus posted in April 2025, driven partly by customs duties.
Defying Predictions: Inflation Down, Prices Stable.
Mainstream media outlets, including CNN and The New York Times, warned that tariffs would jack up consumer prices, fueling inflation. Yet, the data tells a different story. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has dropped to 2.4% in June 2025, down from 3.0% in late 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is hovering at 2.8%, signaling a cooling economy.
Prices for consumer goods, particularly in the electronics and apparel sectors, which are heavily targeted by tariffs, are either stable or declining. A June 2025 report from the Department of Commerce noted a 1.2% year-over-year decline in imported goods prices, as foreign producers absorb tariff costs to remain competitive in the U.S. market. For example, Chinese manufacturers have slashed prices on solar panels and batteries to offset duties, benefiting U.S. energy consumers.
This aligns with Energy News Beat’s focus on affordable energy solutions, as lower input costs could accelerate renewable energy adoption. Retail data supports this trend. Walmart and Target reported no significant price hikes on tariffed goods in Q2 2025, with some categories, like clothing, seeing price reductions due to oversupply from tariffed countries. Consumers, far from being “hit” as predicted, are reaping the benefits of competitive pricing.
Consumers Spared: Why the Media Got It Wrong
The mainstream media’s narrative hinged on the assumption that tariffs would be passed directly to consumers. However, economic realities are more complex. Foreign exporters, desperate to maintain U.S. market share, are absorbing much of the cost. A 2025 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that only 10-15% of tariff costs on Chinese goods were passed to U.S. consumers, with the rest covered by exporters or mitigated through supply chain adjustments. Domestic manufacturers are also stepping up. Tariffs have incentivized U.S. production in steel, aluminum, and energy components, reducing reliance on imports. This shift supports jobs and keeps prices in check, as American firms face less pressure to match inflated import costs. The S&P 500 hit a record high in June 2025, reflecting investor confidence in this economic resilience.
Vietnam Trade Deal and the July 9 Deadline
On July 2, 2025, Bloomberg reported that President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, with details to follow. The agreement, if finalized, could reshape U.S.-Vietnam trade, which reached $123 billion in 2024, with Vietnam exporting electronics, apparel, and footwear to the U.S. The deal may include tariff reductions or exemptions for Vietnam in exchange for concessions on market access or intellectual property protections, aligning with Trump’s “America First” agenda. The July 9, 2025, deadline looms large, as it marks the expiration of temporary tariff exemptions for several countries, including Canada and Mexico. Negotiations are underway to secure new trade agreements, potentially lowering tariffs on North American goods in exchange for energy cooperation or border security commitments. A deal with Canada could stabilize oil and gas imports, critical for U.S. energy markets, while Mexico’s auto industry might see tariff relief to boost cross-border manufacturing. Other potential deals include negotiations with the European Union, which faces 10% tariffs on certain goods. The EU is pushing for exemptions, offering to increase U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports—a boon for American energy producers. India and South Korea are also in talks, with discussions focusing on technology transfers and agricultural trade.
What’s Next for the Tariff War?
The tariff war is far from over, but its impacts are defying critics. Revenue is flooding the Treasury, inflation is under control, and consumers are largely unscathed. The Vietnam deal and upcoming July 9 deadline signal more trade shifts, with energy markets poised to benefit from stabilized supply chains and new export opportunities. However, risks remain. Overreliance on tariffs could strain diplomatic ties, and domestic industries must scale up to meet demand.
I am curious to see how Canada, the UK, and the EU respond to the next wave of changes in Trump’s tariff war. It appears that they are determined to follow the Net Zero, Green Energy policies and are working to “Teach President Trump a lesson.” I think they are barking up the wrong tree. The new trading blocs around the world will leave the Net Zero and Green New Deal energy policies behind. Follow those ideologies, and you will see regime changes due to deindustrialization and high energy prices.
It is mind over matter. President Trump does not mind, because their opinions don’t matter.
Energy News Beat readers should watch for how trade deals affect oil, gas, and renewable energy inputs, as lower costs could drive innovation and spur further development. For now, the U.S. is leveraging tariffs to fund its future, proving the naysayers wrong, one dollar at a time. As this is a fluid situation, we are closely monitoring the market and the tariff impacts on energy.
*Disclaimer: Information from X posts is inconclusive and requires official verification.
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