“We get guaranteed bank deposits when there’s a bank run,” Barked Biggie Too.
“We get energy rebates when there’s a war,” continued the Chief Global Strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too-Big-To-Fail affairs.
“And we got stimmy checks when we had Covid,” bellowed Biggie.
“What are we gonna get when unemployment starts heading higher?”
And of course, you never interrupt Biggie when he’s on a roll, so I just nodded.
“Bank activity, commercial real estate, it’s all contracting. Why couldn’t we have a big, nasty recession in the 2nd half?” asked Biggie.
“If investors start losing faith in US gov’t credibility over the debt ceiling and the poor handling of this banking crisis, and we get the progressives screaming for stimmy checks at the first hint of rising unemployment, then we got a real problem,” said Biggie.
“They start talking about UBI and it’s over,” he said, dropping to a whisper.
“And let me tell you what Armageddon is. It’s a -200k non-farm payrolls report that leads to a 50bp rise in long-term bond yields. And that’s where the people running policy are leading us. To be an emerging market.”
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