Shipping stock prices surged in Asia today on the back of the fast-escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, with Iranian politicians threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz after US airstrikes on key nuclear sites.
Iran’s parliament has voted to block the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would need final approval from the country’s Supreme National Security Council. The decision follows a series of dramatic US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Fordow plant near Qom, as well as the Natanz and Isfahan sites. B-2 bombers and submarine-launched missiles were reportedly used over the weekend in what president Donald Trump called “very successful” strikes.
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Iran’s threatened closure of the Hormuz Strait — a narrow 33 km bottleneck through which 20% of global oil and gas passes daily — has sparked widespread alarm and confusion.
The Coswisdom Lake, a COSCO vessel, and the South Loyalty, a VLCC owned by China’s Bank of Communications, were both spotted this morning in indecisive mode, zigzagging at the entrance to the strait before cautiously proceeding, a situation not helped by the extreme amount of GPS spoofing seen in the region in recent days.
The tense situation across the Middle East is fuelling a surge in tanker markets. Analysts at Pareto noted that, even if Iran doesn’t enact a full blockade, increased risk of cargo seizures or drone attacks could necessitate military convoys — delaying voyages and tightening global tonnage supply. As a result, VLCC and LR rates are spiking, with expectations that risk premiums will climb further in the coming days.
“Events may lead tanker owners to invoke war clauses,” analysts at sister title Splash Extra noted, adding: “Any response by Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, or to interfere with tonnage of any flag, would trigger war risk clauses in P&I insurance, giving owners the right to refuse to continue through the area and to nominate an alternative safe port, with costs of doing so being for the charterer’s account. Fortunes were made by those owners willing to risk missile attacks in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. History may not be about to repeat itself, but the comparisons are clear to see.”
Makai Research added that vessels exiting Asia now face crucial routing decisions. With the Arabian Gulf in flux, many may choose to bypass the region entirely, ballasting toward the Cape of Good Hope and into the Atlantic. A full-scale redirection, however, risks overloading Atlantic basin tonnage and driving a short-term imbalance across the VLCC, suezmax, and aframax sectors.
Tensions aren’t confined to the Gulf. The Houthi movement in Yemen — aligned with Iran — has issued direct threats against US-linked shipping in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb, and Gulf of Aden. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has elevated the threat to “high” for any vessel with US affiliations, including flags, cargo, ownership, or charter links.
On Friday, the US Treasury launched its largest sanctions package to date targeting the Houthis’ illicit shipping and finance networks. Twelve companies, four individuals, and two vessels — including the Valente and Atlantis MZ — were blacklisted for smuggling over 60,000 metric tons of petroleum into Yemen and funneling the revenue toward arms procurement.
On the Israeli front, the port city of Haifa was struck by a missile on Friday, reportedly targeting a government facility near the docks. Maersk, the world’s second-largest containerline, has suspended all vessel calls and cargo acceptance for Haifa, citing heightened security concerns.
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