ENB Pub Note: While reviewing our annual LNG shipping data to compare our performance to prior years, I have compiled a summary from available public data.
Year-to-date summary
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2024 Exports: The U.S. exported 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG in 2024, equivalent to approximately 88.4 million metric tons (MT), maintaining its position as the global leader.
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2025 Forecast: Projections indicate U.S. LNG exports will increase to 13.7–14.2 Bcf/d in 2025, a 15–19% rise from 2024. This translates to roughly 100–104 million MT, driven by new capacity additions.
Key Drivers:-
New Facilities: Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 began operations in December 2024, adding 4.5 million tons per year (MTPA). Plaquemines Phase 2 and Golden Pass LNG are expected to start in 2025, contributing an additional ~5.3 Bcf/d by year-end.
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Existing Terminals: Utilization of the seven operational terminals (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Cameron, Calcasieu Pass, Cove Point, Plaquemines Phase 1) averaged 104% of nominal capacity in 2024, with stable or increased output expected in 2025.
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Policy Support: The Trump administration lifted the Biden-era pause on LNG export permits to non-free trade agreement countries, facilitating project approvals and market access.
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Specific Weekly Reports for 2025
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Source: EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update, March 20, 2025
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Number of Cargos: 26 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports.
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Estimated Volumes:
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Pipeline receipts to U.S. LNG terminals averaged 16.4 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day), or ~115 Bcf for the week.
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For 26 cargos, average volume per cargo is ~4.42 Bcf (115 Bcf ÷ 26).
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Converting to metric tons: 1 Bcf ≈ 20,000 MT, so 115 Bcf ≈ 2.3 million MT.
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Estimated Dollar Value:
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Henry Hub spot price averaged ~$4.22/MMBtu (March 19, 2025).
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Adding liquefaction ($1.15/MMBtu) and shipping costs ($0.50/MMBtu), total cost is ~$5.87/MMBtu.
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For 115 Bcf (115,000 MMBtu), value is ~$675 million (115,000 × $5.87).
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Alternatively, using 2024 average price of $232/MT (first half 2024, adjusted for 25% price drop), 2.3 million MT yields ~$533 million.
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Range: $533–$675 million, reflecting price variability.
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Destinations:
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Exact destinations are not specified, but 2024 trends suggest:
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Europe (53%): ~14 cargos to Netherlands, France, UK, Türkiye, Greece.
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Asia (33%): ~8–9 cargos to Japan, South Korea, India, China.
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Other regions (14%): ~3–4 cargos to Egypt, Jordan, Brazil.
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Europe’s share likely remained high due to winter demand and reduced Russian pipeline gas.
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Exporting Companies and Terminals:
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Vessels departed from:
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Sabine Pass LNG (Cheniere Energy): 8 cargos.
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Corpus Christi LNG (Cheniere Energy): 4 cargos.
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Freeport LNG: 4 cargos.
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Calcasieu Pass LNG (Venture Global): 3 cargos.
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Cameron LNG: 3 cargos.
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Plaquemines LNG (Venture Global): 3 cargos.
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Cove Point LNG: 1 cargo.
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Primary exporters: Cheniere Energy (46% of cargos), Venture Global (23%), Freeport LNG (~15%).
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Notes:
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LNG pipeline receipts increased 0.6 Bcf/d from the prior week, reflecting ramp-up at Plaquemines LNG Phase 1.
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East Asia LNG futures averaged $13.47/MMBtu, and Netherlands TTF $13.41/MMBtu, indicating strong global demand.
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Source: EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update, May 22, 2025
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Number of Cargos: 27 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports.
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Estimated Volumes:
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Pipeline receipts averaged 15.6 Bcf/d, or ~109 Bcf for the week.
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For 27 cargos, average volume per cargo is ~4.04 Bcf (109 Bcf ÷ 27).
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Converting to metric tons: 109 Bcf ≈ 2.18 million MT.
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Estimated Dollar Value:
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Henry Hub spot price averaged ~$3.19/MMBtu (May 21, 2025).
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With liquefaction and shipping costs, total is ~$4.84/MMBtu.
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For 109 Bcf, value is ~$527 million (109,000 × $4.84).
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Using 2024’s $232/MT, 2.18 million MT yields ~$506 million.
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Range: $506–$527 million.
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Destinations:
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No specific destinations reported, but based on 2024 distribution:
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Europe: ~14–15 cargos.
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Asia: ~9 cargos.
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Other regions: ~3–4 cargos.
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Europe’s demand may have softened due to milder spring weather, increasing Asia’s share slightly.
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Exporting Companies and Terminals:
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Vessels departed from:
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Sabine Pass LNG: 8 cargos.
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Freeport LNG: 5 cargos.
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Corpus Christi LNG: 4 cargos.
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Cameron LNG: 3 cargos.
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Calcasieu Pass LNG: 3 cargos.
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Plaquemines LNG: 3 cargos.
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Cove Point LNG: 1 cargo.
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Primary exporters: Cheniere Energy (44%), Venture Global (22%), Freeport LNG (~19%).
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Notes:
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Pipeline receipts decreased 0.2 Bcf/d from the prior week, possibly due to maintenance or demand fluctuations.
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East Asia LNG futures were $12.07/MMBtu, and TTF $11.82/MMBtu, reflecting softer global prices.
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Source: X post by
@LngPrime, May 30, 2025
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Number of Cargos: 29 LNG cargos departed U.S. terminals.
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Estimated Volumes:
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No pipeline receipt data for this week, but March–May 2025 averaged 15.6–16.4 Bcf/d. Assuming 16.0 Bcf/d, weekly volume is ~112 Bcf.
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For 29 cargos, average volume per cargo is ~3.86 Bcf.
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Converting: 112 Bcf ≈ 2.24 million MT.
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Estimated Dollar Value:
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Henry Hub spot price ~$3.19/MMBtu (May 21, 2025, no later data).
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Total cost ~$4.84/MMBtu, so 112 Bcf yields ~$542 million.
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At $232/MT, 2.24 million MT yields ~$520 million.
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Range: $520–$542 million.
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Destinations: Not specified, likely similar to May 15–21 (Europe ~53%, Asia ~33%, others ~14%).
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Exporting Companies and Terminals: Not detailed, but based on prior weeks:
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Likely split: Sabine Pass (8–9 cargos), Freeport (5), Corpus Christi (4), Cameron (3), Calcasieu Pass (3), Plaquemines (2–3), Cove Point (~1).
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Exporters: Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Freeport LNG.
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Notes: Pipeline deliveries unchanged from prior week, suggesting stable production.
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Annual Context:
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U.S. LNG exports forecast at 13.7 Bcf/d in 2025, up 22% from 11.9 Bcf/d in 2024.
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Annual volume: 13.7 Bcf/d × 365 = ~5,000 Bcf, or ~100 million MT.
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Weekly average: 5,000 Bcf ÷ 52 ≈ 96 Bcf, or ~1.92 million MT.
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Assuming 3–4 Bcf per cargo, weekly cargos: ~24–32 (average ~28).
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Number of Cargos: ~28 cargos/week.
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Estimated Volumes: 96 Bcf/week (1.92 million MT).
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Estimated Dollar Value:
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Henry Hub forecast: $4.10/MMBtu (average 2025).
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Total cost: ~$5.75/MMBtu, so 96 Bcf yields ~$552 million/week.
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At $232/MT (2024 baseline), 1.92 million MT yields ~$445 million/week.
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Range: $445–$552 million/week.
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Destinations:
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Europe: 53% (15 cargos to Netherlands, France, UK, Türkiye, Germany).
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Asia: 33% (9 cargos to Japan, South Korea, India, China).
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Other: 14% (4 cargos to Egypt, Brazil, Jordan).
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Exporting Companies:
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Cheniere Energy (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi): ~40–50% of cargos.
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Venture Global (Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines): ~15–20%.
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Freeport LNG: ~15–20%.
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Others: Cameron LNG, Cove Point, Golden Pass (starting late 2025).
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Notes:
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New terminals (Plaquemines Phase 2, Golden Pass) increase capacity by late 2025.
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Europe’s demand may decline post-winter; Asia’s share could rise.
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Weekly Update from LNG Prime
EIA said in its weekly report, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, that the total capacity of these 29 LNG vessels is 109 Bcf.
This compares to 27 shipments and 103 Bcf in the week ending May 21.
According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals stood at 15.7 Bcf/d this week, essentially unchanged from last week.
Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased 2.3 percent (0.2 Bcf/d) to 9.8 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 5.3 percent (0.2 Bcf/d), averaging 4.7 Bcf/d.
EIA said natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast remained essentially unchanged, at 1.2 Bcf/d this week.
During the week under review, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight LNG cargoes, and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent five shipments.
Moreover, the Freeport LNG terminal sent four cargoes, while Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines terminals and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal each sent three cargoes.
Additionally, the Cove Point terminal dispatched two cargoes, and the Elba Island facility sent one cargo during the week under review.
EIA said that the Henry Hub spot price dropped 5 cents from $3.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.14/MMBtu this Wednesday.
The June 2025 NYMEX contract expired this Wednesday at $3.204/MMBtu, down 16 cents from last Wednesday.
Also, the July 2025 NYMEX contract price decreased to $3.557/MMBtu, down 18 cents from last Wednesday to this Wednesday.
EIA said the price of the 12-month strip averaging July 2025 through June 2026 futures contracts declined 12 cents to $4.035/MMBtu.
The agency said that international natural gas futures further increased this report week.
Bloomberg Finance reported that average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia increased 38 cents to a weekly average of $12.45/MMBtu.
Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 33 cents to a weekly average of $12.15/MMBtu.
In the same week last year (week ending May 29, 2024), the prices were $12.00/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.86/MMBtu at TTF, EIA said.
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