Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories
Citi Says Russia-Ukraine De-escalation Could Impact Oil to $50, and Oil’s Surplus Is Here—But What’s the Real Story?
In the volatile world of energy markets, headlines from major financial institutions like Citigroup often grab attention. Recently, Citi analysts suggested that a potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could drive oil prices down toward […]
Wind Turbines are Made by Coal and Are Not Sustainable
They are fiscally incapable of sustaining themselves from day one and face catastrophic failures at 3 to 8 years.
Europe is the Biggest Loser in US-China Rare Earth Wars
In the escalating geopolitical tussle between the United States and China over rare earth elements (REEs)—critical minerals essential for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles (EVs) to fighter jets and renewable energy technologies—Europe finds itself […]
EU’s Climate Rules Have Caused a Response from the US and Qatar, Issuing Trade Threats
In an escalating tension over global energy trade, the European Union’s push for stringent climate and sustainability regulations has drawn sharp rebukes from major LNG suppliers, the United States, and Qatar. Both nations have issued […]
Russian Oil Keeps Flowing: “Sanctions Don’t Work as Intended”- Irina Slav
In the ever-evolving landscape of global energy geopolitics, one truth remains steadfast: Russian oil continues to flow unabated, defying the best efforts of Western sanctions to choke off Moscow’s revenues. Despite intensified pressure from the […]
The Permian Basin Reliability Plan will cost every customer in the ERCOT region.
ENB Pub Note: This article is from Joanna Friebele on Substack, and we recommend subscribing! This is an important story from Texas and the Permian Basin. We will cover this on the podcast later in […]
Gavin Newsom Signs Bill Allowing California Utility Companies to Draw Funding from State Wildfire Fund
In a move that has sparked widespread criticism, Governor Gavin Newsom signed a historic package of bipartisan legislation on September 19, 2025, aimed at addressing California’s escalating energy challenges. Among the provisions is the replenishment […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:17 – Citi Says Russia-Ukraine De-escalation Could Impact Oil to $50, and Oil’s Surplus Is Here—But What’s the Real Story?
07:51 – Wind Turbines are Made by Coal and Are Not Sustainable
12:26 – Europe is the Biggest Loser in US-China Rare Earth Wars
18:38 – EU’s Climate Rules Have Caused a Response from the US and Qatar, Issuing Trade Threats
20:43 – The Permian Basin Reliability Plan will cost every customer in the ERCOT region
24:31 – Gavin Newsom Signs Bill Allowing California Utility Companies to Draw Funding from State Wildfire Fund
26:40 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley: [00:00:00] Gavin Newsom signs a bill allowing California utility companies to draw funding from State Wildfire Fund. Energy News Beat Weekends Edition. [00:00:17][17.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:17] Citi says Russia-Ukraine de-escalation could impact oil to $50 and oil surpluses here. But what’s the real story? I had a lot of fun writing this one. In the volatile world of the energy market, headlines from the major financial institutions like Citigroup often grab attention. Recently, Citi suggested that a potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine could conflict drive oil prices down to $50 a barrel, accelerating an already emerging supply surplus. Michael there’s a lot of oil that’s out on the ocean right now and everybody’s saying there’s I got a few questions for you as we go through this, but let’s take a look at this. I put in here, let’s throw Saudi Arabia in the mix since they’re the head of the OPEC and OPEX Plus. How much do you think they need in order to meet Saudi Aramco’s contributions that are required in order pay for their fair share at the Saudi government? [00:01:19][61.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:20] The dividend is huge. I don’t know the exact dividend number, but it’s going to be absolutely insane. It’s one of the reasons why they want to jack up production. Again, this is why, not to tell you, this is why I’ve always been out on the OPEC wants its market share back. No, no, no. OPEK doesn’t want its market. Share OPEC, AKA Saudi Arabia needs to pay the Saudi government more and more money each year. And they have to do that by raising oil production. Exactly. [00:01:44][24.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:45] Now let’s take a look at if sanctions are deep post de-escalation price normalization versus flood lifting the price cap could allow Russia to capture full market value reducing the shadow fleet risks and stabilizing flows. All this is going to do Michael is put more money in Putin’s pocket because he’s not having to play the old shuffle game with the shadow Fleet. He’s going to be making more money, but he’s actually going to want to raise Prices. And prices are going to go up. They are maxed out. Let me make this perfectly clear. Oil is not going to flood the market from Russia. He is maxed-out. The only way President Trump is going to end the war is to get Putin to the table so that he can do business with United States oil companies. They need help. They’re maxed. I can’t stress this out enough. It’s not going to flood the market. You have Saudi Arabia that wants the market to go higher. How much is on the oil is on the water as is out there. And there we’ve got, I’ve got some of the numbers in there. We’re going to see $50 oil for a little bit. It’s going to be a bump. It’s all in the demand. If we get through the Russian war, we will see re energizing of business coming back online. And you’re going to have India picking up the slack where China is failing. And as long as I’ve said this before, as long as China’s buying the oil, I mean, India and China are buying the oil, we’re going to see strong demand. [00:03:24][99.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:25] And see, so I’m going to, I’m gonna take the other, the other side of this, but first you’ve got the numbers of what Saudi Arabia owes. The government each year. So let’s, let’s break this down here. Okay. So right now, the Saudi deficit, uh, their deficit to GDP is about 2.3, which who would have thought Saudi had a balanced budget considering all the oil, but there’s a couple of things they have to do. They have royalties in terms of obligations to the crown. That’s one budget light item for Saudi Aramco. They’ve income taxes that obviously go straight to the government and then they have dividends. And remember the government owns indirect, not direct, not indirectly, but about 81.5% directly, plus they have some indirect stakes via their public investment funds. And these three line items cover about 70 to 80% of the budget. And for 2025, the total just dividends. Are $85.4 billion, which is actually down from $124 billion in 2024 due to lower profits as it’s sort of a shift away from what they’re kind of calling these performance link payouts. The government receives about 82% of this royalties and taxes based on, you know, basically the first half of 2025 royalties were about $19.1 billion and the income taxes were up $25.7 billion. And so basically, if you kind of extrapolate that out for the full year. You’re sitting anywhere between 80 and 107. Billion dollars just from those two things. So those total likely payments, you group them all together. It’s about 150 to 180 billion for 2025 prices to quote unquote meet current obligations for a balanced budget. And so what you’re going to need to do is an additional 30 to 60 billion that, you know, if you do some back of the napkin math, it requires oil to be about $96 to break even. I hate, I will say this, I dislike strongly the, whoa, the Saudi government break even prices have to be this, so Saudi wants oil prices. No, they don’t. They actually don’t want oil prices to be that high, because that tank’s supply, and they have a balance. We you learn about this in econ 201, you know, you got to get past 101 first, but econ 201 You’ve learned this thing called the laffer curve and it was invented at the time of ronald reagan And what were they talking about? Well, they were talking about it’s this concept of The left or Democrats think we need a small number of very rich people paying the tax, or you have a larger, or the other side of the equation is a large tax base paying a little bit about. And it’s a multiplication problem. There’s this thing called the Laffer Curve that says to a certain point, the left is correct, then at a certain the right is correct. And there’s an inflection point where you hit it. It’s one of the reasons why we have, in this few states, sort of a progressive style. Tax regime, because there is a point at which, yes, we need high income folks paying taxes and most, you know, the top 50% pays 100% of the taxes. So we have a massive progressive tax. But to get back to this here, I’ve always hated that. I’m going to take the other side of this. So Stu, on my solo show last week with you around, gallivanting with our good friends at Reese Energy Consulting. Shout out though, you’re wearing the swag. I like it. Great podcast you did. I’m excited for that to come out, but we ran two stories. One of them was a CEO of Conical Phillips saying oil is going to be 70. And then you had Vicky Holub on the other shoulder saying, well, no oil is gonna be 50. This is groundbreaking for the show. I’m going to agree with Vicky holub on this one. I’ve never done that before, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and agree with her, I think oil is more likely to be 50 than 70. I think one of the big reasons why Trump wants to end this war in Ukraine quickly, because if you balance that on a geopolitical level with what he’s done in Israel, with his then secondary goal of lowering energy costs, he’s been very clear. He wants oils in the 50s, he wants gasoline below $2. The best way to do that is to end the war. Remove the sanctions, and now you will see oil prices go to 50. And I think they’re going to be 50 a lot longer than you think. I think 2026 is going to be a painful, painful year for shale oil and gas companies, because I don’t think we’re going to see anything above $65 oil. We’re probably going to, 60 might even be the lake. I think people need to set in for a low oil price. Yes, surpluses aren’t as big as people think. The problem is the demand is going to only continue to grow. We know it’s going to continue at the constant pace that it does. Both the IEA and the EIA have said that. We’ve also seen forecasts like we talked about from Citibank and JP Morgan. So I think I’m a little more bearish than you on this one. And we did cover our JP Morgan equities price forecast, which says it was about $55 oil. So I tend to fall in line there with that case. [00:07:50][265.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:51] Wind turbines are made by coal and are not sustainable. They’re fiscally incapable of sustaining themselves from day one and face catastrophic failures in three to eight years. Michael, I had an absolute blast writing this one on the energy news beat. Dot sub stack dot com. It is a fun story. The global push for green energy wind turbines are often hailed as a symbol of sustainability. However, A closer look at their life cycle reveals a troubling irony. Michael, they start out in Australia. Australia exports its coal to China. China sits there and they buy it for pennies on the dollar. They hit a record 59.9 million tons in January through August of 2024. They’re already at 45.1 million tons. You take a look at all of that, then it goes to China doesn’t pay much for it because it uses it, but it uses it hugely. And then you take coal burns coal to make things and then what they One of the things is wind turbines and solar panels and everything else, and then you take a look at number five we buy those expensive unreliable turbines from China at a high cost and you take a look at a two to three megawatt onshore wind turbine costs about 1.3 million to two million per megawat, meaning a single unit can run 2.6 million to six million dollars including installation. What is not mentioned is how much oil and diesel and steel and coal is used in order to get those things on the pads. And then Michael, what is not talked about again, is those things take about a hundred gallons of oil that have to be changed all the time. They fail within three years. And now that I’m driving between homes and I see this on a regular basis, the wind farms in Texas. Michael, when you drive by a wind farm, you can tell their blades have been freshly put out by when they’re not turned or turned, you always see them arcing, guess what, as their way and they fall apart, I can tell that they’re, not replacing the blades like they should, and they’re not in under good maintenance. So the inflation reduction act, I talk about that here in a little bit later. But what they tell us manufacturing and installation costs, 2.6 million, 1.3, but they say that they, it’s a payback of seven to 12 years without subsidies. Hogwash that is a lie. What they tell you is when you go out and search for it, they say, that’s why everybody’s out there saying when turbines are cheaper, they’re not. But when you going to the life cycle, unbelievable amount of pain trying to find these numbers. [00:10:49][177.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:49] Well, yeah, they want to make it as opaque as possible. And you could argue that it’s hard to find the numbers from an oil and gas exploration standpoint. We’re in the business, so we know how to find them. But I think you made an excellent point. And we’ve been on this for a while. You actually coined the term Turley’s Law, which says the more green we go, the more fossil fuels we use. And wind energy is a specific. Specific example that I mean I when I first you know in the whole renewable push and we first started doing this podcast five years ago I was sort of on wind was probably a little bit better than solar if you had to put a gun to my head and ask I’ve completely flipped on that completely flipped. I could actually I actually believe there’s a point at which solar plus storage There’s a need for it. There’s an there’s time and a place for it I think specifically if we’re gonna talk about this data center demand or you want to move to maybe a smart home capability I think there’s great great Mood for it, I do think that it’s moved into there. Wind is completely falling off the table for a variety of reasons. One of them being, they’re just ugly to look at. Number two, the lifespan, which you’ve talked about. Number three, the carbon footprint these things make is pretty unbelievable. And the amount of electricity you get for that carbon footprint is absolutely terrible. So I think you hit the nail on the head with this one. [00:12:00][70.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:00] And the fun part is Michael, nobody is talking about the $89 billion price tag. When these things fail at eight years, they are fiscally totally irresponsible. Prices get passed on to consumers and it’s going to be horrible. 89 billions for land reclamation is the start is the start and nobody’s talking about it. [00:12:25][24.6]
[00:12:26] Europe is the biggest loser in the U S China, rare earth wars. You can’t buy this kind of stupid. In the escalating geopolitical tussle between the United States and China over rare earth and a remote, E-R-E-Es, or critical minerals, as anybody that graduates from us… Colorado School of Mines degree calls them essential for everything is smartphones and electric vehicles. I wonder if we know anybody from the school of mines. What a great school. Europe finds itself caught in the crossfire. Emerging as the unintended primary victim, both superfires. Vibe for dominance and supply chains that undermine modern economics and defense systems. I’ll tell you what, this is really, really bad and it’s going to break out. Europe’s commitment to net zero by 2050 has absolutely tubed it for this whole thing. And I put a chart in here how rare earth is used to power our defense. And you take a look at what we need. We have got a really pretty good grip on it. The USGS data shows US imports of REE compounds and metals dropped 11% this year from 2023 to 107 million in 2024. They’re gonna drop again because we have continued to get it fixed. I think the Trump administration is doing it. We’re already at 50% of the gallium we need for defense and military we can now produce in the United States. That’s huge. [00:13:55][89.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:55] Yeah, no, it is really huge. I think the EU has continued to continue, continue to shoot itself in the foot when it comes to a lot of this stuff. And I think when Europe says, Hey, we’re going to not only go all renewable, but then we’re gonna make sure and not have any access to any of these rare earth minerals. I mean, it’s, they look, they should learn their lesson. They ha they, they learned it with Russia, Trump back in 2016, warned them, you got to get off Russian gas. It’s a national security thing. And I think that’s the one thing. And they laughed at him. Yeah. And, you know, as somebody who’s in the oil and gas business, you know, I’m not terribly, you know, I’m not terribly excited about the oil and gas policies from the standpoint of we’re all about to make a lot less money next year, but you have to give Trump his dues from what he understands and always has been consistent. Oil and gas and energy is a national security issue and should be treated as such. And I think that’s what Europe needs to figure out. And if you are going to go renewables, then you have to look at it the same way you do oil and gas. It’s a national securities issue. I think the United States has figured it out, EU has not. [00:14:56][60.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:57] Oh, absolutely. And I want to say this for investing in oil and gas is it just means like when you and I are doing deals and looking at deals, we pick the wells with the best analytics so you can still invest in oil and gas and we are still going to be looking at deals that provide returns to investors. So it’s it is a tough time for the oil and gas, but there is still lots of money to be made. And I’m going to tell you this Michael, there’ll be more money to made in a low oil and gas environment than in renewables. [00:15:26][29.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:27] If you invest smart and that’s what we do is we invest directly in the well. We invest as close to the wellhead as possible. That’s where you’re going to make your money. You’re not going to make your own money buying Exxon mobile stock. You’re going make your money buying EOG stock or Diamondback stock. Love those companies, but you’re going to make your money investing close to wellhead. And that’s what we do. That’s what can help you out. So no great, great call out. I don’t want to just go, wait a minute. There’s ways to make money in a bearish environment. You just have to be smart about it. [00:15:52][25.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:53] Exactly. [00:15:53][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:54] As always guys, the news and analysis you just heard. Is brought to you by world’s greatest website, www.energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit the links in the description below for all links to the timestamps, links to articles, and specifically subscribe to the show on YouTube, subscribe to this show on Apple iTunes. Give us a follow there. Subscribe to our show on Spotify. Please leave comments there and subscribe to our sub stack, www.energynewsbeat.substack.com. That’s probably the best place to support the show. Stu does a great job of releasing two to three articles a week that really encompass the big themes that are going on. We also drop all of our podcasts there, which give a little bit of a breakdown. We just had a great, great podcast. So I highly, highly recommend everybody subscribe to the energy newsbeat.sub stack.com We’d also like to thank friends of the show Reese Energy Consulting for supporting the show guys. Reese Energy Consulting is the foremost midstream expert. Guys, if you had at all. Are dealing with issues in the midstream space, whether you’re an upstream company and need help with your first purchaser’s contract or renegotiating your gas contracts or figuring out where you’re gonna tie in your next pad because you’ve got multiple different options and you’re trying to break it all down. Reese Energy Consulting can help. If you’re in the mainstream space, I need an extra pair of hands, need some permitting or regulation help, or need some red team analysis on a final investment decision, guys. They have the team that can help you check out ReeseEnergyConsulting.com They have clients everywhere and all throughout the country from two people in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded companies in the world. So if you’re wondering, are you a good fit for them? The answer is yes. ReeseEnergyConsulting.com And finally guys, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com We are coming up on the end of the year. And I promise you guys, you do not wanna be paying money to Uncle Sam. You wanna keep as much money in your pocket. You wanna diversify your portfolio a little bit and you want to get some dividends. You can do that by investing in oil and gas. Check out investinoil.energynewsbeat.com Fill out our portfolio survey and our tax calculator. And guess what, you guys, you guys are gonna get and get a nice ebook that tells you here’s what you should look for when you invest in oil and gas. And also figure out what your tax burden is and figure out how much you might save relative to your tax burn if you did invest in Oil and Gas, guys. We practice what we preach here, guys, we do this stuff ourselves. Investin oil.energy newsbeat .com Don’t give your money to Uncle Sam. Figure out and find out if oil and gas investing is for you. Depending on if you qualify, we will, again, send you all that information and we may or may not point you in the right direction. Again, investin oil.energynewsbeat.com.[00:18:35][161.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:38] EU’s climate rules have caused a response from the US and Qatar issuing trade threats. You gotta love a good trade threat going on this morning. In an escalating tension over global energy trade, the European Union’s push for stringent climate sustainability regulations has drawn sharp rebukes from major LNG suppliers, the United States and Qatar. Holy smokes, the CSDD, the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which is a crock of carbon taxes waiting to happen, is absolutely despicable. This directive, seen by critics as a regulatory overreach, applies to both the EU and non-EU firms operating in the block. This is absolutely hilarious. US LNG exporters and US Qatar energy. This was funny. I put this article out. It is absolutely hilarious when you take a look at projections for the US for 2025 US volumes could hold steady or rise around 50 to 60 BCM given the expanding export capacity and the US is expected to supply up to 70% of the Europe’s LNG. Now, remember the EU has just signed on on a deal where they are looking at getting rid of all Russian gas. Go figure this one out, but. Go ahead, get rid of all Russian gas. That’s 19% of your import energy right now. So go ahead and get yourself off of that. But then you’re going to try and tax, put a carbon tax on Qatar and the United States. This has got a one-way ticket to a disaster for the EU. If you think the failure of the Germany’s economy is a litmus test or a warning bell for what’s going on in the EU. It is. [00:20:42][124.5]
[00:20:43] Permian Basin Reliability Plan will cost every customer in the Urquhart region. This is near to dear to me in my heart since this is from Texas. This is article from Joanna on the Substack and we recommend subscribing it. The note is in the article for you to go subscribe to her Substack. Subscribe to our Substack, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. It is a great resource for you and let’s take a look at this article. Electricity is to modern civilization is what blood is to the human body a quote from energy expert Lars I can I don’t want to butcher his name I’ve reached out to him to get him on the podcast and I’m trading emails with him right now. The truth is, much of the ERCOT grid has clogged arteries as much as we do, due to bad decisions. Corporate art, political actors, or false pretenses at job creation and tax revenues have driven what is now, despite rush for more gains, initiating a reliability for all through massive transmission lines. And fishbone hearing across the country, it represents the guise of improving our grid health and future needs, but it will be off the backs of customers with little say in decisions that have already been made at the top. Bad decisions to the patch to the last bad decisions. This is really an important thing. Many of you have been reading about the transmission lines in the ERCOT, but what you are thinking, it really doesn’t concern me. They aren’t near me. Most people just want to flip the switch and the lights work. It just needs to happen. After all that is a service we pay for and that’s a service we expect. That’s where you’re wrong. This project affects us all in caps. Everyone with an electric meter will pay. The original price estimate of $33 billion will cost another $10 to $20 a month depending on how they want to recover their investment. And you know how estimates are it’ll likely add up to be 50 to 60 dollars more on your bill every month that’s pretty big we’ve got to get to a point you’ve got ai data centers coming across if you’re building an ai data center and you need power give me a call i know people we can figure it out i can refer you to people to help design the power coming into it absolutely love those kind of discussions every day but if you are sitting here wondering we’ve be able to figure out why is it that as soon as you put a wind farm or solar panel on a grid, ERCOT has about 92 gigawatts of steady power that they have to provide. But we have over 180 gigawattes of nameplate capacity because of wind and solar. That is a huge chunk that we’ve to pay extra for, add in another $3,000. Point five billion dollars i believe what the number is for the transmission lines to get the wind farms from west texas to east texAS and then add this money in on it then you have all the data centers coming in this makes my poor head hurt trying to get a crayon from osu to try to And the only way that this happens is that the consumers pay more. And we become like New York or California. Do you remember that great commercial New York city? Everybody in Texas is going to be going, we’re like California. We’re going to have high energy prices. So this is a great article. And I want to give Joanna a total shout out for this article. She did a great job. [00:24:31][228.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:31] Gavin Newsom signs a bill allowing California utility companies to draw funding from State Wildfire Fund. This has corruption written all over it. In a move that has sparked widespread criticism, Governor Newsom has signed a historic package of bipartisan legislation aimed at addressing California’s escalating challenges among the provisions in the replenishment and expansion of the California wildfire fund effectively allowing utility companies like Southern California Edison to access the $21 billion fund, half of which is funded by state taxpayers to cover costs related to wildfires and fines. That’s the critical part. When the utilities are wrong and they’ve been fined in the past, they can now access state taxes that they then get reimbursed by federal funds and they can do this. This is almost like the health care issue that Gavin Newsom and everybody is. They have now figured out ways that they are taking and manipulating health care in California and they’re investing billions of dollars they’re taking from the federal government and then putting it into their health care system, this is the exact same thing. And as a US taxpayer, President Trump, you need to shut down all funds going to California and they can’t get their corrupt act together. They need a whole new government in California. California is now a national security risk and Governor Newsom is one. A hundred percent to blame for him being a national security risk. You’re taking a look at he’s the greatest California used to be the greatest state in the, in the whole United States. And now it is number one in so many bad categories. This is a horrible problem. [00:24:31][0.0][1460.9]
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