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Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] What the U.S. Government shutdown means for the U-S energy markets. Next on the Energy Newsbeat standup. [00:00:05][5.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:13] U.S. Government shutdown leaves energy markets on edge. What investors should know. This is very important. Let’s have a moment of silence for the shutdown. Okay, thank you very much. The U.S. Federal government has entered a shutdown on October 1st after Congress failed to pass a stopgap funding bill amid partisan divisions between Republicans and Democrats. And the crowd went wild. I voted for this kind of fun thing. I’ll tell you what. You can’t buy this kind entertainment. It has sidelined several key energy-related agencies. But the EIA has already come out and said, Michael, that they will go ahead and be updating for the near term. So the over and under on how long this is going to last, the energy department is still open for business. [00:00:59][45.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:00] Well, of course, it’s only a partial shutdown. The whole government isn’t shut down. The military is still getting paid certain things like that. The markets don’t even really care. I mean, the markets are actually up today, which is kind of hilarious. Goes to show you what people think about the markets or how the government impacts the markets. Maybe they’re more of a non-factor than they are a big factor. I think the interesting thing to point out, Stu, is what does this mean for investors and specifically the energy market? I don’t know how much. I do think that, you know, you put in here Bank of America analysts kind of are projecting that each week of the shutdown could save somewhere between 6,000 to 12,000 barrels per day. Is that going to do anything to margins? No, prices are already down today. While market confidence might be down, I don t necessarily think much happens with energy. But you’re right. I guess this is what we voted for. Are you back? [00:01:55][55.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:55] And especially here’s where it gets dicey. And that’s because you look at that one. Let me read this cost savings opportunities, doge led cuts in focus, because all of a sudden the Democrats left the door open for the bull in the China room with the hair. We got to get a meme of that of a bull with a Trump hairstyle cut running through a China shop because now Trump can take all of the doge cuts that were sitting out there that they couldn’t do anything with. They can lay people off. They can fire people. They can go through. And he’s already turned them loose. So the longer the Dems play stupid. The more cuts President Trump is going to be able to do. This is actually a very good thing. [00:02:40][45.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:41] Well, let’s hope. All right, let s move to the next one. [00:02:43][2.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:43] Let’s go to the next one. Gold revaluation imminent. U.S. Treasury hoards top $1 trillion for the first time. But what do investors think? I think it’s a great thing. In a milestone that’s sending ripples through the financial market, the U. S. Treasury gold reserves had surpassed $1 trillion in market for the 1st time ever. This is pretty crazy when you consider it’s now $3,800 per ounce since October 25, 2025. That’s. Today, when you take a look at the feds role in the monetary pump problems, they’ve caused a lot of this problem. And I couldn’t agree more that we need a new way to deal with the Fed. We can corral the Fed and get them to do what they’re supposed to do. This would really make a difference. But the Treasury. Getting ahold of this and then you take a look at the two charts market value. There’s a chart there I got from zero edge hats off to them. But you take. A look at. The other chart from Bloomberg that’s in here. Take a look. Of gold in there. That makes me feel a lot better for hope for the U. S. Dollar is remaining the currency because when the world currency was the British per sterling pound, you know, they lost it because of bad policies. And it’s the bad policies that we’re at now that could cause us to be lost as the world’s currency. [00:04:09][86.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:10] Absolutely. I think that’s why gold stocks have crushed it. Our good friends, Carl and Wasif over at Samaria partners. Their ETF is crushing it. Trust me. I have a little bit of that in my portfolio. Doing really well, guys. Have you recommend checking them out? But I think you know, you mentioned why gold is becoming important. Well, I think, you know any time inflation goes up, any time, you know, the market becomes frothy, gold is seen much like Bitcoin is sort of that safe haven asset. So I think what you’re seeing around the country is people are around. Really, the globe is people saying, well, we need to add more gold to our balance sheet, and it’s pretty unbelievable. Considering what the Federal Reserve is trying to do. I love this. You bring up the gold to oil ratio, which is a measure of how many barrels of oil to one ounce of gold buys has fluctuated from 2015 to 2025. It averaged about 19 to 20 dip to about 10 during the oil price spikes of 2022 when they were above $100 a barrel during the Ukraine conflict have climbed to periods above 30 in oil oversupply or weak demand. And as of August, 2024, that ratio stood at about 31. [00:05:18][67.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:19] Now let’s throw this ugly baby on the doorstep. When you throw the ugly baby, on the doorstep, China, China has been buying gold hand over fist and oil. So when you take a look at China’s got some serious problems and everything else, they are also attributing. So we’ve got a huge chunk in there and take a look at that. China has got 2.3 thousand tons of gold, but they have been buying more as a percentage than any of the others. Russia has a better mine than anybody else. And they’ve got a better, they’re lucky enough to have actually decent gold mines. So pretty cool stuff. [00:05:56][37.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:56] Gold, we’ve got a few of our listeners I know that have the gold bug themselves. Again, I do think we’re going to continue to see the gold markets and things associated with the gold markets and mining stock continue to increase, be a great place to stash some cash. [00:06:07][10.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:08] Speaking of finance here, let’s go to Wall Street. Wall Street rediscovers oil and gas after Trump’s trounce on climate and green energy at the UN. Shark Week at the U.N. Was an absolute blast. If you can’t imagine President Trump in a shark outfit at the podium for the U-N, that was a beautiful day. In a bold address to the United Nations General Assembly last week, President Trump lambasted international climate agreements and green energy initiative, calling them job killing schemes that hinder economic growth and energy independence. Trump’s speech when echoed his administration’s pro-fossil fuel stance has set ripples through the global markets. And guess what’s happening? I said, well, wait a minute, let’s take a look at this. And what is happening at the difference that I put a list in here, the top 15 oil and gas performing stocks. And we’ve got S&M Energy, SM Energy Corporation, not S&N. We’ve got Texas Pacific, Permian Resources, Conoco. The list is in there for you to go take a look at them. But I also have the utility stocks. And when you take a look at this versus what comparison to the wind and solar comparison stock, it is amazingly different. There is almost no money being made in wind and No, I’m [00:07:29][81.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:28] No, absolutely, because they specifically what we saw with the big, beautiful bill. And I think people are on that. I do find it interesting. You go look at who these top performing oil and gas stocks are, SM, Texas Pacific land, Permian Resources, Conoco Phillips, Devon Energy. They are literally all Permian Basin, core, core Permian company. So if it goes to show you, that’s still where investors are looking to throw their money at. [00:07:50][21.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:51] So let’s go to the next one here. We’ve got a big question coming around the corner. Big oil is getting leaner and meaner and leaner and AI is having an impact. I’m going to say leaner and meanier because I think we’re going to come out of this and here’s a little bit in here. In a rapidly environment involving an energy landscape, oil major companies are shedding weight to stay competitive and fluctuating crude prices, mergers, ExxonMobil are leading the charge with significant workforce reductions. Exxon alone is 2000, about 3% of its staff building on a 19% head-cop drop since 2014. I’ve got a chart in here with the top ones that are laying off people. Chevron’s 2-3,000, Conoco Phillips is up to 25%. Global workforce around 3,250. Total Energies, no new layoffs. But you got to love that. But I really got tickled at total. Let me go on a total rant here for a sec. They said, oh, by the way, we’re getting rid of all of our solar in the United States and they turned around and bought all these natural gas assets. You got to love that. So anyway, when you take a look at, I had a real question on this. A key question is, where are these cuts landing? Corporate offices or rugged oil field offices? Data from the announcements point to heavier toll on white collar roles, for instance. BP cuts target corporate white collar jobs. Restructure and emphasize office-based functions in Canada and Europe. Conoco and Chevron plan to lean toward administrative support roles. Michael, this is about how AI is really coming of age and you’re able to take a, let’s say you’re in the field and you’ve got well logs you got to look at. Well log analyzation is important, but you got have a knowledgeable set of eyeballs on there or you’re going to have rig guys, you’re gonna have. Pumps still need to work, electricians. The military needs 600 welders today. You can go get a job in the military right now with a welder. So there’s gonna be jobs, but I think AI is having a significant impact. Now, is it going to impact the economy? No, I think that these are kind of jobs that if you got to be able to either retire early or you’re gonna have to go learn how to do AI and find something else to do. [00:10:11][140.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:12] Yeah, I’m not gonna push back on the, I think it’s a death by a thousand cuts here. I think corporate big oil has probably gotten a little too, you know, grizzle around the edges. You know how you kind of trim the fat around the edges when you get a stake. I think there’s a little bit of that that’s happened over the years with these corporate jobs. I mean, you’ve got three people all doing the exact same thing. You know, one person’s checking the other person is. I think is a little, I think people are also realizing one, what. After you cut oil field service jobs, where the only place you can cut is the office. So if you’re trying to save hardcore GNA, do I think AI has a little bit to do with it? It might have a small role. I’m gonna not necessarily agree and say, AI is the reason they’re targeting these corporate jobs. I think what they’re realizing is that the bloat that they’ve accumulated doesn’t quite match the price environment that they’re in. And at the end of the day, these executives have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders in order to make sure things run lean and mean. So I think it’s, do I think AI is helping these oil and gas companies perform? Absolutely. I think it’s one of the big reasons why these oil and gas company will continue to stay profitable. Now, the question is, is that the reason why they’re laying off folks? I don’t think so. It may be on the list, but it’s not the top list. [00:11:23][71.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:24] I think that for the people that are remaining, you had better know how to use AI because they’re gonna ask you to do three people’s jobs. So you’d better have a way to get things done. So the answer is if you’re not being laid off because of AI, you better know AI because you’re gonna have to do three people job. [00:11:43][19.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:45] But with that, guys, let’s jump over and talk oil prices. But before let’s pay the bills. As always guys, the news and analysis you just heard. Is brought to you by world’s greatest website, www.energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit the links in the description below for all links to the timestamps, links to articles, and specifically subscribe to the show on YouTube, subscribe to this show on Apple iTunes. Give us a follow there. Subscribe to our show on Spotify. Please leave comments there and subscribe to our sub stack, www.energynewsbeat.substack.com. That’s probably the best place to support the show. Stu does a great job of releasing two to three articles a week that really encompass the big themes that are going on. We also drop all of our podcasts there, which give a little bit of a breakdown. We just had a great, great podcast. So I highly, highly recommend everybody subscribe to the energy newsbeat.sub stack.com We’d also like to thank friends of the show Reese Energy Consulting for supporting the show guys. Reese Energy Consulting is the foremost midstream expert. Guys, if you had at all. Are dealing with issues in the midstream space, whether you’re an upstream company and need help with your first purchaser’s contract or renegotiating your gas contracts or figuring out where you’re gonna tie in your next pad because you’ve got multiple different options and you’re trying to break it all down. Reese Energy Consulting can help. If you’re in the mainstream space, I need an extra pair of hands, need some permitting or regulation help, or need some red team analysis on a final investment decision, guys. They have the team that can help you check out ReeseEnergyConsulting.com They have clients everywhere and all throughout the country from two people in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded companies in the world. So if you’re wondering, are you a good fit for them? The answer is yes. ReeseEnergyConsulting.com And finally guys, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com We are coming up on the end of the year. And I promise you guys, you do not wanna be paying money to Uncle Sam. You wanna keep as much money in your pocket. You wanna diversify your portfolio a little bit and you want to get some dividends. You can do that by investing in oil and gas. Check out investinoil.energynewsbeat.com Fill out our portfolio survey and our tax calculator. And guess what, you guys, you guys are gonna get and get a nice ebook that tells you here’s what you should look for when you invest in oil and gas. And also figure out what your tax burden is and figure out how much you might save relative to your tax burn if you did invest in Oil and Gas, guys. We practice what we preach here, guys, we do this stuff ourselves. Investin oil.energy newsbeat .com Don’t give your money to Uncle Sam. Figure out and find out if oil and gas investing is for you. Depending on if you qualify, we will, again, send you all that information and we may or may not point you in the right direction. Again, investin oil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:14:32][167.3]
[00:14:34] I mean, Stu, oil prices have really been on a slog really since we last recorded our show. There were reports that OPEC may raise oil output by 500,000 barrels in November. We did see today crude oil inventories rise by about 1.8 million barrels in accordance with the government shutdowns with the EIA at least still working. I mean, we’ve still got oil prices sitting about 60, 61.50 as we record this right now, natural gas trading at about $2.95. Nothing really to report. I think the softness in prices has a lot to do with this expected OPEC raise. Now, if you guys listen to last show, we talked about how OPECs throwing up their hands and saying, well, we don’t actually have any spare capacity. So I think it’s a little bit of a game of he said, she said, and the real question is, okay, OPECC wants to raise, but will they be able to? And what’s the fallout from all of this from that? And as I mentioned, the EIA came out with that 1.8 million barrel build. We also did see. This morning, Case Vandehoff, who’s the CEO of Diamondback came out and says that he’s predicting oil production growth will stall if prices stay at this $60 per barrel as fewer drilling sites are still profitable. I think we all knew that, but I think it’s fascinating. To dial that in and trust me, I mean, we’re, you know, we look at deals every single day, Stu, and it’s becoming harder and harder to find deals that make sense. Now, there still are deals. I think what you’re seeing is people moved to longer laterals. We’ve been seeing a lot of stuff in the Bakken. That’s three, four mile laterals, which is pretty unbelievable, but it’s gonna be very interesting, I think, to see how all of this stuff plays out. So we’ll be watching it very close, but that’s really all I’ve got to kind of, you know all quiet on the Western front from the oil and gas side. It’ll be interesting to see how things plays out, but we’ve had a great week so far. What, who else do we have coming up on the podcast this week? What’s next on the menu? [00:16:22][107.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:16:23] Let’s take a look here. We just had Mikey drop out there today. That was an outstanding one. That was a great one, data centers. Yeah, you bet, AI and data centers, and it was a lot of fun. [00:16:34][10.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:34] No, that was a really good one. Everybody go check that out. Please go just subscribe to our YouTube. Subscribe to our sub stack. Really helps us out here, guys, but we’ll finish up this week. We’ve got a great Saturday weekly recap. Highly recommend checking that. I think we’ll be back in the chair on Monday. So we’re with that, guys. We might as well let you get out of here, get back to work. Appreciate everybody. We’ll see you next week. [00:16:34][0.0][975.5]
