Iran\’s Impact on Oil Mounts as US Warships Draw Near

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, the arrival of U.S. warships near Iranian waters has sent ripples through global energy markets. President Donald Trump\’s administration has bolstered its military presence, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, amid threats of potential strikes against Iran following recent unrest and proxy conflicts. This buildup, […]

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Cracks Are Emerging in Iran’s Once-Resilient Oil Sector

Iran’s crude production is expected to remain stable near 3.2 million bpd, with protests posing limited short-term risk to upstream operations. Heavy discounting to China and costly sanctions-evading logistics mean Iran captures only about two-thirds of benchmark oil prices. Chronic underinvestment, late-life fields, and the near depletion of the National Development Fund are undermining the […]

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How Are the Oil Markets Shifting in Real Time?

As we kick off 2026, the global oil landscape is a whirlwind of geopolitical maneuvers, supply gluts, and shifting alliances. With Brent crude hovering around $59 per barrel and a projected surplus of 1-3.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) looming large, markets are bracing for volatility. Non-OPEC production surges, OPEC+ unwinding voluntary cuts, and fresh […]

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U.S. Seizure of Russian-Flagged Tanker Sends Message to the Shadow Fleet

The seizure of the Marinera challenges the legal and practical value of Russia’s effort to shield shadow fleet vessels through rapid reflagging. U.S. actions signal a tougher, more expansive approach to enforcing oil sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The incident risks further diplomatic fallout with Moscow amid already strained negotiations over Ukraine and global […]

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Has the Shadow Fleet Met Its Match? Will OPEC+ Be The Beneficiary? 

The global energy landscape has long been shadowed by the so-called \”shadow fleet\”—a network of aging, often poorly maintained tankers that evade international sanctions to transport oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. These vessels, frequently operating under opaque ownership and false flags, have allowed sanctioned regimes to […]

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