Will Iraq leave OPEC, or will OPEC allow Iraq to double exports within six years?

Iraq is pushing aggressively to more than double its oil production capacity, targeting 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd) within six years—up from roughly 4 million bpd before the recent Iran-related regional conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping. On August 21, 2026, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the goal at the Baghdad Dialog conference and […]

Continue Reading

Ukraine Hits Lukoil Refinery. How Degraded is the Russian Refinery Capacity?

On the morning of August 21, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia’s Perm Krai, more than 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Thick black smoke rose over the facility, one of Russia’s 10 largest refineries with a design capacity of around 13 million metric tons of crude per year (approximately 262,000 […]

Continue Reading

Will Choking Iran’s Economy End the War, or Are They Too Resilient?

In an August 20, 2026, Bloomberg Opinion column, Javier Blas argued that “choking Iran’s economy is the least bad way to end the war.” Drawing on firsthand observations of sanctions-induced collapse in Iraq, Venezuela, and Cuba—worthless currencies, skyrocketing inflation, and soaring unemployment—Blas noted that pure economic pressure has historically failed to force political change. U.S. […]

Continue Reading

Are we about to see paper catch up to physical delivery on oil?

The oil market is sending mixed signals that traders and energy watchers cannot ignore. Futures prices—the “paper” side of the trade—have been surprisingly restrained even as physical barrels face ongoing constraints from the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel cracks are screaming tightness downstream, China has stepped back as the world’s swing buyer, […]

Continue Reading

China impacted the global oil supply, and moved the crisis downstream. Diesel is the next inflationary problem for the Trump Administration.

Brent crude hovering near $91 a barrel might look manageable on a trading screen. Jeff Currie, the veteran commodities strategist now at Carlyle Group, argues that focus is dangerously misplaced. “Nobody on the planet Earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. “Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look […]

Continue Reading