Iran appears to have increased flaring to keep the oil and gas fields stable to avoid shut-ins

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Clark Savage164

Satellite observations from the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines reveal a notable divergence in upstream gas flaring trends across the Middle East in early 2026. While countries like Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia showed sharp declines in flaring activity amid regional conflict, Iran registered a net increase of 84 MW in summed pass-normalized radiative heat—a direct proxy for flared gas volume—across its changed upstream flares.

This increase, detected via NOAA’s VIIRS Nightfire satellite data since January 2025 (with major step changes concentrated in March 2026), contrasts with regional reductions and aligns with reports of intensified flaring at key Iranian sites, including Kharg Island and fields in Khuzestan province.
Recent viral videos from Khuzestan, captured as recently as April 26-27, 2026, show intense gas flares lighting up the night sky amid heavy smoke plumes. While some online commentary has framed these as routine associated gas flaring (which has long been common in Iran’s oil fields), the satellite evidence points to an uptick in volume and activity precisely during a period of export disruptions.

Why the increase? Avoiding shut-ins in low-pressure reservoirs

Iran’s oil fields, particularly the mature, low-pressure basins in Khuzestan and elsewhere, present unique operational challenges. Many rely on associated natural gas reinjection to maintain reservoir pressure. Shutting in wells—even temporarily—carries significant risks: water migration into the formation, pressure collapse, paraffin or asphalt buildup, and corrosion of equipment. Restarting can be slow, costly, or in some cases, result in permanent production losses estimated at hundreds of thousands of barrels per day if wells are capped for extended periods.

Analysts and industry observers have repeatedly warned that Iran cannot simply “turn off the tap.” With U.S. naval blockade measures restricting exports through the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island (Iran’s primary export terminal), crude and condensate have nowhere to go. Onshore and floating storage capacity—estimated variably at 30-90 million barrels—is rapidly filling. Reports from mid-to-late April 2026 indicated a potential “two-week limit” or “matter of days” before forced production cuts or shut-ins would become inevitable.
By continuing production and flaring excess associated gas rather than shutting wells, operators appear to be prioritizing field stability. This strategy buys time while avoiding the long-term reservoir damage that could follow widespread shut-ins. Bloomberg and other outlets have linked the broader regional flaring spike directly to facility responses to blocked exports, storage constraints, and conflict-related disruptions.
A clear signal of full (or filling) storage

The flaring increase is not occurring in a vacuum. Multiple independent sources in April 2026 highlighted Iran’s storage crunch:

  • Kharg Island storage is nearing capacity, forcing operators to either flare, reduce flows gradually, or risk permanent well damage.
  • Estimates of surplus production overwhelm available tanks within days to weeks under the export blackout.
  • Reactivation of older tankers as emergency floating storage, underscoring the desperation to keep oil moving (or at least not shutting in upstream).
    Source: The Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines

This pattern strongly suggests that Iran’s storage infrastructure is at or near full capacity due to the effective halt in exports. Flaring serves as a pressure-relief valve to sustain field output without immediate reservoir harm.

Iran has historically been one of the world’s top gas flarers (second only to Russia in many recent years), with volumes around 17-20 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually in the mid-2020s, often rising in tandem with oil production. Pre-conflict data from the World Bank and EDF already showed Iran increasing flaring by about 12% in 2024 alongside higher output, due in part to limited associated-gas capture infrastructure. The 2026 satellite-detected step-up adds to this baseline amid wartime constraints.

Implications for energy markets and the environment
Sustained higher flaring means elevated greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂ and unburned methane) and wasted energy resources at a time when Iran is already under economic pressure. It also underscores the fragility of Iran’s upstream operations: low-pressure fields make the country particularly vulnerable to export disruptions, with recovery potentially taking months or years even after a ceasefire.
For global markets, any prolonged shutdowns or permanent damage could tighten oil supply further once tensions ease. Conversely, if flaring allows production to continue longer than expected, it could delay the full impact of the blockade.
The Payne Institute’s VIIRS analysis provides hard satellite evidence that Iran chose (or was forced to) ramp up flaring while neighbors scaled back—consistent with a strategy of keeping wells online to protect long-term reservoir integrity in the face of storage saturation.

Appendix: Sources and Links

All data and analysis drawn from publicly available satellite observations, industry reports, and contemporaneous news as of April 27, 2026. Flaring volumes are estimates based on VIIRS radiative heat proxies; absolute bcm figures for Q1-Q2 2026 are not yet finalized in public datasets.

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