Thanksgiving fares are up 31% and Christmas fares 23% from last year as jet fuel tops $4.90 a gallon. Airlines are passing on part of the bill and trimming their least profitable flights.
If you are flying home for Thanksgiving this year, brace yourself. Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index puts the average good-deal domestic round trip (the 10th-percentile fare travelers can book) at $402 for Thanksgiving, up 31% ($95) from last year, and $452 for Christmas, up 23% ($85). For a family of four, that is about $380 more at Thanksgiving and $340 more at Christmas (ENB calculation).
“Airfares right now are at what we see as a 10-year high because of the high cost of jet fuel,” Hopper lead economist Hayley Berg told NPR. She added that holiday travel is “really sticky,” so most families will grit their teeth and pay.
The reason is in the fuel tank. The Argus US Jet Fuel Index, the average for Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York that airlines watch, was $4.76–$4.77 a gallon on Oct. 19–20, then hit $4.90 on Thursday, Oct. 22, up from $2.41 a year earlier: more than double (Argus via Airlines for America; ENB calculation). NPR reported the Argus average “topped $4.75 per gallon this week,” close to an all-time high (NPR).
Government data tell the same story. EIA’s Gulf Coast jet fuel spot price was $4.63 on Oct. 20, versus $2.09 a year ago, and about 9% below its record of $5.07 set on April 28, 2022. September averaged $4.39, the highest monthly average in EIA records back to 1990 (EIA; ENB calculation). Jet fuel, airlines’ biggest expense after labor, has climbed faster than crude as the Iran war disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC).
Airlines protect their margins
The big carriers say they are absorbing much of the hit. American paid $3.85 a gallon in the third quarter, up from $2.37, and expects about $4.70 in the fourth, “nearly double” a year ago, an about $2.8 billion increase in fourth-quarter fuel expense versus a year earlier (American). United paid $3.90, up from $2.43 (United), and won back 72% of its higher fuel costs through revenue (United call transcript). Delta expects to absorb a $6 billion increase in fuel costs this year (Delta).
They are also trimming flights that don’t pay. “There’s some marginal routes that don’t make sense in a higher fuel environment, so we cut them,” United CFO Mike Leskinen said in September; American said it was cutting some December flights (Fortune). American still plans to fly 5.5% to 6.5% more seat miles this quarter than a year ago but expects slower growth in 2027 (American). “In a high-cost environment you cannot grow your way out of it,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said (Reuters). Fewer seats help keep fares high.
Shoppers feel it already. The airline fares index in the Consumer Price Index was up 22.4% in September from a year earlier (BLS). Chris Sununu, who leads the trade group Airlines for America, told CNBC that airlines are “eating most of that cost” but some “has to be passed on to the customer” (NPR).
How to save
Hopper says to book before Halloween and stay flexible. Leaving Monday, Nov. 23, averages about $370, roughly $50 less than Wednesday. Coming home Sunday, Nov. 29, averages $604, versus about $350 on Monday or Tuesday (Hopper).
| Stu’s Take (opinion)
Families are paying $95 more a ticket to get home for Thanksgiving. That hurts, but the airlines didn’t invent it. Jet fuel at $4.90 a gallon, up from $2.41 a year ago, did. United has won back only 72% of its higher fuel bill, and Delta is eating a $6 billion fuel increase. Airlines will protect their margins by flying fewer marginal routes, and that keeps fares up. The real fix is more refining and more supply, because when the Gulf Coast averages a record $4.39 for a month, families pay at the ticket counter. Until then, book early and skip the $604 Sunday return. |
Sources
- NPR: With jet fuel prices near a record, holiday airfares soar higher (Oct. 23, 2026)
- Hopper: 2026 Holiday Travel Index (Sept. 25, 2026)
- Airlines for America: Argus US Jet Fuel Index, daily jet fuel spot prices (accessed Oct. 23, 2026)
- S. Energy Information Administration: U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price, daily and monthly
- S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026, Table 2 (Oct. 14, 2026)
- American Airlines: third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (SEC, Oct. 22, 2026)
- United Airlines: third-quarter 2026 results (Oct. 20, 2026)
- The Motley Fool: United (UAL) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (Oct. 21, 2026)
- Delta Air Lines: September quarter 2026 financial results
- Reuters via The Spokesman-Review: Delta warns of more airline capacity restraint as fuel shock hits profits (Oct. 9, 2026)
- Fortune: American, United and Southwest are all cutting “marginal routes” as jet fuel prices spike (Sept. 18, 2026)
- CNBC: Why airfare is rising as airline profits get squeezed (Oct. 5, 2026)
Note: The Argus price is cited as the “Argus US Jet Fuel Index” as Argus requires. Hopper fares are a demand-weighted average of the 10th percentile of bookable prices, a “good deal” measure, not what every traveler pays.
