Iran Called U.S. Claims of Qatar Talks a “Pure Lie.” Oil Bounced Off Two-Month Lows. Gasoline Stayed Under $4.

Crude Oil Crude Oil News Diesel Downstream Energy Crisis Gasoline Geopolitical Geopolitical International News Political Top News U.S. Energy News US Energy News
Clark Savage15

AAA’s national regular average stayed under $4 on Nov. 11, at $3.9429 a gallon, after falling to $3.9788 on Nov. 10 for the first time since July 19. Diesel is $6.1306. Crude’s November slide was built on hopes the war was winding down. After Mohsen Rezaei’s denial of U.S. claims of talks, that trade is at risk — but no source has estimated what today’s bounce does to the pump.

Today’s news is a denial and a bounce, not a cheaper fill-up.

If you buy gasoline this week, the national number has done something it had not done since July: it is under $4. AAA’s national average for regular fell below $4 on Tuesday, Nov. 10, to $3.9788, for the first time since July 19, and slipped again to $3.9429 on Nov. 11. Diesel is $6.1306. Those are official daily national averages, not a forecast of what your corner station will charge tomorrow, and not a cents-per-gallon effect from today’s move in crude.

Crude is bouncing anyway. After Iran’s senior security official denied that talks with Washington are under way, OilPrice.com reported Brent crude at about $93.90 a barrel at 10:18 a.m. CST (11:18 a.m. ET), up nearly 3%, with West Texas Intermediate at $87.98, up nearly 2%. Heating oil, the U.S. diesel futures benchmark, was up 4.1% in that snapshot. CNBC tied Wednesday’s gain to a different remark: Iran’s security chief saying Tehran would not let enriched nuclear material leave the country. CNBC said the talks denial had already pared losses on Tuesday. Brent traded as high as $94.73 before paring gains; at 1:56 p.m. CST (2:56 p.m. ET) it was $92.40, up $0.91, or 0.99%, on Yahoo Finance, and WTI was $86.26, up $0.22, or 0.26%. Official Nov. 11 settlements had not yet posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened for this update. Those are intraday prices, not a settlement. They should be refreshed at publication.

What Rezaei actually said

On Tuesday, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen television that U.S. claims of continuing talks, and of a meeting in Qatar, were false. In the English wording carried by Mehr News and Press TV, he said: “The Americans’ claim about continuing negotiations or holding a meeting in Qatar is a pure lie.” He added, “I emphasize that at the present moment, we are not conducting any negotiations with the Americans, and there are no negotiations between us and Washington.” Mehr and Press TV reported that he said such claims were meant to reduce economic pressure and lower oil prices. The Doha-meeting talk traced to Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, who said Monday in Ankara that Qatar would host Vice President JD Vance and Rezaei next week, according to the Türkiye newspaper as reported by Iran International. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also denied a planned meeting. Qatar’s foreign ministry says its mediation is ongoing after Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Vance and President Trump on Monday.

That denial matters because the November slide in crude was built on hopes the war was winding down. Both OilPrice and CNBC report that Brent has fallen about 21% and WTI about 17% since the start of November. Today’s bounce is a rebound from two-month lows, according to CNBC. Both benchmarks settled Tuesday at their lowest since Aug. 31, Brent at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04, Yonhap reported. It is not a reversal of that month-to-date decline. It is also not, on its own, a sourced change in what you pay at the pump. Pump prices lag wholesale moves, and no source in these reports estimates a cents-per-gallon effect from Wednesday’s bounce.

AAA national retail averages dated Nov. 11, 2026, the second day under $4 after Nov. 10 ended a stretch at or above $4 that began July 20: regular gasoline $3.9429 a gallon and diesel $6.1306. Gasoline stayed under $4 and is down about 42 cents from a month ago, but still about 87 cents above last year. Diesel remains above $6 and about $2.38 above a year ago. These are national averages, not a forecast of a local price and not a sourced effect of today’s crude bounce

The shipping risk did not take the day off

CNBC reported little sign that attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are easing. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 ships attacked in October, the most in any month since the war began, according to CNBC and OilPrice, which both cite the Institute’s data. We have not independently retrieved a Washington Institute release with that tally.

On Tuesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile 19 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman, at 1338 UTC. UKMTO said the crew was safe and no environmental impact had been reported; the master planned a damage assessment at first light. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two “violating” oil tankers suffered explosions on an “unauthorized” route in the strait. Xinhua and Mehr reported the IRGC as saying one vessel hit naval mines and the other caught fire after an incident. Those are IRGC claims. They should not be treated as the same event as the UKMTO report.

Even a diplomatic breakthrough would not flip a switch on physical barrels. LSEG Oil Research, in a Nov. 10 note quoted by CNBC, said: “Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk.”

Brent and WTI on Nov. 11, 2026. OilPrice.com reported Brent at about $93.90 a barrel at 10:18 a.m. CST (11:18 a.m. ET), up nearly 3%, and WTI at $87.98, up nearly 2%. Brent traded as high as $94.73 before paring gains; at 1:56 p.m. CST (2:56 p.m. ET) Yahoo Finance showed Brent at $92.40, up 0.99%, and WTI at $86.26, up 0.26%. Official Nov. 11 settlements had not yet posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened for this update. Both OilPrice and CNBC report Brent has fallen about 21% and WTI about 17% since the start of November; CNBC described a rebound from two-month lows. Both benchmarks settled Tuesday at their lowest since Aug. 31, Brent at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04, Yonhap reported. These are intraday prices, not a settlement, and should be refreshed at publication.

What this means for consumers and investors

For households, the useful facts are already on the board. Gasoline is under $4 and down about 42 cents from a month ago, but still about 87 cents above last year, using AAA’s table. Diesel remains above $6 and about $2.38 above a year ago. AAA lists the record national diesel average at $6.5276 on Sept. 22, 2026. OilPrice said pump prices were catching up with a slide in wholesale costs; AAA puts most of the decline on seasonal factors (cheaper winter-blend fuel, lower demand and refineries finishing maintenance) plus crude below $90. Heating-oil futures still jumped in Wednesday’s OilPrice snapshot. That split is the consumer story: the pump for regular is easing; diesel has not had the same relief.

What if talks do not start, and Hormuz attacks stay elevated? Then the November price slide, which was priced on de-escalation hopes, would be at risk of reversing. What if crude pushed back toward $100, or the war widened? Those are questions, not forecasts, and they are not a sourced estimate of your next fill-up. Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas, cited by OilPrice, called Brent at around $90 “an oddity,” too low if the United States and Iran escalate and too high if they sign a deal. We are not adopting that as a price target.

For investors, the “war is ending” trade is the one under review. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to “fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation,” as quoted by both OilPrice and CNBC. Traders also looked past an American Petroleum Institute report of a 9-million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending Nov. 6. That is an industry estimate. Official EIA weekly inventory data for that week is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 12, because Wednesday is Veterans Day.

The official outlook was already split

The government’s own outlook, published a day earlier, already drew a line between cheaper winter gas and still-tight refined fuels. The November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 10 with model inputs finalized Nov. 5 — so it does not specifically account for this week’s denial — raised the 2027 retail diesel forecast to $5.03 a gallon from $4.49, and gasoline to $3.73 from $3.56, because EIA now expects global refined-fuel supplies to stay tight through the end of 2027. It cut its November-through-March Henry Hub forecast 16% from last month, to an average $2.87 per million British thermal units, and sees 3,840 billion cubic feet of gas in storage at the end of November, 67 billion cubic feet more than the October outlook. It expects the Brent spot price, which EIA says averaged $124 in October, to average $104 in November and $99 in December and to remain near $100 for the rest of this year, then average $86 in 2027 as more Middle East oil flows and global inventories rebuild. Those are spot figures and run well above the futures prices quoted above. Continued shipping disruptions, EIA warns, could cause short-term price swings.

EIA’s November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 10, with model inputs finalized Nov. 5. EIA raised its 2027 retail diesel forecast to $5.03 a gallon from $4.49, and gasoline to $3.73 from $3.56. It cut the November-through-March Henry Hub forecast 16% from last month, to an average $2.87 per million British thermal units. EIA expects the Brent spot price, which it says averaged $124 in October, to average $104 in November and $99 in December and to remain near $100 for the rest of this year, then average $86 in 2027 as more Middle East oil flows and global inventories rebuild. Those are spot figures, not the futures prices quoted above, and they do not specifically account for this week’s comments.

The caveats that still sit on the table

No source we opened attaches a cents-per-gallon pump-price move to Wednesday’s crude bounce. We are not inventing one. AAA’s averages are national; your town can differ. Futures prices move through the session and should be refreshed at publish. The October tally of 37 ships attacked is the Washington Institute’s count as reported by CNBC and OilPrice, not a figure we pulled from a Washington Institute PDF. The mine and fire claims are the IRGC’s account. A deal, if one were reached, would still face the physical and insurance hurdles LSEG described. EIA’s 2027 pump-price forecasts are just that — forecasts, finished before this week’s comments.

Stu’s Take

Today’s bounce is not a new war, and it is not a sourced change at the pump. AAA’s national regular fell below $4 on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and stayed under on Nov. 11, at $3.9429; diesel is $6.1306. Gasoline is down about 42 cents from a month ago; diesel is still above $6 and about $2.38 above last year. Brent traded as high as $94.73 before paring gains, after a November slide of about 21% on de-escalation hopes. Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said the Americans’ claim of continuing negotiations or a Qatar meeting “is a pure lie.” The Washington Institute, as cited by CNBC and OilPrice, counted 37 ships attacked in October. LSEG says even a deal would still depend on mine clearance, insurance, and whether shipowners take the risk. EIA, in a forecast finished before this week’s comments, raised 2027 diesel to $5.03 and gasoline to $3.73, and cut winter Henry Hub to $2.87. Refresh the tape at publish.

As I have said on the podcast, do not think that the Strait of Hormuz and Iran is the cause of the diesel price increase. It was a catalyst. We got here by decades of Net Zero, Climate Fear mongering, and Green Energy Policies.

Diesel is the inflationary impact on consumers that the Fed cannot tackle. So if they raise rates, they will fall into a rescission trap.

Appendix A | Linked source list (accessed Nov. 11, 2026 CST)

Selected excerpts in Appendix B are short evidence pointers, not full reproductions. An access gap is not proof a document does not exist. Prices are timestamped to the sources named. Intraday futures prices are not settlements and should be refreshed at publication.

  1. OilPrice.com, Charles Kennedy, “Brent Jumps Nearly 3% as Iran Denies Any Talks With Washington,” Nov. 11, 2026, 10:30 a.m. CST (11:18 a.m. ET price stamp: Brent about $93.90, nearly +3%; WTI about $87.98, nearly +2%; heating oil +4.1%). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Jumps-3-to-94-as-Iran-Denies-Any-Talks-With-Washington.html
  2. CNBC, “Oil rises after Iran says no nuclear material will leave the country,” published Nov. 10, 2026, updated Nov. 11, 2026 (ties Wednesday’s rise to the enriched-material remark; says the talks denial pared losses Tuesday; 21%/17% November declines; two-month lows; 37 ships attacked in October, cited to the Washington Institute; UKMTO and IRGC incidents; verbatim LSEG Oil Research Nov. 10 note). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/11/oil-rises-from-two-month-low-as-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-iran-truce-hopes.html
  3. AAA Fuel Prices, national retail averages dated 11/11/26 (regular $3.9429; diesel $6.1306; prior-day, week-ago, month-ago, and year-ago comparisons; record diesel $6.5276 on Sept. 22, 2026). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://gasprices.aaa.com/
  4. AAA Oregon/Idaho, “National Average Price for Regular Gas Falls below $4 for First Time since July,” Nov. 10, 2026 (first day under $4 since July 19; yesterday’s $3.9788; seasonal-factor explanation). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://info.oregon.aaa.com/national-average-price-for-regular-gas-falls-below-4-for-first-time-since-july/
  5. CNBC, “U.S. gas prices fall below $4 for the first time since July,” Nov. 10, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/us-gas-prices-below-four-dollars.html
  6. Yahoo Finance, Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financial Futures (BZ=F), live quote $92.40, +$0.91 or +0.99%, as of 2:56:44 p.m. EST / 1:56 p.m. CST, Nov. 11, 2026, market open, pre-settlement not posted; day’s range $91.48–$94.73 (session high $94.73). Official Nov. 11 settlements had not yet posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened for this update. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ=F/
  7. Yahoo Finance, Crude Oil Dec 26 (CL=F), live quote $86.26, +$0.22 or +0.26%, as of 2:57:52 p.m. EST / 1:57 p.m. CST, Nov. 11, 2026, market open, pre-settlement not posted; day’s range $85.81–$88.73. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/
  8. Mehr News Agency, “Rezaei rejects Washington’s claim of talks with Iran as lies,” Nov. 10, 2026 (Al Mayadeen interview; exact English quotes). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://en.mehrnews.com/news/249312/Rezaei-rejects-Washington-s-claim-of-talks-with-Iran-as-lies
  9. Press TV, “Iran’s security chief: US claims of Qatar talks ‘pure lie,’ meant to lower oil prices,” Nov. 10, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/11/10/780426/us-claims-of-qatar-talks-are-a-pure-lie-meant-to-drop-oil-prices-iran-snsc-chief
  10. Al Jazeera, “Iran denies talks with US, says Hormuz will stay shut until demands are met,” Nov. 11, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/11/iran-denies-talks-with-us-says-hormuz-will-stay-shut-until-demands-are-met
  11. Iran International, “IRGC outlet denies planned Rezaei–Vance meeting in Doha,” Nov. 9, 2026 (Kalin, via the Türkiye newspaper, on a planned Qatar meeting; Tasnim denial). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.iranintl.com/en/202611093911
  12. Anadolu Agency, “Iran denies ongoing talks with US, planned meeting in Qatar,” Nov. 10, 2026 (Rezaei rejecting U.S. claims; Tasnim rendering “complete lies”; Araghchi also denied a planned meeting). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-denies-ongoing-talks-with-us-planned-meeting-in-qatar/4119411
  13. Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Foreign Ministry: Qatari Mediation Efforts Continue to Bridge Views Between Washington, Tehran,” Nov. 10, 2026 (PM met Vance and President Trump on Monday; mediation ongoing). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/2026/11/10/foreign-ministry–qatari-mediation-efforts-continue-to-bridge-views-between-washington–tehran
  14. Yonhap News, via Hanmi Ilbo, “International oil prices continue to decline… reaching their lowest level since August 31st,” Nov. 11, 2026, 8:17 a.m. (Tuesday, Nov. 10 settlements: January ICE Brent $91.49, down 1.17%; December NYMEX WTI $86.04, down 0.93%; both at their lowest since Aug. 31). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://en.hanmiilbo.kr/news/15697
  15. Sprague Energy, Oil MarketWatch, Nov. 11, 2026 (prior-session recap confirming the Tuesday settlements: December WTI down 81 cents at $86.04; January Brent down $1.08 at $91.49; both at their lowest since Aug. 31 for a second day). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.spragueenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Sprague-Oil-MarketWatch-11.11.26.pdf
  16. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, Warning 201-26, incident date Nov. 10, 2026, 1338 UTC (tanker struck by an unknown projectile 19 NM northeast of Lima, Oman). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261110-ukmto_warning_201_26.pdf
  17. Xinhua, “Iran’s IRGC says 2 tankers exploded on Hormuz Strait’s ‘unauthorized’ route,” Nov. 10, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://english.news.cn/20261110/5989d72ebcba45e1b11074ff1ec50940/c.html
  18. Mehr News Agency, “Two violating oil tankers set on fire in Strait of Hormuz,” Nov. 10, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://en.mehrnews.com/news/249305/Two-violating-oil-tankers-catch-fire-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, “EIA raises November natural gas storage forecast after warm start to month,” Nov. 10, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press594.php
  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2026, released Nov. 10, 2026; model inputs finalized Nov. 5, 2026. Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
  21. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Natural gas chapter (3,840 Bcf end-November storage, 67 Bcf above the October forecast; Nov.–March Henry Hub $2.87). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
  22. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report holiday schedule (next release Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET, because of the Veterans Day federal holiday). Access date: Nov. 11, 2026, CST. — https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

Appendix B | Key excerpts

Quotes below are short excerpts from official statements, outlooks, and contemporaneous reporting. They are evidence pointers, not complete documents.

Rezaei, on reports of talks or a Qatar meeting: “The Americans’ claim about continuing negotiations or holding a meeting in Qatar is a pure lie.”  (Mehr News Agency, Nov. 10, 2026, and Press TV, citing Rezaei’s Nov. 10 interview with Al Mayadeen TV)

Rezaei, on whether negotiations are under way: “I emphasize that at the present moment, we are not conducting any negotiations with the Americans, and there are no negotiations between us and Washington.”  (Mehr News Agency, Nov. 10, 2026, and Press TV, same interview)

LSEG Oil Research, on whether a deal would restore Hormuz flows: “Even in the event a deal is struck, an increase in flows through the waterway would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk.”  (LSEG Oil Research note, Nov. 10, 2026, as quoted by CNBC, Nov. 11, 2026. The LSEG note itself was not independently retrieved.)

UBS, on the price bounce: “fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation”  (Giovanni Staunovo, UBS, as quoted by OilPrice.com and CNBC, Nov. 11, 2026)

UKMTO, on the Nov. 10 tanker incident: “The Master of a Tanker reports being struck by an unknown projectile. The crew are safe and there is no environmental impact reported. Master will conduct damage assessment at first light.”  (UKMTO Warning 201-26, Nov. 10, 2026, 1338 UTC, 19 NM northeast of Lima, Oman)

EIA STEO, on 2027 retail diesel and gasoline: “EIA forecasts that diesel will average $5.03 per gallon, up from $4.49 per gallon in the October forecast, and gasoline will average $3.73 per gallon, up from $3.56 per gallon.”  (EIA press release for the November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, Nov. 10, 2026)

EIA STEO, on winter Henry Hub: “We forecast the Henry Hub spot price for natural gas to average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% lower than we expected last month.”  (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook overview, November 2026)

EIA STEO, on end-November gas storage: “We now expect 3,840 billion cubic feet of natural gas will be held in storage at the end of November, 67 Bcf more than we forecast last month.”  (EIA STEO natural-gas chapter, November 2026)

OilPrice snapshot, late morning Nov. 11: “Brent crude rose nearly 3% on Wednesday to $93.90 per barrel at 11:18 a.m. ET … WTI rose nearly 2% to $87.98, and heating oil, the U.S. diesel benchmark, jumped 4.1%.”  (OilPrice.com, Nov. 11, 2026. Slight typographic smoothing of the source’s “$93.90per”.)

Appendix C | Key data table (as-of dates)

Metric Value As-of / source
AAA national regular gasoline $3.9429/gal AAA, dated 11/11/26; retrieved Nov. 11, 2026, CST. Second day under $4
First day national regular under $4 Nov. 10, 2026, at $3.9788; first time since July 19 AAA Oregon/Idaho release, Nov. 10; AAA yesterday column; CNBC, Nov. 10
AAA national diesel $6.1306/gal Same AAA table
Regular, yesterday / week ago / month ago / year ago $3.9788 / $4.1239 / $4.3585 / $3.0719 Same AAA table. Month-ago change about −42 cents; year-ago about +87 cents
Diesel, yesterday / week ago / month ago / year ago $6.1572 / $6.2748 / $6.2771 / $3.7480 Same AAA table. Year-ago change about +$2.38
AAA record national diesel $6.5276 on Sept. 22, 2026 Same AAA table
Brent, OilPrice snapshot About $93.90/bbl, nearly +3% OilPrice.com, 11:18 a.m. ET / 10:18 a.m. CT, Nov. 11, 2026. Intraday, not a settlement
WTI, OilPrice snapshot About $87.98/bbl, nearly +2% Same OilPrice snapshot
Heating oil, OilPrice snapshot +4.1% Same OilPrice snapshot; U.S. diesel futures benchmark
Brent, later live check $92.40, +$0.91 or +0.99%; day’s range $91.48–$94.73; traded as high as $94.73 before paring gains Yahoo Finance BZ=F, 2:56:44 p.m. EST / 1:56 p.m. CST, Nov. 11, 2026, market open. Official Nov. 11 settlements not yet posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened for this update
WTI, later live check $86.26, +$0.22 or +0.26%; day’s range $85.81–$88.73 Yahoo Finance CL=F Dec 26, 2:57:52 p.m. EST / 1:57 p.m. CST, Nov. 11, 2026, market open
November slide, as reported Brent about −21%; WTI about −17% since the start of November OilPrice and CNBC, Nov. 11, 2026
Tuesday, Nov. 10 settlements Brent $91.49, WTI $86.04; both at their lowest since Aug. 31 Yonhap, via Hanmi Ilbo, Nov. 11. Corroborated by Sprague Oil MarketWatch, Nov. 11 (prior-session recap)
October ships attacked 37 ships were attacked, the most in any month since the war began Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as reported by CNBC and OilPrice. Primary WINEP release not independently retrieved
UKMTO tanker incident Struck by an unknown projectile, 19 NM NE of Lima, Oman UKMTO Warning 201-26, Nov. 10, 2026, 1338 UTC
IRGC tanker claims Two tankers; one hit naval mines, the other caught fire after an incident, on an “unauthorized” route IRGC Navy via Xinhua and Mehr, Nov. 10, 2026. IRGC account, not merged with the UKMTO report
LSEG on a deal and Hormuz flows An increase in Hormuz flows would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs, and shipowners’ willingness to take the risk LSEG Oil Research, Nov. 10, 2026, as quoted by CNBC
API crude inventories, week ending Nov. 6 +9 million barrels (industry estimate) API as reported by OilPrice and CNBC. Official EIA weekly data delayed to Nov. 12, 12:00 p.m. ET, because of Veterans Day
EIA 2027 retail diesel forecast $5.03/gal, raised from $4.49 EIA November 2026 STEO, released Nov. 10; inputs finalized Nov. 5
EIA 2027 retail gasoline forecast $3.73/gal, raised from $3.56 Same STEO
EIA Nov.–March Henry Hub forecast $2.87/MMBtu, 16% below the October forecast (and 36% below last winter) Same STEO, natural-gas chapter
EIA end-November gas storage forecast 3,840 Bcf, 67 Bcf above the October outlook Same STEO. Forecast, not a measured stock
EIA Brent spot path Spot price, which EIA says averaged $124 in October; $104 in November, $99 in December; “near $100” for the rest of this year; $86 in 2027 as more Middle East oil flows and global inventories rebuild Same STEO. Spot-price forecast, not comparable to the futures quotes above, and not a market call in this article

Appendix D | Background

The November oil slide and Wednesday’s bounce. OilPrice.com and CNBC both describe a sharp November decline in crude — about 21% for Brent and 17% for WTI — on hopes that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was winding down. CNBC described Wednesday as a rebound from two-month lows. Brent traded as high as $94.73 before paring gains. The OilPrice late-morning snapshot and a later Yahoo Finance check at 1:56 p.m. CST (2:56 p.m. ET) are both intraday readings, not a settlement. Official Nov. 11 settlements had not yet posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened for this update. Both benchmarks settled Tuesday at their lowest since Aug. 31, Brent at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04, Yonhap reported. They can diverge through the session and should be refreshed at publication.

Rezaei’s interview. Mohsen Rezaei is secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. His comments were made Nov. 10 to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen TV. He rejected U.S. claims of continuing talks and of a meeting in Qatar. This article uses the English wording carried the same day by Mehr News and Press TV, and corroborated in substance by Al Jazeera on Nov. 11. The exact quoted sentence is “a pure lie,” singular. English renderings vary; Tasnim, via Anadolu, rendered it “complete lies.” Mehr and Press TV themselves use “pure lies” in their own narration. OilPrice’s “pure lies” wording is treated as a paraphrase, not the verbatim quotation. The Doha-meeting report is cited via Iran International (Kalin, as reported by the Türkiye newspaper). Araghchi also denied a planned meeting (Anadolu). Qatar’s foreign ministry says mediation is ongoing after the prime minister met Vance and President Trump on Monday.

The Strait of Hormuz. EIA’s November STEO and contemporaneous reporting describe ongoing shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz after a conflict that those sources date to Feb. 28, 2026. This article does not independently map the war, does not treat “the strait is closed” as a simple on/off fact, and does not merge separate shipping incidents. The October tally of 37 ships attacked is cited to the Washington Institute as reported by CNBC and OilPrice. The UKMTO projectile report and the IRGC mine-and-fire claims are kept on separate lines.

The official fuel and gas outlook. EIA’s November STEO is a forecast published Nov. 10, with model inputs finalized Nov. 5, so it does not specifically account for this week’s comments. It is friendlier on winter Henry Hub and end-November storage, and more pessimistic on 2027 retail diesel and gasoline than the October outlook, because EIA now expects global refined-fuel supplies to stay tight through the end of 2027. Those 2027 pump figures are forecasts, not today’s AAA averages. EIA’s Brent path in the same outlook is a forecast for the Brent spot price, which EIA says averaged $124 in October, and is not comparable to the futures quotes in the body.

Appendix E | Methodology and limits

  • This is a market-and-consumer article about a denial of talks, a same-day crude bounce, and the pump prices already on AAA’s board. It is not a war-start story, not a forecast of a return to $100 oil, and not a sourced pump-price-move story.
  • Primary sources were opened and checked on the afternoon of Nov. 11, 2026, Central Time: OilPrice.com, CNBC, AAA Fuel Prices, the AAA Oregon/Idaho Nov. 10 release, Yahoo Finance (BZ=F and CL=F), Mehr News and Press TV for Rezaei’s wording, Al Jazeera for corroboration, Iran International, Anadolu, and Qatar’s foreign ministry for the talks-claim context, Yonhap via Hanmi Ilbo and Sprague Energy for Tuesday’s settlements, the UKMTO Warning 201-26 notice (official URL in Appendix A), Xinhua and Mehr for the IRGC statement, and EIA’s STEO press release, overview, natural-gas chapter, and the downloaded November STEO PDF. Official Nov. 11 settlements had not posted on the CME, ICE, EIA, or wire pages opened at the 1:56 p.m. CST check; a blocked CME settlements URL was not worked around.
  • Every price in the body is timestamped. AAA averages are the official national daily figures dated 11/11/26; the first day under $4 was Nov. 10, at $3.9788, for the first time since July 19. Crude and heating-oil figures from OilPrice are the 10:18 a.m. CST (11:18 a.m. ET) snapshot. The later Brent and WTI figures are a Yahoo Finance live check at 1:56–1:57 p.m. CST (2:56–2:57 p.m. ET), while the market was still open and official settlements had not posted. AAA national averages were re-checked and remained dated 11/11/26, with regular still $3.9429; no newer daily posting was found. The Tuesday, Nov. 10 settlements (Brent $91.49, WTI $86.04, lowest since Aug. 31) are from Yonhap, via Hanmi Ilbo, and are corroborated by Sprague’s Nov. 11 prior-session recap. Intraday prices are not settlements and should be refreshed at publication. Body times are written as Central Time, with Eastern in parentheses.
  • Month-ago and year-ago cent changes for gasoline and diesel are simple arithmetic from AAA’s published table, rounded in the prose to about 42 cents, about 87 cents, and about $2.38.
  • Rezaei is quoted from the English text carried by Mehr and Press TV, not from a looser paraphrase. He rejected U.S. claims of talks. OilPrice’s “pure lies” wording is not treated as the verbatim quotation. English renderings vary; Tasnim, via Anadolu, rendered it “complete lies.” Mehr and Press TV themselves use “pure lies” in their own narration. The Doha-meeting report is attributed to Kalin via Iran International, citing the Türkiye newspaper, which was not independently opened.
  • The October tally of 37 ships attacked is attributed to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy as reported by CNBC and OilPrice. A standalone Washington Institute release or data page with that count was not independently retrieved.
  • The UKMTO projectile incident and the IRGC two-tanker claims are reported separately and are not merged. IRGC statements are labeled as IRGC claims.
  • The LSEG Oil Research sentence is quoted exactly as it appears in CNBC. The underlying LSEG note was not independently retrieved.
  • No source opened for this article estimates a cents-per-gallon retail move from Wednesday’s crude bounce. None is invented. $100-oil and wider-war paths are framed as questions, not forecasts. EIA’s own “near $100” remainder-of-year Brent path is reported separately as a Brent spot-price forecast, not as a futures call, and with the Nov. 5 input cutoff disclosed.
  • The American Petroleum Institute’s 9-million-barrel build is labeled an industry estimate. Official EIA weekly inventory data for the week ending Nov. 6 is scheduled for Nov. 12 because Nov. 11 is Veterans Day.
  • EIA STEO figures were checked against the Nov. 10 press release, the STEO overview, the natural-gas chapter, and the November STEO PDF. The forecast’s Nov. 5 input cutoff is disclosed in the body.
  • OilPrice’s characterization of AAA’s one-day gasoline drop as the largest in 18 years was not independently verified and is not used as a fact. An Allianz Trade damage figure cited by OilPrice was not independently verified and is not used.
  • Access dates are Nov. 11, 2026, Central Time. An access gap is not proof that a document does not exist.
  • Not investment advice. Publishing remains an editorial decision.
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