December Henry Hub natural gas futures have climbed to a seven-week high, driven by a near-term cold spell across key heating-demand regions and record-level LNG export flows. The rally comes even as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has sharply lowered its winter price outlook, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to short-term weather while longer-term supply fundamentals remain loose.
The December contract settled at $3.22 per MMBtu on November 11, up nearly 13% since the first trading day of the month (November 2). On November 12, prices opened at $3.24 and reached an intraday high of $3.32, according to the American Gas Association’s latest Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Market participants attributed the move to forecasts calling for below-normal temperatures across central and eastern states through roughly November 20, which is expected to lift residential and commercial heating demand after a mild start to the month.Aga
LNG exports have provided additional support. Feedgas deliveries to U.S. liquefaction facilities hit a new daily record of 20.3 Bcf per day on November 7 and stayed above 20 Bcf/d for three consecutive days before moderating slightly. Year-to-date through early November, feedgas has averaged well above 2025 levels, and AGA data show LNG exports up more than 18% year-over-year through October. Expanded capacity at facilities including Plaquemines (which began commercial operations on its first phase at the end of October) and recovering flows at other plants have kept export demand robust even as domestic prices remain relatively moderate by historical standards.Aga
The short-term price strength, however, is occurring against a softer official outlook. In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook released November 10, the EIA cut its forecast for average Henry Hub spot prices during the winter heating season (November 2026–March 2027) by 16% to $2.87 per MMBtu. The agency also lowered its 2027 annual average to $2.88 per MMBtu, citing a warm start to November that left more gas in storage than previously expected and continued strong production growth that is projected to outpace rising domestic demand and exports. EIA now expects end-of-November storage to be roughly 67 Bcf higher than its October forecast and anticipates production growth will keep the market relatively well supplied into 2027.Eia
NOAA outlooks reinforce the temporary nature of the cold. While near-term forecasts support cooler conditions in parts of the central and eastern United States through mid-to-late November, the broader 8–14-day and longer-range guidance favors above-normal temperatures across much of the northern and central United States heading into Thanksgiving and beyond. Early-November temperatures were already well above normal in most regions, which helped build storage and contributed to the downward revisions in the EIA’s price path.Aga
U.S. dry natural gas production remains elevated. Year-to-date production through mid-November was running more than 4% above the same period in 2025, and EIA raised its 2026 average production forecast. Storage inventories as of late October stood 1.4% above the five-year average (though still below year-ago levels), providing a buffer against any brief demand spikes.
In short, colder weather and record LNG flows have given the prompt month a lift and pushed futures to a seven-week high, but the move is widely viewed as temporary. With EIA projecting winter averages near $2.87 and 2027 prices under $3, and with production continuing to expand alongside growing but not overwhelming export demand, the market appears positioned for a relatively comfortable winter barring an extended and severe cold outbreak.
Appendix: Sources and Links
- American Gas Association, Natural Gas Market Indicators – November 12, 2026: https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-november-12-2026/
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook – Natural Gas (November 2026): https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
- EIA Press Release, November 10, 2026: “EIA raises November natural gas storage forecast after warm start to month”: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press594.php
- Supporting market context on recent futures strength and LNG flows drawn from contemporaneous reporting referenced in the AGA analysis and public price data.
