We have a new website rolling out this week, and I am showing off the new template. We also have 9 huge stories.
When you have the IEA last week setting the stage for energy lockdowns, buckle up. I do not think many people are up to the lockdowns again. But I would take this as a warning to make sure your tornado and grid outage packages are ready. If we have some emergencies with the grid, it is always great to be prepared.
1. Energy Supply Disruptions
The transcript extensively covers critical disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly:
- The Strait of Hormuz closure affecting 20% of global oil and LNG trade
- Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG facility shutdown in Australia due to storm damage
- Iranian missile strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure
- Collective reduction of global LNG supply by up to 35 million tons
2. Geopolitical Energy Impacts
- U.S.-Israel conflict creating energy market instability
- India escorting its own LNG tankers through the Strait
- Saudi Arabia’s strategic pipeline bypassing the Strait (7 million barrels/day capacity)
- Regional tensions affecting energy infrastructure
3. Regional Energy Crises
- California: Facing severe energy crisis with refineries targeted for closure under CARB regulations
- Venezuela: U.S. efforts to restore electricity infrastructure by removing China from El Guri hydroelectric dam
4. Energy Transition Strategies
- U.S. oil majors prioritizing fiscal discipline and core oil/gas growth over low-carbon investments
- European companies taking more aggressive low-carbon transition approaches
- Nations like Japan reversing coal phase-outs and restarting coal plants for energy security
5. Sustainability & Environmental Concerns
- Wind energy supply chain issues (balsa wood sourcing linked to Amazon deforestation and organized crime)
- Non-recyclable wind turbine blade disposal challenges
1.What are the potential timelines for energy disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, halting nearly all tanker traffic through the critical chokepoint that normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG trade, along with roughly 5 million barrels per day (mbd) of refined petroleum products. JP Morgan Commodities Research has modeled the ripple effects, highlighting how existing in-transit cargoes will deplete at different rates around the world based on voyage times. A widely circulated map from their analysis (shared on X by @pplsartofwar) illustrates oil flows from the Persian Gulf and projects when “most deliveries stop” for major importing regions.
Regional Timelines for Supply Disruptions (Crude Oil Flows)The JP Morgan map (sourced from Kpler data) traces Persian Gulf oil routes in red and overlays dashed circles showing depletion timelines for pre-closure cargoes:Asia: Most deliveries stop April 1, 2026. This includes major importers like China (5.2 mbd), India (2.3 mbd), Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations. Proximity means Asia feels the pinch first and hardest—90% of Hormuz exports are destined here.
Europe: Most deliveries stop April 10, 2026. Flows to the UK, Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, and others (totaling hundreds of thousands of bpd) will taper off next.
North America (primarily U.S.): Most deliveries stop April 15, 2026. U.S. imports from the region (0.85 mbd shown) are smaller but still significant for certain grades.
Australia (and New Zealand): Most deliveries stop April 20, 2026. Australia (0.95 mbd) sits at the end of the supply chain, making it the last major region affected.
These dates assume no resumption of flows and factor in sailing times from the Gulf. Earlier JP Morgan notes (mid-March) already flagged that Asia-bound supplies could run dry “this week” and Europe-bound next, with the April projections reflecting full inventory drawdowns.
Product-Specific Impacts: Diesel, Gasoline, Jet Fuel, Naphtha, and Others
While crude dominates headlines, JP Morgan emphasizes that the Strait is a major artery for refined products—roughly 5 mbd pre-crisis. The closure has already triggered refinery outages (up to 2 mbd in the Middle East) and production shut-ins (now approaching 6.5–12 mbd globally, creating a 6–7 mbd supply deficit below demand). Shortages are acute in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks.
Key product breakdowns and regional effects (per JP Morgan and related analysis):
Diesel: Europe is particularly exposed, sourcing about one-third of its diesel imports from the Gulf. Shortages here could hit trucking, agriculture, and heating, exacerbating post-Russian import ban vulnerabilities. Global diesel markets are already seeing sharp tightness.
Jet Fuel (Aviation Fuel): Europe again relies heavily on Middle East exports (one-third of imports). Asia is also vulnerable. Rising prices have already triggered flight cancellations in affected regions; JP Morgan notes this as a high-impact area alongside diesel.
Naphtha: One of the hardest-hit products. Critical for petrochemicals (plastics, ethylene, etc.), it heavily affects Asia’s industrial and manufacturing sectors. Disruptions ripple into fertilizers, packaging, and autos. JP Morgan flags naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel as seeing “particularly severe” impacts.
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas): Major shortages noted globally, affecting heating, cooking, and petrochemical feedstocks—especially in Asia and parts of Europe.
Gasoline and Other Petroleum Products:
Less emphasized in JP Morgan’s product alerts than distillates, but still part of the 5 mbd refined flow. Broader crude deficits will pressure gasoline blends indirectly, though U.S. domestic production offers some buffer.
If they are talking about lock downs, just be prepared as I said above.
2.Saudi Pipeline Hits 7 Million BPD Goal Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz
In a remarkable display of strategic foresight and engineering resilience, Saudi Arabia has ramped its East-West Pipeline—also known as the Petroline—to full capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), fully bypassing the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
This milestone comes at a critical moment. The ongoing Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to many commercial shipments, threatening roughly 15–21 million bpd of global crude flows that normally pass through this vital chokepoint. Yet Saudi Aramco has executed a textbook contingency plan, redirecting massive volumes of Arab Light and Extra Light crude from eastern fields at Abqaiq across 1,200 kilometers of desert to the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu.
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed earlier this month that the pipeline would hit its mechanical limit “in the coming days” as customers rerouted. Today, Bloomberg reports it is operating at that exact 7 million bpd threshold, keeping Saudi exports—and by extension, global oil markets—moving when they otherwise might have ground to a halt.
This is more than just a pipeline story. It’s a masterclass in long-term energy security planning. Built in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War precisely to hedge against Hormuz risks, the East-West system has been steadily upgraded over the decades. Drag-reducing agents, terminal expansions, and emergency conversions have pushed its nameplate capacity to today’s levels. While Yanbu’s loading capacity imposes practical limits (exports recently hit record levels of around 3.6–4 million bpd), the infrastructure is delivering exactly what it was designed for: uninterrupted supply to Asia and beyond.
3.Chevron’s Wheatstone Gas and LNG Export Facility in Australia Shut Down Due to Storm Damage
A powerful Tropical Cyclone Narelle has forced Chevron to shut down production at its Wheatstone LNG facility in Western Australia, adding fresh pressure to an already strained global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. The outage, which began on March 26-27, 2026, stems from storm damage to the offshore platform and onshore processing plant near Onslow.
The Wheatstone project consists of two LNG trains with a combined nameplate capacity of 8.9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) and a domestic gas plant. Chevron holds approximately 64.14% equity in the project.
Outage Details and Expected Downtime
An outage hit the offshore Wheatstone platform (located ~225 km off the coast) around midday local time on March 26, suspending both LNG and domestic gas production. All personnel were safely demobilized beforehand, with operations managed remotely.
As of March 29, Chevron confirmed that equipment damage from the cyclone is hampering restart efforts. Comprehensive inspections are underway at both the offshore platform and onshore facilities. The company stated that it will likely take “a number of weeks” or “several weeks” before full production resumes.
(Note: Chevron’s larger Gorgon LNG facility — 15.6 mtpa capacity — also experienced a temporary outage but has now returned all three trains to operation.)
Damage Assessment
The full extent of storm-related damage (to equipment and infrastructure) is still being evaluated. No specific repair cost figures have been released, but the multi-site assessment and need for safe repairs point to a complex recovery process rather than a quick fix. This is distinct from catastrophic damage scenarios; it is weather-induced operational disruption requiring targeted fixes.
Impact on the Already Stressed Global LNG Market
Australia’s Wheatstone and Gorgon plants together account for more than 5% of global LNG supply. Even a temporary outage of this scale tightens the market further at a critical time.
The LNG market was already reeling from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Key disruptions include:
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz (handling ~20% of global LNG and oil flows).
Iranian missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, sidelining ~17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity (approximately 12.8–13 mtpa) for an estimated 3–5 years.
Analysts (S&P Global, ICIS, Kpler, Rystad, Wood Mackenzie) have collectively slashed 2026 global LNG supply outlooks by up to 35 million tonnes — roughly 500 cargoes.
This has driven Asian spot prices (JKM marker) sharply higher — reaching multi-year highs above $20–25/MMBtu in recent weeks, with some forecasts exceeding $26/MMBtu through Q2.
The Wheatstone outage, while smaller in volume (~0.5–0.7 mtpa equivalent if offline 3–4 weeks), exacerbates the tightness because it removes a reliable Australian supply precisely when buyers in Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternatives.
Calculated Production Loss and Chevron Q2 Revenue Impact Daily capacity: 8.9 mtpa ÷ 365 ≈ 24,380 tonnes per day (tpd) total.
Equity share (Chevron 64.14%): ~15,640 tpd.
Assumed outage duration: 3–4 weeks (conservative based on “several weeks” guidance) = 21–28 days.28-day scenario → ~682,000 tonnes total lost production.
Chevron equity portion → ~437,000 tonnes lost.
Using a conservative market-equivalent price of ~$960 per tonne (derived from recent JKM ~$20/MMBtu and standard LNG energy content of ~48–52 MMBtu per tonne):
Potential gross revenue loss (industry-wide): ~$650–700 million for a 4-week outage.
Chevron’s equity share impact: ~$400–450 million in foregone revenue (pre-variable costs and taxes).
4.US Removes China from El Guri Hydro Dam in Venezuela
In a significant geopolitical and energy-sector shift, the United States has directed the removal of Chinese contractors from maintenance and rehabilitation work at Venezuela’s El Guri Hydroelectric Dam—the third-largest in the world after China’s Three Gorges and the Itaipu Dam on the Brazil-Paraguay border. American engineering giants Siemens and General Electric (GE) have now been contracted to evaluate and rehabilitate the dam and Venezuela’s entire national electrical grid (Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, or SEN).
This development, reported widely on Venezuelan social media and confirmed through multiple independent accounts in the past 48 hours, follows U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s high-level visit to Caracas in February 2026 and the issuance of OFAC General License 48A (GL 48A). The license explicitly authorizes U.S. persons and companies to provide goods, technology, software, and services for the generation, transmission, storage, or distribution of electricity in Venezuela—opening the door for American private-sector involvement in the country’s chronically unstable power system.
What This Means for Energy Markets and Venezuelans
For Venezuelans, this is potentially the most tangible step toward ending the electricity crisis that has defined daily life for over a decade. For global energy markets, it signals that Venezuela’s vast hydro resources—and the oil production they support—may soon operate under competent technical management rather than political patronage.
The Chinese are out at El Guri. American engineering excellence is in. The lights may finally stay on.
5.California’s Oil and Gas Crisis: Expert Warns of Full Scope of the Potential Danger
ENB Pub Note: This article is from the California Globe by Katy Grimes, and she has appeared on the Energy News Beat several times discussing the California energy crisis caused by Gavin Newsom. David Blackmon, Stu Turley, and Mike Ariza will be recording a podcast on this issue on Tuesday.
An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes.” ~ Sun Tzu
Nearly two weeks ago President Donald Trump announced he was invoking the Defense Production Act, and ordered the override of California laws blocking the restart of offshore oil production and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System to restart an oil pipeline project off the Santa Barbara coast, in the name of the “National Defense Resources Preparedness.”
U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright directed Sable Offshore Corp. to restore operations of the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System to address supply disruption risks caused by California policies that have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil.
While California’s governor and Democrat-dominated Legislature have ignored the oil and gas crisis they have inflicted on California, oil experts have been warning that California’s faux “climate crisis” was leading to gas and oil shortages, dramatically increasing gas prices and energy costs, and a national security crisis.
We’ve been talking to the experts and warning for years, that California’s push to ban gas powered automobiles in favor of electric vehicles and an all-electric energy grid was not only preposterous, it would lead to potential economic collapse.
Chevron CEO Andy Walz was also warning of the impending crisis, as recently as September.
As petroleum expert Mike Ariza told the Globe this week, that was prior to the closure of Phillips 66 and Valero in Benicia. When the Phillips 66 plant closed both myself and my team were concerned that we were at or near our infrastructure limit to off load fuel tankers.
David Blackmon, Mike Ariza, and I will be doing a podcast on this critical issue this week.
6.US Oil Majors Leading the Way on Fiscal Responsibility
7.Countries Like Japan Are Removing Barriers to Ramp Up Coal Plants Amid Global LNG Crisis
8.Wind Energy is Not as Eco Friendly as They Say
he wind energy industry loves to portray itself as the ultimate green savior—clean, renewable, and kind to the planet. But a closer look at its supply chain reveals a dirty secret hidden in the Amazon rainforest. Balsa wood, prized for its lightweight strength, forms the core of many wind turbine blades. The boom in wind installations has triggered a surge in balsa harvesting that is devastating forests, fueling organized crime, and leaving non-recyclable blades to pile up in landfills.
A recent post on X by Peter Clack (@PeterDClack) pulls no punches on this issue. It highlights how roughly 91% of forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon is now linked to organized crime, according to monitoring agencies. No longer just small-scale farming or palm oil, this is militarized drug operations. Up to 70% of “legal” balsa exports are likely laundered wild timber. Logging tracks have become arteries for the drug trade, with cartels like Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital trading precursor chemicals for illegal Amazonian gold and timber. When we subsidize wind turbine blades, we’re financing global organized crime.
The Balsa Boom: From Plantations to Rainforest Plunder
Balsa trees (Ochroma pyramidale) grow fast—ready for harvest in 3–7 years—and are native to the tropical Americas. Ecuador dominates global supply (over 90% of exports), with much of it historically from coastal plantations. But the wind industry’s explosive growth, especially in China, outstripped sustainable supply. The 2019–2020 “balsa fever” sent loggers rushing into the Ecuadorian Amazon, including protected areas like the UNESCO Yasuní Biosphere Reserve, and spilling into Peru and Colombia.
Wild balsa is now blended into “legal” exports at rates of 10–70%, often smuggled and laundered. Investigative reports from the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) document incursions into indigenous territories (Achuar, Kichwa, Shuar, Waorani) and national parks. Logging roads fragment habitats, enable further illegal activities, and leave communities with pennies per tree while facing violence, drug abuse, and displacement.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: How Many Trees, and Where Do They End Up?
Global wind installations hit a record ~127 GW in 2024, with 23,098 new turbines deployed worldwide.
Not every blade uses balsa anymore (some manufacturers have shifted to polymer foams), but the wind sector still drives the majority of global balsa demand—estimated at 55% of production.
Balsa per turbine: A typical set of three blades for an 8 MW turbine uses about 5.8–6 tons (roughly 39–40 m³ at 150 kg/m³ density), equivalent to 40 mature balsa trees. Larger blades (up to 100m) can require even more.
Annual harvest for wind: Ecuador produces ~500,000 m³ of balsa annually. With wind accounting for ~55% of that, consumption equates to over 1 million trees harvested yearly for turbine blades. Up to half a million or more are illegally logged from Amazon rainforests, according to multiple analyses tying production shortfalls directly to wild harvesting.
These trees are “created” (harvested) annually to feed new turbine production. But here’s the eco-irony: wind turbine blades are notoriously difficult to recycle. They’re composites of fiberglass, epoxy resins, and balsa wood bonded together. The vast majority end up in landfills—safe in terms of toxicity, but a massive waste of space and resources. Projections show tens of millions of tons of blade waste globally by 2050. The balsa harvested today will largely follow the same path in 20–25 years when those turbines are decommissioned.
Damage to the Amazon Rainforest
The environmental toll goes far beyond the balsa trees themselves:
Deforestation and habitat loss: Illegal logging invades primary forests, riverbanks, and islands in the Amazon basin. It fragments ecosystems, threatens over 130 endangered species, and accelerates erosion and biodiversity collapse in places like Yasuní.
Indigenous impacts: Communities report forced sales, low pay (as little as 22 cents per tree), and social breakdown. Logging often occurs without consent on indigenous lands.
Crime nexus: As the X post notes, balsa logging roads double as drug trafficking routes. Cartels launder timber, barter for chemicals, and control entire illegal economies—turning “green” energy subsidies into funding for organized crime.
Broader Amazon crisis: While balsa isn’t the sole driver of deforestation, it contributes to the 91% organized-crime-linked loss in Brazil and similar patterns in Ecuador/Peru. Plantations themselves often replace primary forest.
Proponents claim balsa plantations are sustainable and that foam alternatives are rising. But the data shows demand still overwhelms plantations, pushing illegal wild harvest—and the crime and ecological damage that comes with it.
Time to Rethink “Green” Energy
Wind power generates electricity without direct emissions, but its full lifecycle—from Amazon logging to landfill-bound blades—tells a different story. Subsidies and mandates are driving destruction in one of the planet’s most vital ecosystems while financing criminal networks. True environmental stewardship requires looking beyond the turbine blades to the hidden costs upstream and downstream.
When you add up the critical pile of waste from the blades in bone yards, and the estimated 89 billion dollar liability for land reclamation on the wind mills in the United States alone, you start to see a not-so-eco-friendly picture. On top of this, the true cost of renewables not being counted in grid resilience, you have yet more CO2 being produced when wind and solar are connected to the grid. That is another huge topic for a longer article.
Policymakers, utilities, and consumers deserve transparency. Until the industry proves it can source materials responsibly and recycle blades at scale, claims of being “eco-friendly” ring hollow.
9.Global Energy Domino is Separating Countries Into Those Who Survive Or Not
A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.
https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.
A shout-out to our New Sponsor, Data2 – We will be running an AI Centered Series and have lots of data rolling out!. https://www.data2.ai/resources/the-decision-lag-report
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