He who panicked first panicked best.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
There’s so little demand at current prices, and so many homes sitting on the market, that sellers are pulling them off the market “in frustration,” a phrase realtor.com used to describe the situation in a blog post. Others aren’t putting their homes on the market but are hoping for better days or whatever. The issue is that prices have shot up to such ridiculous levels that they’re now way too high, and the buyers willing to pay those too-high prices have already bought, and now demand has vanished at those prices, though there would be plenty of demand at much lower prices.
Home-sellers that sold in 2024 and in 2023 at near peak prices got out the door with their money. He who panics first panics best. Since then, prices have drifted lower, and condo prices in many markets are now plunging – see price charts at the bottom for Fort Myers and Saint Petersburg.
In the Tampa-Saint Petersburg-Clearwater metro, active listings jumped by 28% in June from the already multi-year high levels in June last year, to 20,128 homes, the highest in the data from realtor.com. That dataset goes back to 2016. Compared to June 2019, inventory was up by 42%; compared to June 2018, by 49%; compared to June 2017, by 51% — massive inventories, at a time when sales have plunged.
Inventories in 2021 (yellow line at the bottom) and in early 2022 (black line at the bottom) were as close to zero as they could possibly get – not because homebuilders hadn’t built enough homes, and not because there was a “housing shortage” or whatever, but because there was an extra-special buying-frenzy, driven by the Fed’s reckless monetary policies, where people, who’d just bought a home and moved into it, held on to their now vacant home, instead of putting it on the market, in order to ride the enormous price spike up all the way since money was nearly free.
Those who have sold their vacant homes by now came out way ahead. Those that bought them, not so much. And those that haven’t sold them yet, well, they’re facing an entirely different market with plenty of demand, but at lower prices.
The median number of days homes sat on the market before they got pulled off the market or before they sold spiked to 68 days, the highest for any in June in the data from realtor.com, which goes back to 2016, up from 57 days in June 2024:
In the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro, active listings jumped by 34% year-over-year in June, to 14,391 homes, by far the highest in the data from realtor.com which goes back to 2016.
Compared to June 2019, inventory was up by 45%; compared to June 2018, by 54%; compared to June 2017, by 39%.
Homes sat on the market for 70 days before they got pulled off the market or were sold, the highest for any in June in the data from realtor.com, which goes back to 2016, up from 55 days in June 2024 and up from the 54-56 range for the Junes in 2017-2019:
In the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro, active listings jumped by 30% year-over-year, to 12,892 homes, the highest June in the data from realtor.com.
Compared to June 2019, inventory was up by 46%; compared to June 2018, by 52%; compared to June 2017, by 57%.
Days on the market jumped to 95 days, up from 79 days a year ago, matching June 2020, and both were the highest since the data from realtor.com.
In the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro, active listings rose by 25% from June last year, which had already been the highest June in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016; to an even higher 10,163 homes.
Compared to the Junes in 2017-2019, inventory was up by 37-38%. Days on the market rose to 77 days, from 65 a year ago.
In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro, active listings jumped by 35% year-over-year in May, to 51,139 homes, the highest June in the dataset from realtor.com, which goes back to 2016.
Compared to the Junes in 2017-2019, inventory was up by 7-10%. Days on the market jumped to 83 days, from 68 days a year ago:
In the Jacksonville metro, active listings jumped by 24% year-over-year, to 9,965 homes, the highest in the data from realtor.com.
Compared to June 2019, inventory was up by 25%; compared to June 2018, by 31%; compared to June 2017, by 36%.
Days on the market jumped to 67 days, from 55 days a year ago, and from the range of 57-60 days in 2017-2019.
In the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach metro, active listings rose by 23% year-over-year to 7,021 homes, the highest in the dataset from realtor.com.
Compared to June 2019, inventory was up by 39%; compared to June 2018, by 46%; compared to June 2017, by 62%.
Days on the market jumped to 79 days, up from 66 days a year ago. In the data that goes back to 2016, only June 2020 was higher. In the Junes of 2017-2019, the range was 63-70 days.
In the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro, active listings rose by 21% from the already extreme levels last June, to 5,189 listings, the most in this dataset that goes back to 2016.
Inventory has more than doubled compared to June 2018, and was up by 85% from the Junes in 2017 and 2019.
Anything can be sold if the price is right (low enough). But where is that?
After a historic price explosion came the market’s search for reality. But where is that reality? For example, Saint Petersburg and Fort Myers. Both feature among the 20 bigger cities where condo prices already dropped by 10% to 23%.
In Saint Petersburg, condo prices have plunged by 20% through May, from the peak in October 2022, and are back where they’d been in October 2021, unwinding about one-third of the 100% price explosion since 2017.
In Fort Myers, condo prices have plunged by 16% since July 2022 after one of the craziest and silliest home-price explosions ever. There is a reality somewhere, and the market is trying to find it:
And in case you missed it: Inventories of Homes for Sale in Big California Markets Jump to Highest in Years, Days on the Market Soar, Demand Withered.
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:
